Cablegate: Media Reaction: China-Russia Military

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

290833Z Aug 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003596

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA-RUSSIA MILITARY
EXERCISE, U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

1. Summary: Amid extensive coverage August 27-29 on
local politics and the aftermath of a riot by Thai
laborers in Kaohsiung, major Chinese-language Taipei
dailies also provided moderate amounts of reporting on
U.S.-Taiwan relations and the China-Russia joint
military drills. The pro-independence "Liberty Times,"
Taiwan's biggest daily, carried a news story on its
page six August 27 that was topped with the headline:
"Taiwan-U.S. military talks [i.e. the Monterey Talks]
will be held in the wake of the Bush-Hu meeting." Both
the "Liberty Times" and centrist "China Times" August
28 quoted TECRO Chief David Lee as saying the U.S.
government would announce the appointment of a new AIT
chairman right before President Chen Shui-bian transits
San Francisco and Miami this September so that the new
chairman could accompany Chen during his transits.
Both newspapers also said former AIT Director Raymond
Burghardt will be taking up the position. The "Liberty
Times," in addition, quoted Lee as saying that U.S.-
Taiwan relations have stabilized since he took office.

With regard to the China-Russia joint military
exercises, the pro-unification "United Daily News" ran
a news story on its page four August 29 with the
headline: "Taiwan secretly dispatches military aircraft
to monitor China-Russia military drills." The sub-
headline added: "A C-130 military cargo plane departed
from [Taichung's] Chingchuankang military base for
Okinawa last week, landed in the U.S. military base and
intercepted electronic intelligence. [Taiwan's] Air
Force Headquarters declined to confirm [the report]."

2. In terms of editorials and commentary, a "China
Times" editorial commented on the China-Russia military
exercises and said the drills have indeed marked a new
milestone in terms of confidence building between the
two nations. Chinese Council for Advanced Policy
Studies Secretary-General Andrew Yang noted in an op-ed
piece in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" that the
joint Sino-Russia military exercises are a concrete
move for China and Russia to demonstrative their
determination to protect their own interests. An
editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-
unification, English-language "China Post," however,
said China's saber-rattling proves that it is a threat
and shows that it is eager to project its power beyond
its borders. An editorial in the limited-circulation,
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
strongly criticized Washington's decision to cancel the
"Monterey Talks" with Taiwan; the newspaper later
carried the news that the talks had merely been
postponed. Finally, an editorial in the limited-
circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan
News," urged the DPP government to carefully reevaluate
the triangular relationship between Taipei, Washington
and Beijing. End summary.

1. China-Russia Military Exercise

A) "How Should Taiwan View the Joint Sino-Russia
Military Exercise"

The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times"
[circulation: 400,000] editorialized (8/29):

"Judged from the [current] situation, the joint Sino-
Russia military exercises have indeed marked a new
milestone in terms of the confidence building between
the two nations. The mutual trust between China and
Russia is closely related to the rapidly changing
geopolitical strategy of the two countries, and the
weirder and more changing their neighboring environment
becomes, the more easily it will push the two sides
under pressure to move toward closer cooperation. It
is thus, without doubt, the biggest error in the
strategic plan of the United States and Japan if China
and Russia were pushed to an extreme. .

"Given the current development, it is difficult to tell
or estimate to which extent the strategic partnership
between China and Russia will develop. But if [we]
reflect on the security alliance mechanism that the
United States has been working eagerly to establish,
[we will see that] it takes four or five decades for
such a mechanism to develop into the state it is in
now. As for the relations between China and Russia,
the two nations did not divest their past grudges until
a decade ago. What grounds [do we have] to believe
that China and Russia will establish an equal mechanism
in such a short period of time to counterbalance the
U.S.-Japan security alliance? ."

