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Cablegate: Media Reaction Report - Global Economy - Oil Prices

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005835

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - GLOBAL ECONOMY - OIL PRICES
EU ISSUES: TURKEY
PARIS - TUESDAY, AUGUST 30, 2005


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

GLOBAL ECONOMY - OIL PRICES
EU ISSUES: TURKEY

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

HURRICANE KATRINA'S TRACK AND DAMAGE TO THE LOUISIANA
COASTLINE IS ONE OF TODAY'S LEAD STORIES, WITH KEYING RELATED
STORIES ON OIL PRICES. THESE WERE PROMINENTLY DEVELOPED BY
ECONOMIC LA TRIBUNE WHICH HEADLINES: "BOOMING OIL PRICES FORCE
EUROPE TO REACT." IN ITS EDITORIAL TITLED "KATRINA AND ITS
COLLATERAL DAMAGE" FRANCOIS-XAVIER PETRI SEES EUROPE AS CAUGHT
IN THE MIDDLE OF "A HIGH RISK GAME" BETWEEN OIL PRODUCING
COUNTRIES "UNABLE TO SATISFY DEMAND" AND RICH COUNTRIES LIKE
CHINA AND THE U.S. WHOSE "STRONG ECONOMIES CAN SUPPORT RISING
OIL PRICES." IN LE FIGARO NICOLAS BARRE COMPARES ENERGY
STRATEGIES OF THE U.S. AND CHINA: "BOTH HAVE INCLUDED ENERGY
IN THEIR OVERALL STRATEGIES." BUT EUROPE DOES NOT AND BARRE
HOPES THIS "THIRD ENERGY CRISIS WILL SERVE AS A WAKE UP CALL
TO EUROPE." IN LIBERATION EDITORIALIST GERARD DUPUY SIMILARLY
HOPES THAT "THIS CRISIS WILL SERVE AS A KICK IN THE PANTS TO
CONSUMERS WHO HAVE BECOME OVERLY DEPENDENT ON OIL." (SEE PART
C)

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THE SECOND MAJOR FRONT PAGE STORY REVOLVES AROUND THE
GOVERNMENT'S PUBLICATION OF A "BLACK LIST" OF BANNED AIRLINES,
WHICH IS OVERWHELMINGLY BEING CRITICIZED BY MOST EXPERTS FOR
BEING TOO CONSERVATIVE. CALLS FOR A EUROPEAN "BLACK LIST" ARE
REITERATED AND THE U.S. SYSTEM OF AVIATION CONTROL IS GIVEN AS
AN EXAMPLE. LE FIGARO PUBLISHES ITS OWN "BLACK LIST" OF
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES TO BE AVOIDED.

PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S REMARKS YESTERDAY TO THE ASSEMBLED CORPS OF
150 AMBASSADORS ARE REPORTED. LE FIGARO ANALYZES CHIRAC'S
POSITION ON TURKEY'S MEMBERSHIP AND HIS PREVIOUS STANCE ON
TURKEY AND CYPRUS. (SEE PART C) A SEPARATE ARTICLE INDICATES
THAT FRANCE'S AMBASSADOR TO BAGHDAD SUGGESTED AFTER THE
CONFERENCE THAT HE "MAY NOT BE RETURNING TO IRAQ" FOR SECURITY
REASONS. GEORGES MALBRUNOT WRITES: "FRENCH AUTHORITIES ARE
CONCERNED FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR AMBASSADOR TO BAGHDAD. HE
MAY BE THE TARGET OF ATTACKS BY THE GUERRILLAS. THIS
INFORMATION WAS RELAYED BY A WESTERN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE TO
THE FRENCH."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

GLOBAL ECONOMY - OIL PRICES

"KATRINA AND ITS COLLATERAL DAMAGES"
FRANCOIS-XAVIER PETRI IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LA TRIBUNE (08/30):
"TODAY'S OIL CRISIS IS A CRISIS TRIGGERED BY DEMAND. STRONG
GROWTH ECONOMIES ARE PUMPING DRY THE RESERVES OF OIL PRODUCING
COUNTRIES, WHICH CANNOT MEET THE DEMAND. THE FACT IS THAT IN
CHINA AND IN THE U.S., GROWTH IS SUCH THAT THEIR ECONOMIES CAN
ABSORB THE HIGH COST OF OIL. EUROPE CANNOT. EUROPE IS IN FACT
PREPARING TO SUFFER THE COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF THE HIGH-RISK
GAME OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND WHICH OPPOSES OIL PRODUCING
COUNTRIES THAT CAN HARDLY MEET THE DEMANDS OF THOSE WHO
CONSUME MORE AND MORE EVERYDAY."

