Cablegate: Daily Iraqi Website Monitoring - October 30, 2005

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BAGHDAD 004451

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, NEA/PPD, NEA/PPA, NEA/AGS, INR/IZ, INR/P

E.0. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO IZ
SUBJECT: DAILY IRAQI WEBSITE MONITORING - October 30, 2005

SUMMARY: Discussions of Iraq under `U.S. occupation,'
December elections, and Sunni political participation were
the major editorial themes of Iraqi, Arabic language
websites on October 30, 2005. END SUMMARY.

-------------------------------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
-------------------------------

A. "Sanctions on Iraq" (Iraq 4 All News, 10/30)
B. "Iraq's Political Scene between U.S. Interests and
Upcoming Elections" (Kitabat, 10/30)
C. "The Election Battle after the Constitution" (Independent
Iraqi News Agency, 10/30)
D. "A Stand with Iraq's Next Stage" (Al-Nahrain, 10/30)

----------------------------------------
SELECTED COMMENTARIES
----------------------------------------

A. "Sanctions on Iraq"
(Editorial by Fatih Abdul Salam - Iraq 4 All News -
http://iraq4all.org/viewnews.php?id=10512 - Independent,
based in Denmark)

"Iraq remained under sanctions imposed on its political
leadership for over thirteen years. These sanctions
inflicted harm on people, but not only did they spare the
ruling regime, they were also a means for vicious enrichment
in a way that was never thought possible. Today, Iraq is not
far from U.S. sanctions. Everything follows the rules of
U.S. occupation forces, who control the country; no
security, economic, or political agendas can be implemented
without gaining the American green light, so as to avoid any
conflict what-so-ever with their overwhelming 161,000 troops
who are not willing to take any risks or jeopardize their
security.

"Every Iraqi politician is surrounded by the American vision
that seldom incorporates Iraqi interests. The American
vision restricts the politician's vision; he needs to be
extremely careful with his political vocabulary so as not to
find himself accused of violating the principles of
democracy and reform, especially with the presence of U.S.
followers who support the American agenda in a subordinate
and humiliating manner. It is not much different for
ordinary Iraqis, who are governed in their daily lives by
U.S. military patrols that set ever-changing routes which
Iraqis must follow from home to work and any other location.
And if one fails to follow these routes, Iraqis' lives might
be the price.

"In such an environment, a true democracy-or even a semi-
successful democracy-can never be built because democracy is
not an ethnic, sectarian, or doctrine-based impulse. A
reform in mentality should be the basis for democratic
practice, which should include traditional mechanisms that
begin with nominations and end with voting.

"The truth is that we are still under sanctions, not only
from U.S. tanks, but from the narrow views they have brought
along; they repeatedly overlooked violations committed
against democracy, and this has made any other view nothing
more than a solo tune with no hope of being heard."

B. "Iraq's Political Scene between U.S. Interests and
Upcoming Elections"
(Editorial by Kadhum Al-Bedairi - Kitabat - "Writings" -
http://www.kitabat.com/i9543.htm - Independent, based in
Germany)

"Who can speculate about the results of the next election?
Will the same alliances retain their memberships with the
same number of seats? In fact, the next parliament whets the
appetite for participation because it will be a parliament
with a four-year term and its first task will be to review
the constitution. This means that the alliances with larger
shares of seats will be more effective negotiating parties
regardless of negative or positive participation. In
addition to the constitutional review, there are other
issues, including occupation, proposed bases, and other
critical topics related to oil and regional affairs.

"Some researchers have indicated that foreign parties and
agendas have established presences on the Iraqi scene and
have been conducting activities for a long time now.
Everyone is gambling on what the future holds and everyone
is playing the role of the fortune teller in speculating
what the Iraqi political chart might look like after a
possible shuffle of cards.

"Among all of this we find America's presence in all the
vital details of the process. All deals are made under the
table and behind the scenes in complete silence-without any
clear indication of who will be Iraq's next knight. Allawi?
Chalabi? Will it be another face trained to be Iraq's
Karzai!!? And what a surprise it would be if this new
character were a cleric in a traditional outfit. Everything
is possible in Iraq today.

"The problem of which everyone here is aware is that
President Bush only has thirty-nine months left in office
with no hope until now of solving some of the problems that
have placed him in an unenviable position. These problems,
which signal an early start for what is known as `the second
term curse' have placed President Bush in a situation where
he attempts to present Americans with any shred of hope that
might provide him with an exit from his crisis, which
includes the mounting death and financial tolls of the war
in Iraq.

"The Iraqi election only presents American policy with
another obstacle. U.S. policy has classified the Iraq issue
as a top priority for the White House; it is unreasonable to
believe that the hundreds of billions of dollars spent and
over 2,000 troops killed and 17,000 wounded were all
sacrificed by the U.S. for the sake of Al-Ja'fari or Al-
Hakim, who know this fact only too well. As for whom the
next Ja'fari will be, this is still being cooked on calm a
fire."

