Cablegate: Soft Business Performance Spills to Q2 of 2005
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
290854Z Jun 05
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002835
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE PLEASE PASS AIT/W AND USTR
STATE FOR EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/EP AND EB/IFD/OIA
USTR FOR Audrey Winter and Tim Wineland
USDOC FOR 4420/USFCS/OCEA/EAP/LDROKER
USDOC FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/ADAVENPORT
TREASURY FOR OASIA/ZELIKOW AND WISNER
TREASURY PLEASE PASS TO OCC/AMCMAHON
TREASURY ALSO PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE/BOARD OF
GOVERNORS, AND SAN FRANCISCO FRB/TERESA CURRAN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EINV EFIN ECON PINR TW
SUBJECT: Soft Business Performance Spills to Q2 of 2005
Summary
-------
1. Taiwan's soft economic performance from the first
quarter of 2005 spilled over into the second quarter. Weak
world demand for Taiwan products has driven y-o-y export
growth in May 2005 to a new low and manufacturing posted its
most significant contraction since SARS attacked Taiwan in
early 2003. Higher petroleum prices and heavy rains
together pushed up the inflation rate in May to a new 7-
month high. Nevertheless, inflationary pressure is not a
concern in light of low money supply growth and declines in
price levels for services industries. The unemployment rate
in May rose slightly from April, due mainly to new
graduates' joining the labor market. Local economists
differ in their outlook of economic trends for Taiwan in the
next six months. Some suggest the government should
stimulate domestic growth rather than relying on export
growth. End Summary
Export Expansion Slows, Manufacturing Sector Shrinks
--------------------------------------------- -------
2. Taiwan's export sector, contributing two-thirds of the
island economy's GDP in 2004, continued to experience a
slowdown in export expansion in Q2. Taiwan's export growth
began to decline in the second half of 2004 when world
demand for Taiwan products (mainly electronic goods) began
to weaken. Y-o-y growth in exports dropped steadily from
28.8% in Q2 of 2004 to 7.8% in Q1 and 7.5% in April and May
of 2005. Growth in export orders received by Taiwan also
declined from 29.1% in Q2 of 2004 to 14.3% in April and May
this year.
3. However, Taiwan's manufacturing firms did not benefit
from the 14.3% growth in export orders. Relatively high
inventories built up in the second half of 2004 and higher
rates of offshore production resulted in a 0.8% decline in
manufacturing in May. This is the largest contraction of
manufacturing in the past two years. Taiwan's manufacturing
production in May 2004 declined 1.7% as a result of SARS on
the island.
Offshore Production of Export Orders
------------------------------------
4. Many Taiwan business firms have set up production bases
overseas, mainly in China. These offshore bases produced
37.7% of export orders in May 2005, slightly down from 39.7%
in February but still much higher than 30.7% a year ago.
For the information & communications industry, the ratio
reached 73%. According to the latest survey of the
Industrial Technology Intelligence Services, Taiwan's
notebook computer firms, occupying 72% of the global market,
are receiving export orders in Taiwan, but only producing
11% of the orders on the island. The remaining 89% is
manufactured overseas.
Capital Outflow Cuts Money Supply Growth
----------------------------------------
5. Offshore production of export orders is a result of a
chronic net outflow of direct investment (DI) funds, which
continued to prevail in 2005. Outbound DI approved by the
Ministry of Economic Affairs in the first five months of
this year totaled US$1,080 million, more than double the
US$498 million in approved inbound DI. The net outflow of
DI totally offset the modest, by Taiwan standards, trade
surplus of US$549 million. The trade surplus in the first
five months of 2005 was 87% less than during the comparable
period a year ago because import growth of 13.5% greatly
exceeded the 7.6% rate of export growth.