"OIL AND POWER"
NICOLAS BARRE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/30): "THIS
THIRD OIL CRISIS IS NOT AS SERIOUS AS PREVIOUS ONES. NOT ONLY
HAVE WE LEARNED TO PRODUCE MORE OIL WITH THE RESOURCES WE
HAVE, TECHNOLOGY FOR NEW ENERGIES IS PROGRESSING FASTER THAN
PREDICTED. WHILE THESE FACTORS ARE REASSURING, THEY DO NOT
TAKE AWAY FROM THE FUNDAMENTAL POWER PLAY BASED ON OIL. WE IN
FACT ARE FACED WITH A CONVERGENCE OF ANALYSES BY THE U.S. AND
CHINA, WITH BOTH COUNTRIES HAVING INCLUDED ENERGY SAFETY AS A
MAJOR COMPONENT OF THEIR POWER STRATEGIES. WHILE IN THE U.S.
THE MATTER IS IN THE HANDS OF VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY, IN CHINA
THE RACE FOR ENERGY IS THE ECONOMIC COUNTERWEIGHT TO THE ARMS
RACE, WITH CHINA READY TO MAKE MASSIVE INVESTMENTS. IN EUROPE
ON THE OTHER HAND WE DO NOT SEE THE CHALLENGE WITH THE SAME
FEELING OF URGENCY. IF THIS `THIRD OIL CRISIS' COULD WAKE UP
EUROPE, WE COULD SAY THAT IT WOULD HAVE SERVED ITS PURPOSE."
"THE SPANKING"
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (08/30): "THIS
SPRING'S OPTIMISM ABOUT A RETURN TO TAMER OIL PRICES IS GONE
AND EVERYONE AGREES THAT HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HERE TO STAY. IN
THE COMING YEARS, DEMAND MAY WELL BE GREATER THAN SUPPLY, AND
PRICES COULD CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET. THE RENDEZVOUS WITH ENERGY
SAVING MEASURES HAS LARGELY BEEN A STORY OF MISSED
OPPORTUNITIES. THIS VIRTUE WILL BE ACHIEVED ONLY THROUGH A
SERIES OF KICKS TO OUR COMFORTABLE POSTERIORS OF OIL-DEPENDENT
CONSUMERS. 2005 MAY GO DOWN AS YEAR ONE OF THE `SPANKING.'"

EU ISSUES: TURKEY

"CHIRAC AWAITING A GESTURE FROM TURKEY ON CYPRUS"
ALAIN BARLUET IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/30): "WITH A
MONTH TO GO BEFORE THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE EU AND TURKEY,
CHIRAC GAVE A WARNING TO ANKARA ASKING IT TO `CLARIFY' ITS
POSITION ON CYPRUS. ANKARA'S PREVIOUS UNILATERAL POSITION DID
NOT SIT WELL WITH PARIS. AND PARIS EXPECTS A POLITICAL
COMMITMENT FROM THE TURKS DEVOID OF ANY AMBIGUITY. THE
OBJECTIVE REGARDING TURKEY IS ITS ULTIMATE EU MEMBERSHIP, EVEN
IF THE TIME FRAME IS FAR IN THE FUTURE. CHIRAC DESCRIBED THE
PROCESS AS A `LONG AND ARDUOUS ROAD WITH AN UNCERTAIN
OUTCOME.' BUT NO ONE IN PARIS IS READY TO SAY WHAT DIRECTION
THAT `LONG AND ARDUOUS ROAD' WILL BE TAKING: A PRIVILEGED
RELATIONSHIP SEPARATE FROM A FORMAL EU MEMBERSHIP IS NOT
EXCLUDED." STAPLETON

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