Cablegate: Turkey: Opposition in Adana Hoping for Early Election

VZCZCXRO3150
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHDA #0145/01 1701054
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191054Z JUN 06
FM AMCONSUL ADANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4198
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 0746
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0647
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0108
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 0176
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 0798

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000145

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CASC TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION IN ADANA HOPING FOR EARLY ELECTION

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1. (SBU) Summary: In Adana, Turkey's fourth largest city, local
opposition leaders are pushing for an early national election to
prevent the Justice and Development Party (AKP)-controlled
parliament from choosing the next Turkish President. To do so,
they hope to stoke fears of an "Islamic threat" to the Republic
and to ride the wave of strong nationalism in Adana, rather than
offer an alternative program with concrete policy alternatives.
End summary.

2. (SBU) AmCon Adana poloffs recently held a series of meetings
with local opposition party leaders, including the provincial
chairmen for the Republican People's Party (CHP), True Path
Party (DYP), and Motherland party (Anavatan). The chairman of
the local branch of the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Action
Party (MHP) refused to see us. Adana has historically been a
left-leaning province, but that began to change in the mid- and
late-1990s. Current Adana mayor Aytac Durak was first elected
on the Anavatan ticket in 1999 (Anavatan was ANAP at the time)
and later joined the AKP. The more affluent Seyhan district of
Adana municipality is in the hands of the AKP as well, although
from 1999-2004 it was dominated by CHP. The AKP also runs
Yuregir, Adana municipality's poorer quarter. The nearby town
of Ceyhan, which is Turkmen-dominated, is an MHP area as well.

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Riding nationalism and "secularism" to early elections?
--------------------------------------------- ----------

3. (SBU) In a series of early June meetings, opposition leaders
in Adana asserted that Turks see that the AKP is not addressing
the country's core problems, like unemployment, and that there
is a growing expectation that there will be a national election
before November 2007--by which time an election has to be held.
In anticipation of an early election, opposition parties in
Adana are slowly beginning to map out an election strategy that
seeks to capitalize on the high level of nationalism here and on
what they claim is a growing public concern regarding the AKP's
"Islamic agenda." CHP provincial chairman Serdar Seyhan averred
that events in northern Iraq--both the ongoing PKK presence and
the perception of growing Kurdish autonomy--are fueling Turkish
nationalism, which will redound to CHP's benefit, he claimed.
One of Seyhan's aides noted that party chairman Deniz Baykal has
opened CHP's doors to voters on the right, because the party
administration recognizes that nationalism will be a political
force in any upcoming election. Seyhan himself was careful to
draw a distinction between what he sees as the MHP's brand of
ethnic nationalism and the CHP's Ataturkist (i.e. statist,
anti-religious) nationalism, which he asserted is a "positive"
version of nationalism. (Comment: In practice, however, there
is not much of a distinction. End comment.)

4. (SBU) Seyhan also invoked the specter of an AKP plot to
overthrow the state and install an Iran-like regime. DYP
provincial chairman Nevsat Saskin echoed Seyhan's sentiments in
a separate meeting. When challenged to demonstrate how AKP is
undertaking to undermine the Turkish Republic, Saskin and a bevy
of his comrades claimed that an outsider would not notice any
changes but that the AKP is acting in small ways to insert Islam
into every aspect of life in Turkey. One DYP official alleged
that some municipal services in Adana are being doled out based
on whether or not a person prays five times a day. In any case,
Saskin argued, DYP supporters are "more pious" and more serious
about religion than those who support the AKP, and voters in
Adana know this. Saskin also added that unlike the AKP, DYP
would have no problems working with the Turkish military. DYP
chairman Mehmet Agar, he said, knows the military well and, in
fact, "commanded" the General Staff in the 1990s. (Note: Agar
has served as national chief of police and Interior Minister.
In the 1990s while serving as Minister, Agar was implicated in
the infamous 1996 Susurluk scandal that revealed a shadowy nexus
among the mafia, politicians, and security forces. The Semdinli
incident has awakened fears in the Southeast of a re-emergence
of such groups. End note.)

5. (SBU) In contrast to the CHP and DYP leaders, the local
Anavatan chairman, Necati Erdem, sought to downplay both the
rise of nationalism over the last several years and the supposed
threat political Islam poses to the Republic. Erdem, who is a
former head of the local bar association, said that Anavatan
simply seeks to promote individual freedom and a "liberal"
economic policy. He claimed that Anavatan and its predecessors
have always sought close relations with the United States and
will continue to do so. Unlike his DYP and CHP, Erdem asserted,

ADANA 00000145 002.3 OF 002

Anavatan is not seeking an early election, because his party is
only now beginning to rebound from its historically low
performance in opinion polls. By 2007, he claimed, Anavatan
will be in position to either lead a government or be a
significant coalition partner.

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Post-2002 election lessons not learned
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6. (SBU) Although the opposition parties were largely trounced
in the 2002 election, our meetings revealed that their Adana
representatives have yet to learn many lessons from their
defeat. It is clear that the opposition hopes to use what it
sees as emerging, parallel social forces--nationalism and a
public reaction to the AKP's religious leanings--to win back
voters, but its leaders in Adana, especially those from the DYP
and CHP, speak often, it seems, from the same talking points.
There is little to distinguish them. More important, none,
except perhaps the Anavatan chairman, outlined a specific party
program or a set of alternative policies to the AKP's agenda.

7. (SBU) The more religious political parties in
Turkey--including the AKP and its predecessors--for years have
had effective, highly organized election machines at the
grassroots level, which explains in part the AKP's success in
both the 2002 national election and 2004 local elections. Based
on our meetings, the Adana branches of CHP and DYP appear not to
have adopted similar tactics. When prodded for specific
activities the parties are undertaking to win back the voters,
both the DYP and CHP chairmen spoke only generally of visits to
villages and small businessmen. CHP's Seyhan said his party
organizes "coffee shop" discussions from time to time, but the
effort did not appear to be consistent or organized. Anavatan
appeared to be slowly adopting some of the AKP's tactics but may
not have the popularity locally to make it work. Anavatan
chairman Erdem said his party is dividing Adana province into
200-person districts to which the party hopes to assign four
activists. The activists would then visit each person
individually to court them on behalf of the party.

8. (SBU) All three opposition leaders complained repeatedly
about media bias against them, both locally and nationally.
They claimed that the owners of the major outlets have business
deals with the AKP that lead to bias in news reporting.
Anavatan chairman Erdem claimed his local activists go from door
to door in Adana trying to get people to tune into party
chairman Erkan Mumcu's weekly address to his parliament group--a
speech carried only on state-run TRT, according to Erdem.
Replying to poloff's assertion that the national media seems to
have grown more critical of the AKP recently, DYP's Saskin said
the media only criticize the government if the media bosses'
material interests are being harmed.

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Comment: Nothing new from Adana opposition parties
--------------------------------------------- -----

9. (SBU) Although we are likely a long way from a true campaign
season--local AKP contacts continue to echo PM Erdogan, saying
the election will be held November 2007--our recent meetings in
Adana reveal opposition parties hoping simply to be "not the
AKP." Putting forward solutions for Turkey's lingering social
and economic problems is secondary--at best. The atmospherics
at all meetings were generally cordial and free of the
America-bashing we have seen in the past, probably partially
reflecting a widespread belief here that the U.S. can "control"
electoral outcomes in Turkey. As opposition leaders continue to
push for an early national election, they will look for signs of
dissatisfaction with the AKP and may wish to be seen as having
the U.S.'s endorsement.
REID

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