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Cablegate: Mozambique - Petroleum Exploration Rights Interest

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MAPUTO 000726

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
AF/S - HTREGER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EMIN ENRG EPET ETRD EINV MZ
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE - PETROLEUM EXPLORATION RIGHTS INTEREST
TWO U.S. COMPANIES; ENERGY/MINING OVERVIEW

Sensitive But Unclassified. Confidential Business
Information. Not for placement on the Internet.

1. (SBU) Summary: The GRM will open a bidding round in July
for deepwater exploration rights off the coast of the
northern province of Cabo Delgado. Two American companies,
Anadarko and Vanco, have indicated to the Embassy and the GRM
that they believe the region may have oil, and plan to enter
bids. They are the first U.S. companies to show serious
interest in oil exploration in Mozambique in nearly a decade.
Mozambique has negotiated contracts in recent years with
various international firms for exploration and production of
natural gas, titanium sands, and coal. Several of these
projects are now starting to produce, while others remain
delayed due to lack of available power sources and/or
investment. American investment in these sectors is minimal.
End Summary.

Oil
----
2. (U) On May 29 Minister of Natural Resources (MNR)
Esperanca Bias announced that four offshore lots in the
Rovuma Basin region of Cabo Delgado province will be opened
up for competitive bidding by companies wishing to explore
for oil and gas. The GRM will announce terms of the bidding
process in July; according to ministry sources, companies
will have six months in which to submit bids. The Rovuma
river demarcates the Mozambique-Tanzania border; the Rovuma
Basin exploration area in question lies south of that border.
Two of the lots for bid (#1 and #4) are located offshore
just north of the city of Mocimboa de Praia, and two (#3 and
#6), are located further south, off the provincial capital,
Pemba. The MNR announcement was made shortly before the
inauguration of the Ninth African Oil & Gas Trade & Finance
Conference, held in Maputo from May 31 through June 3. Many
international companies interested in the bid lots were
present at the conference.

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3. (SBU) Two American companies, Vanco Energy Company and
Anadarko International Energy Company, attended and indicated
that they plan to submit bids on lots #1 and #4. Vanco was
particularly aggressive at the conference, hosting a
reception at which company founder and president Gene Van
Dyke made his interest publicly known. During the conference
Mr. Van Dyke met with Minister Bias to get a better sense of
how the process would work, and also met with Embassy
officials. Vanco is the largest holder of deepwater
exploration acreage in Africa, with holdings in five
countries. Notably, it has partnered with ExxonMobil to
explore the Majunga Salt Basin off the northwest shore of
Madagascar, directly across the Madagascar Channel from the
Rovuma Basin of Mozambique. In recent years Vanco has
started drilling in its Morocco and Gabon properties.

4. (SBU) Anadarko took a more low-key approach to lobbying
during the conference, but company interest was just as high.
Anadarko representatives plan to return to Mozambique in
July once the bidding terms are released. Anadarko is
already a major producer in Africa, engaged in onshore
production in Algeria and offshore drilling in Tunisia and
Gabon. Anadarko is a larger company than Vanco, producing
considerably more gas and oil both in North America and
overseas - a fact that was not lost on MNR officials in
recent conversations with emboff. Vanco and Anadarko will
not be the only bidders on these lots. Woodside (Australia),
Tullo (Ireland), ENI (Italy), Stirling Energy (UK), Petrobras
(Brazil), Statoil (Norway), and Shell/South Africa are also
considered likely bidders, among others. Some of these
companies may pull out, however. In November 2004 Tanzania
held a bidding round for exploration in geologically similar
deepwater terrain and received many inquiries of interest,
although only three bids.