B) "The Intent and Capabilities of China-Russia Joint
Military Exercises"

Chinese Council for Advanced Policy Studies Secretary-
General Andrew Yang noted in the mass-circulation
"Apple Daily" [circulation 570,000] (8/29):

". China and Russia have [clear] strategic and
political intentions for spending so much effort and
money on a joint military drill that appeared to be
complicated and confusing to the outside world. Even
though the two nations have stressed repeatedly that
their military exercises are not aimed at any
[particular] threat or third nation, their statements,
in the eyes of experts, merely shows that the more they
try to cover up their intentions, the better-known they
will become. The greatest symbolic significance of the
joint Sino-Russia military exercises is that the two
nations are troubled and concerned about the current
changes in the geopolitics of Asia; in particular,
Russia [is concerned about] an expanded U.S. force deep
in the backyard of Central Asia, and China is eying
apprehensively the strengthened military alliance
between Washington and Tokyo in Northeast Asia and the
Taiwan Strait. The increasingly enhanced energy
cooperation between China and Russia and the security
challenges they both face have also tied the future
development and fundamental interests of the two more
closely together. Their joint military drills are a
concrete move to demonstrative their determination to
protect their own interests. ."

C) "Beijing's Saber-rattling"

An editorial of the conservative, pro-unification,
English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000]
wrote (8/27):

". But the show of force [by China and Russia] could be
counterproductive. On the one hand, the United States
would try to strengthen its military alliance with
Japan to maintain its military dominance in this part
of the world. On the other, Taiwan would be frightened
enough to beef up its defense by buying more modern
arms from the United States. It goes without saying
that Beijing's relations with Washington would be
adversely affected, just on the eve of an official
visit to the United States by Chinese President Hu
Jintao, who will meet with President George W. Bush on
Sept. 7 in the White House. The least thing Beijing
should do is to prove that it is a `threat' to the
world.

"But the saber-rattling gives fodder to China basher,
in Washington and elsewhere, that mainland China is a
threat, militarily and economically. It shows that the
country is eager to project its power beyond its
borders. ."

2. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

A) "US Opts for Cents and Insensibility"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (8/26):

"The news that Washington has canceled the highest
level US-Taiwan defense talks that take place each year
[in Monterey, California] is a reminder of the
inability of the Bush administration to conduct
sensible foreign policy, as well as brazen hypocrisy
when it comes to questions of principle.

"When Washington abandons pragmatism and ideology in
its diplomatic affairs, then what is left?
Unfortunately, the answer seems to be `damage control.
.'

"The problem with such reactive diplomacy is that it is
shortsighted and sends the wrong message to
Washington's allies, as well as its enemies - or
`strategic competitors' as the politically correct call
them. .

"The tension between China and Taiwan is neither a
minor trade dispute nor a diplomatic gaffe that can be
papered over. A conflict could involve the world's
largest economies - the US, China and Japan - in a
direct confrontation over vital strategic interests.

"Yet the Bush administration once again demonstrates
its lack of imagination as it sacrifices what is
clearly in the US' interest - support for a democratic
state on the periphery of its security frontier - just
so that Bush can have a nice, quiet photo-op with a
tyrant. .

"The White House is making a grave mistake allowing
itself to be influenced by Chinese President Hu
Jintao's visit next month. After all, the trip is an
exercise in fluff, and the most substantial thing that
is likely to come of it is hours of TV coverage of two
men in suits sitting in chairs with half-smiles on
their faces. .

"Before it decides to sacrifice necessary security
preparations, the US would do well to remember that
everything is achieved in East Asia came at the price
of blood.

"The shattered husks of fighters and warships that
litter the ocean floor from the Solomons to Okinawa -
and rivers of blood from soldiers and civilians - mark
the last time an ultra-nationalist, militant state have
to be brought to heel in the region.

"Does anyone want to see that happen again?"

B) "U.S.-China Ties Face High Hurdles"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
[circulation: 20,000] commented in an editorial (8/29):

". The drive by the Bush administration, under the
forceful leadership of Rice, to build a `candid,
constructive, and cooperative relationship' with the
Chinese Communist Party-ruled PRC government have
created huge challenge for Taiwan's Democratic
Progressive Party administration.

"In the light of this new trend, the DPP government
should carefully reevaluate the triangular relationship
between Taipei, Washington and Beijing and understand
thoroughly how the new `Asian team' of the Bush
administration perceives China. .

"As far as Taiwan is concerned, the pressure is on the
Chen administration to seriously design a grand
strategy that combines elements of strengthening its
relationship with Washington while at the same time,
closely observing and flexibly responding to the U.S.-
China rapprochement in a global context. ."

PAAL

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