Cablegate: Nz Elections: Labour Victory Confirmed

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

030321Z Oct 05

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000764

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/EP, EAP/RSP, INR/EAP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
SUBJECT: NZ ELECTIONS: LABOUR VICTORY CONFIRMED

REF: WELLINGTON 719

1. (U) New Zealand's official election results, released
October 1, confirm a Labour victory with 50 seats in
Parliament and a slightly easier challenge in forming the
next government. The notable change from preliminary counts
on election night September 17 is the reduction of the
overall size of Parliament by one seat to 121 at the expense
of the National Party, which now holds 48 seats instead of
the 49 indicated earlier. The revision also reduces from 12
to 11 the number of supportive minority-party seats that
Labour needs to secure.

2. (SBU) Labour is already assured a coalition partnership
with Jim Anderton's Progressive Party, which holds one seat.
A Labour-Progressive coalition will need help from at least
two other parties to reach the 61 seats necessary to manage a
government. Its options are: New Zealand First (seven
seats), the Green Party (six seats), United Future (three
seats), and the Maori Party (four seats). Labour's task of
forming a government proves more challenging than in the 1999
and 2002 elections because it faces a reinvigorated National
Party. A sustainable government will require the
participation of at least four parties, whereas the prior
Labour-led governments required no more than three. As the
center-left narrowly outpolled the center-right (by less than
one point), Labour faces pressure to lean to center as it
formulates its strategy for forming a government.

3. (U) In the tally of 218,000 absentee and overseas party
votes, the Maori Party posted a stronger than expected
performance. While the final count leaves the party's seat
count unchanged, the party is likely to bear influence
disproportionately in excess of its four seats.
Burnett

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