5. (SBU) The bidding process announced by GRM will be the
first of its kind in the oil sector; in the past, the GRM has
always negotiated oil exploration rights directly with a
pre-selected company rather than via an open bidding process.
For example, in 2004 the GRM decided to negotiate a contract
to explore lots #2 and #5 in the Rovuma Basin region directly
with Statoil of Norway; contract negotiations are still in
process. Since bidding for oil exploration contracts is a
new process in Mozambique and the terms are yet to be
announced, it is difficult to determine what the GRM,s
ultimate criteria will be. In conversations with the
Embassy, Vanco representatives said that they believed that
the most important factors would be the perceived strength of
the bidder,s understanding of the region,s geology, the
speed at which seismic studies would be carried out, and
financial capability. Recent emboff conversations with MNR
officials also suggest that the Mozambicans are interested in
each bidder,s history of undertaking actual production
activities; they are suspicious of companies that may see the
lots primarily for their speculative value. The key figure
in the GRM during this process will be Arsenio Mabote,
Chairman of the National Institute for Petroleum (part of the
MNR). In recent years Mabote negotiated the terms of the
GRM,s natural gas exploration and production agreement with
Sasol of South Africa, and also, as then National Director of
Coal and Hydrocarbons, handled the 2004 open bid process for
the Moatize coal mine.

6. (SBU) The big question underlying the entire bid process
is a simple one: does the Rovuma Basin have commercially
viable oil reserves? Many companies believe that it does,
based on basic geologic information available from the GRM
and data available from Lonropet, a British firm that carried
out exploration in parts of the Rovuma Basin in the late
1990s but never did any drilling. (Note: No wells have ever
been drilled offshore in the Mozambican part of the Rovuma
basin. End Note.) The overlapping layers of Jurassic rocks
in the basin are considered very similar to the geology of
river basins in other parts of Africa (Nigeria, Ghana,
Gabon), where commercially viable deposits have been found.
Also, many minor oil and gas seeps have been identified in
the Mozambican and Tanzanian parts of the Rovuma Basin.
Despite these encouraging signs, however, many industry
observers at the conference remarked that reserves of gas but
very little oil have been discovered by recent exploration in
southeast Africa. Some pointed to the apparent difficulties
experienced by the Malaysian company Petronas, which was
granted exploration rights in 2002 to a broad offshore swath
of the Zambezi Basin of Central Mozambique. Petronas so far
has carried out extensive seismic studies, valued at up to
$30 million over the past three years, but has not found
indications of enough oil or natural gas to attract
investment for further drilling. The company is in danger of
defaulting on its agreement with the GRM, which required
drilling to commence within three years. GRM officials and
Vanco representatives state, however, that the geology of the
Zambezi Basin is different and less compelling than that of
the Rovuma Basin.

Natural Gas
-----------
7. (U) Natural gas is by far the most advanced of all
Mozambique's natural resource sectors. Sasol Petroleum
International is now the biggest natural resources producer
in Mozambique. In March 2004 Sasol made its first sales of
natural gas from the Pande and Temane oil fields in southern
Mozambique, of which it holds a 70 percent share. This
followed the November 2003 completion of a central processing
facility in Inhambane province and a gas pipeline to South
Africa finished three months later. (Note: The GRM is in the
midst of negotiations to secure a 30 percent ownership in the
Sasol central processing facility. It also holds the rights
to purchase a 25 percent ownership in the Sasol pipeline at
specific outtake points, and plans to take steps toward
purchase when appropriate investors are identified. End
note.) Sasol Petroleum International announced at the Maputo
conference last week that it is now producing approximately
90 MGJ/year from the Pande and Temane fields, and expects to
be at 120 MGJ/year in 2008. Pande and Temane are world-class
gas fields with 4.81 GHP combined in proven reserves.
Mozambique has two other smaller proven natural gas fields at
Inhassoro and Buzi; neither is in production. The GRM has
also granted a concession for gas exploration in the
Inhaminga block of Central Mozambique to the Norwegian firm
DNO, with the U.S. firm Wilrusco owning a 20% share. DNO is
carrying out nearly all the operational work in the area,
though no drilling has yet been done.

Coal
----
8. (U) Mozambique is scheduled to return to the ranks of
significant coal producers by 2007. In November 2004 the
Brazilian giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) won in a
competitive bidding process the rights to begin production at
the long-stagnant Moatize coal mine in Tete province. (Note:
CVRD owns 95% of the Moatize concession, with the
Connecticut-based American Metals and Coal International
owning the other 5%. End Note.) CVRD is currently
undertaking its feasibility study, to be released to the GRM
early next year, in which it will determine not only where to
mine, but also whether to build a 1500 megawatt coal-fired
power station. CVRD plans to export the majority of coal
mined at Moatize, but at least 30% of the coal will be
retained within Mozambique. The American firm Fluor hopes to
partner with CVRD.

