Cablegate: Another Poll Shows Majority of Costa Ricans Support

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 002037

SIPDIS

WHA/CEN
EB FOR WCRAFT, BMANOGUE
E FOR DEDWARDS
WHA FOR WMIELE
WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER
INR/R/AA FOR SBIRD
H FOR JHAGAN
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR RVARGO, AMALITO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD ECPS ECON PREL PGOV SOCI CS
SUBJECT: ANOTHER POLL SHOWS MAJORITY OF COSTA RICANS SUPPORT
CAFTA-DR

REF: (A) SAN JOSE 01787

(B) SAN JOSE 01875

1. According to a poll conducted in August 2005 by UNIMER
for the daily "La Nacion," 54 percent of the 1,413 persons
polled supported the U.S.-Central American-Dominican
Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), up from 43
percent in a similar poll conducted for "La Nacion" in
November 2004. Twenty-six percent of those polled believe
that the agreement should be rejected, down from 38 percent
in November. Seventy-six percent of those polled said that
they were aware that the U.S. Congress already had ratified
CAFTA-DR.

2. The poll also revealed that men support CAFTA-DR more
than women (61.2, and 45.2 percent in favor, 21.1, and 31.1
opposed, respectively), and a larger percentage of men
claimed to have knowledge of the CAFTA-DR ratification
process (80 percent for men versus 71.8 percent for women).
Those not expressing support for or opposition to CAFTA-DR
either had no opinion or did not believe that CAFTA-DR
would have much of an effect. Those respondents who live
in the rural zones of the greater metropolitan San Jose
area had the highest support for CAFTA-DR (66.3 percent in
favor, and 21.0 percent against). There are many
agriculture-related industries in these areas, such as
ornamental plant, coffee, and flower growers, that rely
heavily on exports to the U.S.

3. In the urban greater metropolitan San Jose area, which
is the most populated area and was the most represented in
the poll with 508 total respondents, 57.1 percent expressed
support for CAFTA-DR, and 27.7 percent expressed
opposition. The geographical area that showed the highest
opposition to CAFTA-DR at approximately 30 percent was the
Central Valley area outside of the greater metro San Jose
area. Forty-one percent of respondents who live in this
area expressed support for CAFTA-DR. The other 30 percent
either had no opinion or did not think CAFTA-DR would make
much of a difference.

4. Support for the agreement also varied with the
education level of the respondent. The higher level of
education achieved, the stronger the support for CAFTA-DR.
University-educated respondents showed a 58.9 percent level
of support (27.1 percent opposed); high school graduates
52.6 percent (26.6 percent opposed); primary school
graduates 51 percent (24.6 percent opposed); and lower
education levels 38.2 percent (21.5 percent opposed).

5. Also, the poll revealed that respondents from higher
socio-economic levels were more likely to support the
agreement than were respondents from lower socio-economic
levels. The poll identified that 66.4 percent of those
respondents from a high socio-economic level favored CAFTA-
DR (16.4 percent opposed); 52.9 percent from the medium
socio-economic level (28.8 percent opposed); and 50.9
percent from the low socio-economic level (22.5 percent
opposed).

6. With regard to age groups, the under 18-year-old group
showed the weakest support (47 percent in favor and 31.3
percent opposed), while support was strongest among those
between 18 and 29 years of age (59.5 percent in favor, 26.3
percent opposed), followed by the 30-to-39 year-olds (55.9
percent in favor, 22 percent opposed), 50-to 69-year-olds
(47.0 percent in favor, 26.4 percent opposed), and the 40-
to-49 (47 percent in favor, 29.4, percent opposed).

7. "La Nacion's" report on the UNIMER poll also revealed
that one third of those polled said that a presidential
candidate's stance on CAFTA-DR would affect how they vote in
the next election in February 2006. Of this third, 62
percent said that they would be more likely to support a
candidate who is in favor of CAFTA-DR while 34 percent said
they would be more likely to support a candidate opposed to
CAFTA-DR.

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COMMENT
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8. The results from this poll are consistent with other
polls conducted recently (Refs A and B). A majority of
Costa Ricans polled expressed support for CAFTA-DR, which
has grown over the last nine months as the citizenry has
become more informed. This most recent poll also revealed
that the highest level of support was from 18-29-year-old
Costa Ricans and those who live in heavily agricultural
areas that rely on trade with the U.S. This is notable
because some CAFTA-DR opponents have said that farmers
oppose the agreement because it will hurt them and that
young Costa Ricans, especially University students, are
opposed to the agreement. The results from this most recent
poll do not support these contentions.
FRISBIE

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