Cablegate: Polish Right Victorious in Parliamentary Election

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003465

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLISH RIGHT VICTORIOUS IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

REF: A. WARSAW 3456

B. WARSAW 3360

1. (SBU) Summary. Preliminary results and exit polling from
Poland's September 25 parliamentary elections indicate a
convincing victory for the center-right Law and Justice (PiS)
and Civic Platform (PO), who are expected to begin formal
coalition negotiations as early as September 27. PiS's
narrow margin over PO means that PiS leader Jaroslaw
Kaczynski will be prime minister, with the deputy
premiership, the parliamentary speakership, and roughly half
of the ministerial positions (including, most likely, foreign
affairs, defense and finance) going to PO. Together, PiS and
PO can expect a comfortable majority in parliament, although
they will probably fall short of a two-thirds majority needed
to amend the constitution. The governing SLD performed better
than expected, taking fourth place behind the populist
Self-Defense and ahead of the right-wing LPR and the
Peasants' Party (PSL). PiS leaders have so far been subdued
and magnanimous in their apparent victory (final results will
be released mid-day September 27), while PO officials have
reacted variously, with would-be PM Jan Rokita evincing calm
and conciliation and others reacting more bitterly. Both
camps will approach coalition negotiations with the
presidential race in mind (the first-round vote is October
9); on election night, Kaczynski repeated his pledge to
refuse the prime minister post if his twin brother Lech is
elected president. End summary.

2. (U) With sixty percent of the vote tabulated, preliminary
results released early September 26 show PiS winning 26.56
percent, PO 24.08 percent, Self-Defense 12.44 percent, SLD
10.94 percent, LPR 7.83 percent, and PSL 7.11 percent. These
figures correspond roughly with most exit polls, but of
course can be expected to change somewhat as additional
returns are counted. The State Electoral Commission projects
that the above results would yield 151 parliamentary seats
for PiS and 123 for PO, giving a PiS-PO coalition about forty
more seats than the 231 it needs for a majority (but short of
the 307 for a two-thirds majority to amend the constitution).
The actual allocation of seats could vary considerably from
this projection, however, depending on the final results to
be released September 27. Voter turnout was estimated at
below 40 percent (a post-1989 record low for parliamentary
elections), reflecting widespread public disillusionment with
politics here.

3. (SBU) Speaking on election night, Jaroslaw Kaczynski had
many kind words to say about his prospective coalition
partner and about Rokita in particular. Kaczynski declared
that he will serve as prime minister, and that PO will get
exactly the same deal PiS would have gotten had PO taken
first place: the deputy PM, parliamentary speaker and half of
the cabinet posts. The PiS leader indicated that he could
not imagine a government without Rokita, whom he suggested
should serve as both deputy PM and foreign minister. PiS
will want two economic ministries, he said, along with the
interior, justice, agriculture and environment ministries.
Although Kaczynski was not explicit (except for his remark
about Rokita as foreign minister), it is widely assumed that
the MFA and defense ministries will go to PO, and that PO
will fight to secure the finance ministry. If so, Jacek
Saryusz-Wolski remains a prime candidate for the MFA, while
Bronislaw Komorowski is the only obvious PO choice for
defense (although his sharp rhetoric could make him
unacceptable to PiS).

4. (SBU) For his part, Rokita was gracious in defeat,
recognizing PiS's right to take the PM spot and hold the
initiative in forming a new government. Although evidently
disappointed with the results, he spoke with optimism about
the prospects for the coalition. Other PO officials, notably
Komorowski and Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, were less charitable,
evincing some bitterness at PiS and suggesting that the
Kaczynskis should look at coalition partners among the
protest parties (e.g. Self-Defense and LPR) if they couldn't
work things out with PO. Presidential candidate Donald Tusk
(PO) was more even-handed, attempting to sound reassuring
while at the same time raising doubts about the PiS program.

5. (SBU) Polish President Kwasniewski announced that he will
invite PO and PiS to begin formal coalition talks September
27, following announcement of the final results. Personnel
decisions aside, negotiations between PO and PiS on a
government program are bound to be difficult, especially
given the parties' divergent positions on economic policy.
The most significant factor affecting the pace of coalition
talks, however, could be the upcoming presidential elections,
which pit Lech Kaczynski against the front-running Tusk.
Neither party has an interest in papering over differences
between them with the presidential race in the balance;
indeed, Jaroslaw Kaczynski indicated that he thought it
unlikely that the government could be finalized before the
president is elected (either October 9 or in the second round
October 23). According to the Polish constitution, the newly
elected parliament must be seated by October 24, and the new
government is usually named shortly thereafter (within two
weeks, but as soon as possible) by the president.
Recognizing voter apprehension about the possibility of
identical twins serving simultaneously as head of state and
government, Jaroslaw Kaczynski repeated his pledge to step
aside for another PiS candidate if Lech is elected president.
Ashe

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