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Cablegate: Santa Cruz Prefect Predicts Win for Autonomy

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TAGS: PREL PGOV BL
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ PREFECT PREDICTS WIN FOR AUTONOMY

1. (SBU) Summary: Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas told the
Ambassador June 19 that he believed six of Bolivia's nine
departments would vote "yes" in the July 2 autonomy
referendum. He expressed frustration with the GOB's "double
talk," referring to President Morales' recent decision to
withdraw his support for autonomy, and commented that his
relations with the GOB were "cold." Costas speculated that
if autonomy received strong backing, and if Morales' Movement
Toward Socialism party failed to win the two-thirds vote
needed to control the Constituent Assembly, the GOB could
harden its position on a range of issues - and perhaps urge
supporters into the streets. End summary.

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2. (SBU) In a June 19 meeting with the Ambassador, Santa Cruz
Prefect Ruben Costas said he expected six of Bolivia's nine
departments - Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Pando, Cochabamba,
and Potosi - to vote "yes" in the July 2 autonomy referendum.
He said 70 to 80 percent of Santa Cruz inhabitants favored
autonomy, with the proportion even higher in Beni and Pando,
and suggested that even La Paz could endorse the proposal.

3. (SBU) Costas expressed frustration with the GOB's "double
talk," referring to President Morales' June 17 decision to
withdraw his support for autonomy and urge party bases to
vote against it. The prefect commented that his relations
with the GOB were "cold" and noted that Vice President Garcia
Linera's attempts to "soften" them had yielded little
constructive dialogue. According to Costas, Morales
perceives Santa Cruz as a "threat" and believes the
department may pose the only real challenge to his
government, particularly given the weakness of opposition
parties.

4. (SBU) Costas speculated that if autonomy received strong
backing, and if Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
party failed to win the two-thirds vote needed to control the
Constituent Assembly, the GOB could harden its position on a
range of issues - and perhaps urge supporters into the
streets. Costas said he doubted the MAS would win as much as
54 percent of the vote, the total garnered in December's
presidential election, and pointed out that this could be
perceived as a major blow to the Morales administration,
perhaps forcing GOB officials to take more radical positions
and resort to more familiar means (i.e., mass demonstrations)
of promoting change.

5. (SBU) Comment: Costas seems confident that Santa Cruz and
up to a majority of Bolivia's nine geographical departments
will opt for autonomy on July 2. Far less clear is whether
Evo Morales' MAS candidates will garner as much as the 54
percent vote for Constituent Assembly delegates that he
achieved in last December's presidential contest. End
comment.
GREENLEE

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