C. "The Election Battle after the Constitution"
(Editorial by Ja'far Mohammed Ahmed - Independent Iraqi News
Agency - http://www.normal.iraq-
ina.com/showarticles.php?id=1535 )

"The announcement that three major Sunni Arab committees in
Iraq-the Islamic Party, the National Dialogue Council, and
the Iraq People's Conference-will form a new alliance to
participate in the December 15th election emphasizes Sunni
persistence to participate in the political process. They
see it is a legal and national necessity through which they
can convey their opinions about what is going on in Iraq
under American occupation.

"The new alliance of Sunni Arabs, under the name `Iraqi
Consensus Front,' is a bold step considering their loss in
the referendum battle, which ended in the constitution's
ratification.The new alliance may also help Sunni Arabs in
negotiations over constitutional changes, according to an
agreement achieved by American diplomats days before the
constitutional referendum.

"The Iraqi Consensus Front's announcement that the door is
open for any political entity or bloc that wants to join the
alliance signifies a call to broaden participation in the
election-and to disregard calls to boycott. It is also an
attempt to gather the Iraqi masses, and all its factions,
under one political bloc in order to achieve a positive
result and to benefit from the mistakes of the lost
referendum battle.

"Sunni Arabs are confronting a new test. Their masses should
be unified from now until the parliamentary election. They
should benefit from the lessons of the referendum and the
last boycott because ballot boxes are the best way to
express opinions. The new direction is required in order to
establish a strong electoral program that places the
country's interests above everything and gives priority to
driving the occupation out of Iraq, which would win great
popular support in the election. This would be a positive
result, enabling [Sunnis] to influence events in Iraq and
put an end to ethnic and sectarian conflicts. Will Sunni
Arabs win in the upcoming election battle? Or will the
referendum scenario be repeated?"

D. "A Stand with Iraq's Next Stage"
(Editorial by Youssif Fadhil - Al-Nahrain - "The Two Rivers"
- http://www.nahrain.com/d/news/05/10/30/nhr103 0g.html )

"What does Iraq expect after ratifying the constitution? The
answer to this question requires that one is aware of
several issues linked to previous events and current events.
Constitutional ratification was considered a major
achievement in the Iraqi political process. Ratification
would have been [an achievement] if the constitution was
passed in an acceptable manner. But its current status is
suspicious due to how the process was promoted-specifically,
America's concern in the subject and the way it was treated
as a necessity that could not be delayed.

"There are debts from which Iraq is suffering that exceed
$100 billion; they will not be written off unless Iraq wins
a certificate of good behavior from the World Bank and the
blessings of the main countries running the political
process in Iraq.May we have the right to ask about these
dues? Iraq is living in a state of security, economic,
institutional, agricultural, cultural and environmental
disappointment. Iraq is near disaster. It is enough to watch
on satellite channels the painful scenes of terror that
cause goose bumps because of their dreadfulness. It is
enough to hear about administrative and financial
corruption, not to mention the country's institutes, which
are more like coffee shops than places of work-to go to work
or not show up is all the same.

"The consecutive Iraqi governments have not had the
authority to make decisions unless the coalition
approves...To tell the people the truth and deal with
situations as they are will win the government respect,
enabling it to bypass difficulties and gain benefits for
Iraq from the occupying country. Lying to people will weaken
the government's stance in negotiations with occupation
forces.

"There is a probability that the U.S. will create military
alliances with the upcoming Iraqi government under the
pretext of fighting terror. This might be acceptable to the
Iraqi government because of the difficult security situation
in Iraq. But such alliances would create sensitivity issues
with neighboring countries. Haste in accepting or refusing
such offers might not serve the Iraqi people as much as it
might serve the interests of other countries.

"A country occupying Iraq will focus on developing crude oil
production. That might correspond with Iraq's economic
interests. Multi-national oil companies will invest and
develop, but not necessarily in order to benefit Iraqi
interests! Yes, Iraq is living through an economic crisis
and it needs money and investments. Investments would push
the country's economy and move it away from economic
recession. Thus, gradual and regular investment is better
than getting `quick' money that cannot be used in the best
way and, instead, may wind up being wasted or stolen or
allocated to illusory projects.

"Iraq will be pushed to borrow and find loans from financial
institutes such as the World Bank. That may result in Iraq
losing its ability to make independent political decisions.
Iraq and its people will become hostages to working off
debts. Many problems will be created among the central,
regional and provincial governments. And many of these
problems may seem normal because Iraq has had no practical
experience.

"We should be careful about organizing trade and
privatization. Iraq is underdeveloped economically,
administratively and culturally. Iraq needs a lot of time to
digest what has happened in the world. During this time, the
Iraqi economy should be protected from industrial goods and
agricultural products. We need a well-thought-out government
project that would aim to let the Iraqi industrial and
agricultural sectors flourish. The issue of Iraq joining the
WTO should not be considered by any Iraqi government in the
near future because of the abnormal conditions Iraq is
presently facing. These are some ideas which I hope
political powers will study and which I hope will motivate
those powers to be cautious during their upcoming political
work ahead of the election."

SATTERFIELD

© Scoop Media