Power Needs
-----------
9. (SBU) Visiting U.S. Department of Energy officer Carolyn
Gay and emboff spoke at length with GRM's Minister of Energy
Salvador Namburete May 31 about opportunities and challenges
in Mozambique's power sector. According to Namburete, the
GRM foresees a power shortage in Mozambique and in Southern
Africa in general. It believes it will be necessary to boost
power production quickly for greater industrial output, to
facilitate further mining and exploration, and to increase
rural electrification. For example, the GRM would like to
expand the massive Mozal aluminum smelter near Maputo, but an
extra 550 megawatts would be needed to do so. Mozambique
does not have the energy internally for this and fears the
costs of importing energy. Also, it will take at least an
additional 150 megawatts to commence production of the
Corridor Sands project, scheduled to start in two years (see
para 14 below). Namburete added that during the negotiation
with CVRD for the Moatize coal concession, the government was
less concerned with obtaining of a high percentage of
royalties than it was with securing additional power sources.
?
10. (U) The construction of a coal-fired plant in Tete is one
way to solve these and many other energy needs. But,
according to Namburete, the GRM is particularly focused on
increasing its hydroelectric power reserves. Mozambique is
seeking investors to build a second massive dam inside
Mozambique on the Zambezi river, approximately 100 kilometers
downstream from Cahora Bassa dam; Minister Namburete
suggested one with a hydroelectric generation capacity of
1300 megawatts. Also, the GRM wants to add a second power
station at Cahora Bassa, on the north side of the dam. The
Ministry of Energy has identified several other rivers for
smaller dams producing less than 150 megawatts.

Cahora Bassa Dam
----------------
11. (U) To construct a second power station on the north side
of Cahora Bassa, Mozambique would need to reach a settlement
with Portugal. This is because the Cahora Bassa
Hydroelectric Company, which manages dam operations, is 82%
Portuguese-owned and 18% Mozambican-owned. Renegotiation of
the entire Cahora Bassa complex (including the use of the
waters of the reservoir behind the dam) is at the top of the
Ministry of Energy's goals for the next few years - and
renegotiation may not be an impossible goal. Energy produced
at the dam is sold primarily to ESKOM in South Africa, and
then sold back to Mozambique at a higher price. In early
2004 the price of electricity sold to ESKOM was revised
upward, although it still was only a fraction of the
international and regional price. Mozambique and Portugal
will be meeting on June 14 in Lisbon to discuss a possible
resolution to the Cahora Bassa Dam issue. The biggest
obstacle to reaching agreement, now as always, is servicing
the Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric Company's huge debt to the
Portuguese treasury.

Heavy Sands
-----------
12. (SBU) Mining of several "heavy sands" deposits is
scheduled to come on-line in the next couple years. Two
projects stand out: Moma Sands, located in the northern
province of Nampula and Corridor Sands, in the southern
province of Gaza. In August 2004 Kenmare Resources of
Ireland contracted an Australian firm to commence
construction of a processing facility for the Moma Sands
project. Construction is now about half finished, according
to company sources, and Kenmare hopes to begin production in
early 2006. The American firm Fluor made a large but
unsuccessful bid for constructing the Moma facility. Kenmare
expects to produce 615,000 tons of ilmenite minerals per
year, including 40,000 tons of premium ilmenite, 20,000 tons
of premium zircon, and 15,000 tons of rutile. Kenmare
projects huge profits in Mozambique following completion of
its factory, since it foresees total production costs at
approximately $23 million per year and annual revenues in the
$85-$90 million range.

13. (SBU) The Corridor Sands heavy sands project in Gaza
province is less advanced. The Australian firm WMC Resources,
Ltd. purchased full rights to the project area in January
2005. They had planned to designate a project management
contractor by the end of 2005 and to begin construction of
processing facilities in 2006. (Fluor is bidding on this
contract, too.) WMC targeted production levels of
approximately 400,000 tons per year by 2008, also focusing
primarily on ilmenite, zircon, and rutile. The project had
been delayed due to concerns over lack of available power.
On June 3 the mining giant BHP Billiton purchased 55% of WMC
Resources, effectively taking over the company. It is
unclear what this move will mean for the Corridor Sands
project.
La Lime

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