6. Capital outflow from the direct investment account in
the first five months of 2005 dampened money supply growth
and, therefore, helped decrease inflationary pressure. In
May 2005, M1b grew at a 5.6% rate, the second lowest in the
past 16 months. M2 grew at a 5.9% rate, the lowest in the
past two years. M1b is composed of currency held by the
public plus deposit money. M2 includes M1b, time deposits,
time savings deposits, and foreign currency deposits.
Inflationary Pressure Light
---------------------------
7. In May 2005, the consumer price index rose 2.3% from a
year ago, the highest in the past seven months. Higher
inflation resulted partly from higher oil prices and partly
from heavy rains destroying some vegetable and fruit crops.
Oil prices rose above US$50 per barrel in May and US$60 in
June, prompting petroleum-related prices to rise 7.35% for
gasoline and 10.5% for petroleum and natural gases,
according to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting
and Statistics.
8. In May and June 2005, heavy rains damaged agricultural
production in southern and central Taiwan. Agricultural
losses caused by floods exceeded NT$2 billion during these
two months. Consequently, produce prices surged 36% for
fruits and 21% for vegetables in May.
9. On the other hand, declines of 0.5-1.5% in price levels
in the services sector (including housing rentals,
entertainment, and beauty services) in May 2005 offset a
portion of the increased energy and produce prices. Housing
rentals, entertainment, and beauty services constitute 44%
of CPI, far more than 8% weighting for energy, fruits and
vegetables.
Unemployment Rate Rises Seasonally
----------------------------------
10. Taiwan's unemployment rate in May 2005 rose to 4.1%
from 4.04% in April. It was 4.41% a year ago. The moderate
rise in unemployment resulted mainly from the seasonal event
of new graduates joining the labor market. Employment has
improved, with the number of people employed in May 2005
rising by 0.2% from April and by 1.6% from a year ago.
Economic Prospects
------------------
11. Local observers differ in their expectations for
Taiwan's economy in the second half of 2005. Senior
Economist Wu Chung-shu of Academia Sinica is optimistic. He
predicts better economic performance in the next six months.
Wu says that China, acting as the "factory" for Taiwan
firms, continued to enjoy handsome export growth of 34% in
the first four months of 2005. In addition, economies of
Taiwan's major export markets will continue to grow at a
moderate rate. Wu predicted that Taiwan's export growth
would return to double-digits in the second half of this
year, and that its growth rate could reach 20% in the last
quarter. Wu noted that to meet higher export demand,
private investment would post double-digit growth that could
exceed 20% in Q3 of 2005. A sign for the expected expansion
of private investment was a 30% growth in imports of capital
goods (excluding aircraft) in May 2005. The growth in
machinery imports in the month even reached 54.4%. However,
Wu indicated that the trend might turn sour if oil prices
should continue to rise and China's Renminbi should
significantly appreciate (against the US dollar).
12. Tsai Hung-kun, Deputy Director of the DGBAS'
Statistical Bureau, on the other hand is relatively
pessimistic. He believes that a slowdown in global economic
growth in 2005 will cap Taiwan's export growth at 8% for the
rest of this year. Tsai predicted that private investment
growth would slow from 15% in Q1 to merely 2.5% in Q4 of
2005.
13. In a recent speech to the Council for Economic Planning
and Development (CEPD), Schive Chi, President of the Taiwan
Academy of Banking and Finance and former Vice Chairman of
CEPD, suggested that the government should stimulate
Taiwan's domestic demand rather than rely on export growth.
He indicated that Taiwan's services sector, particularly
financial services firms, had great potential for further
development. He said that the financial service sector has
been catching up to the manufacturing sector in production,
with a ratio between these two sectors narrowing from 32:100
in 1984 to 84:100 in 2004. According to Schive, taking bank
offices as an example, the number of bank offices for every
100,000 persons in Taiwan is 27, less than over 40 in
Germany, France and Italy. The number of bank employees
serving every 100,000 persons in Taiwan is 551, also less
than 600 - 800 in the United States and Europe.
PAAL