Cablegate: Media Reaction: China-Russia Military Exercise

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

230552Z Aug 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003509

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA-RUSSIA MILITARY EXERCISE

1. Summary: The major Chinese-language Taipei dailies
focused their coverage August 20-22 mainly on the KMT's
17th Party Congress, in which Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou
took over the helm of the party, and the possible
future outbreak of an avian flu in Taiwan. In general,
the newspapers in Taipei did not provide readers with
extensive or original coverage of the on-going China-
Russia joint military exercises. The pro-independence
"Taiwan Daily," however, did run a banner headline on
its front page August 20 that read: "A former U.S.
official urges Asia to join hands in deterring
Beijing." The sub-headline added: "[Peter] Brookes
said the series of military drills by China, Russia,
the United States, Japan and Taiwan will jeopardize
regional security. [He warns Asian countries] not to
let Taiwan become the fuse of a third world war." The
newspaper also devoted almost a half of its front page
that day to wire service stories on the China-Russia
military drills. The pro-unification "United Daily
News" August 22 devoted its page 14 to wire service
stories on the military drill. One of the news stories
on the page was topped with the headline: "Taiwan
official: Beijing has reached its aim of joining hands
with Russia in restraining the United States." The sub-
headline said: "Chinese military uses [the military
drills] to open door to and absorb experience of other
country's military. [The drills] have attracted global
attention and their long-term effect cannot be
overlooked."

2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, most
newspapers focused on the challenges new KMT Chairman
Ma Ying-jeou faces and the future development of the
KMT. "United Daily News" ran an editorial on the China-
Russia joint military exercises that focused on
historical cycles and the military drills; the
editorial stated that Beijing has paid a high price in
joining hands with Russia in an attempt to restrain the
United States and Japan and thereby daunt Taiwan
independence. Taiwan Think Tank's Director for Foreign
Policy Studies Lai I-chung, however, noted in an op-ed
piece in the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" that the
joint military exercises made China and Russia appear
to be united, but the countries are actually divided at
heart. Hung Mao-hsiung, a standing committee member of
the Taiwan International Studies Association, said in
an op-ed piece in the limited-circulation, pro-
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" that the
political significance of the joint military drills
between China and Russia outweighs its military value.
End summary.

A) "The Bizarreness of Historical Cycles as Viewed from
the China-Russia Joint Military Exercises"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation:
400,000] editorialized (8/20):

". The joint Sino-Russian military exercises are also
based on the thinking [as employed in China's modern
history] of `playing off one foreign power against
another,' and the price that China has paid to Russia
is no less than what it did during the Ching Dynasty.
Based on Beijing's agreements . with Russia, the land
that China has agreed to let go and give to Russia is
about 30 times as large as the land of Taiwan. If
China just wants to join hands with Russia to restrain
the United States and Japan in order to daunt Taiwan
independence, it has indeed paid a great price. .

"Taiwan is in reality playing the same trick. In order
to join hands with the United States to resist Beijing,
Taiwan, in the face of increasing financial deficits
and unprecedented low trade surplus, still plans to
raise its national defense budget to three percent of
the government's GDP. In order not to offend Japan,
[the Taiwan government] also `put aside for the time
being' its most discussed and adored `sovereignty'
issue. For Taiwan, an island that can hardly walk out
[from beneath] the giant shadow of `China,' such a
price is unbearably heavy. ."

B) "Joint Sino-Russia Military Exercises Appear United
Outwardly But Divided at Heart"

Lai I-chung, Taiwan Think Tank's Director for Foreign
Policy Studies, noted in the pro-independence "Taiwan
Daily" [circulation: 100,000] (8/21):

". If one wants to analyze why China and Russia want to
jointly start such military drills, a relatively more
reasonable answer will be that China wants to use this
military exercise to make a show of its force to the
`U.S.-Japan security alliance.' Russia, on the other
hand, is attempting to use this drill to release the
strategic pressure it encounters in East Europe and
Central Asia. .

"The `Shanghai Cooperation Organization' (SCO) is the
first that will be impacted by the China-Russia
military exercise because both nations are the two main
leaders of this organization. After the two nations
have started to conduct joint military exercises, the
size of the drills may expand to include other member
countries of the organization, and it will put pressure
on other pro-U.S. member countries (such as
Tadzhikistan and Kyrgyzatan) and observer (such as
India), forcing them to keep a distance with the United
States. Once SCO has successfully driven out the U.S.
force, Russia may likely expand the organization to
include the Caucasus in an attempt to restrain Georgia,
Chechnya, and Armenia from getting rid of Russia's
influence. . As a result, the future development of
SCO following the joint Sino-Russia military drill is
thus worth observation.

"The situation on the Korean peninsula will be the next
[that is worth observation]. Since both China and
Russia are participants of the Six Party Talks as well
as standing members of the UN Security Council, the
joint Sino-Russia military drill will not only attempt
to place pressure on the `U.S.-Japan alliance' but will
also seek to form a new alliance among the participants
of the Six Party Talks. China has already [succeeded
in] maintaining a close relationship with South Korea.
If it could create a new cooperative relationship with
Russia following the joint military exercise and apply
it on the Korean peninsula, it will be able to form a
confrontational situation between the `China-Russia-
Seoul-Pyongyang' [force] and the `U.S.-Japan alliance'
once the fourth round of Six Party Talks is resumed. ."

C) "How Will Joint War Games Affect Security?"

Hung Mao-hsiung, a standing committee member of the
Taiwan International Studies Association, commented in
the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] (8/20):

". Above all else, this [i.e. the China-Russia military
exercise] is a breakthrough in the policies of both
nations, who are cooperating for the first time with
the military forces of a non-allied nation. The
significance of this action is threefold.

"First, both China and Russia are gradually shedding
their mutual suspicions. Extensive negotiations have
finally resolved disputes over the thousands of
kilometers of land border between the two nations, and
they are now moving toward building mutual trust and
becoming continental allies.

"Second, from the selection of the location for the
exercise and the insistence by both sides that it is
not directed at any third nation, it is clear that the
political significance of the exercises outweighs the
military values. Third, the atmosphere of a new Cold
War in the Asia-Pacific has been heightened. Following
the regular US-Japanese and US-South Korean military
drills, China has held several joint anti-terrorism and
sea rescue exercises with the UK, Indonesia and France.
It is now embarking on large-scale military exercises
with Russia. This new Cold War is sometimes obvious
and sometimes hidden. .

"What impact will the exercises have on Asia-Pacific
security? China's `hegemonic' rising has become a key
threat to security in the Asia-Pacific region. The
decision on the location of the exercises came after a
disagreement with Russia over Beijing's initial desire
for the exercises to take place further south, opposite
Taiwan - over which it hopes to gain control, by force
if necessary.

"At least Russia recognizes the sensitivity of the
situation, and was unwilling to act provocatively in
the face of the designation of the Taiwan Strait as a
`common strategic objective' by the US-Japan Security
Consultative Committee. Nor does it wish to cause
undue anxiety for Taiwan."

PAAL

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