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Cablegate: Indigenous Heartland Divided On Elections

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DE RUEHQT #1588/01 1791619
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O 281619Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4725
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5751
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1840
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN 9922
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0720
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0751
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 001588

SIPDIS
CORRECTED COPY - CAPTION ADDED
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: INDIGENOUS HEARTLAND DIVIDED ON ELECTIONS


1. (SBU) Summary: The indigenous heartland provinces of
Chimborazo and Cotopaxi are predominantly indigenous
strongholds of the Pachakutik Movement. Despite Pachakutik's
dominance, the indigenous movement is fractured internally
over whether to run its own candidate or support Rafael
Correa, and also along religious lines. As a result, most
consider center-left candidate Leon Roldos to be the current
presidential favorite. Rafael Correa in Chimborazo, and
Alvaro Noboa in Cotopaxi, appear to be running second. There
is also lingering support for deposed ex-president Lucio
Gutierrez, in both provinces. End Summary.

Background
----------

2. (U) During a visit to the highland provinces of
Chimborazo and Cotopaxi on June 19-21 PolOffs met with
municipal and provincial officials, the provincial electoral
tribunals, political party leaders, and civil society
representatives to discuss local views on upcoming national
elections in October. In public events PolOffs highlighted
USG engagement and the importance of democratic elections.

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3. (SBU) PolOffs' visit to Cotopaxi province was preceded by
several days by Cuban VP Carlos Lage, who had visited with
President Palacio, to inaugurate the opening of an
ophthalmology clinic where Cuban doctors are currently
working. (Another such clinic was opened the same day with
Cuban support in populous coastal Guayas province.) Cotopaxi
Prefect Umajinga downplayed to PolOffs any potential
political role for Cuban technicians in the province, who are
invited only to fill yawning social deficits in medicine and
to fight illiteracy. The mayor and other mestizo leaders,
however, privately expressed concern over Umajinga's links to
the Cuba, where he has visited several times.

Provincial Electoral History
----------------------------

4. (U) The province of Chimborazo, named after the towering
6,267 m extinct volcano and Ecuador's highest point, has
316,500 registered voters, representing 3.6 percent of the
national electorate. Chimborazo is predominantly rural and
roughly 70 percent indigenous, with most of the mestizo
minority concentrated in the provincial capital of Riobamba.
Over 30% of the population is illiterate. Recently
evangelical Christianity has gained popularity in the
province, creating fissures in the predominantly Catholic
indigenous communities. In recent years, the Pachakutik
Movement, named after the 15th century Incan ruler Pachakuti,
has dominated the province. Significant ethnic divides
remain, however, between indigenous and mestizo leaders, and
between Catholic and evangelical protestant indigenous. The
evangelicals, represented by the "Amauta" movement, comprise
roughly 20% of the indigenous population.

5. (U) In 2004, Mariano Curicama Guaman (Pachakutik) was
elected Chimborazo's first indigenous prefect (U.S.
governor-equivalent) with 31% of the vote, while Angel
Ignacio Yanez, a mestizo allied with former president Oswaldo
Hurtado, a native son, won the mayorship of Riobamba with 30%
(and Pachakutik's backing). Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez
received 79% of the vote in the second round of the 2002
presidential elections; also-ran banana magnate Alvaro Noboa
(Roldosista Institutional Renewal Party-PRIAN) won just 21%.

6. (U) Meanwhile, the smaller (2.9% of the national
electorate) province of Cotopaxi, named for the world's
highest active volcano, is also predominantly indigenous,
with the same rural-urban divide between indigenous and
mestizo leaders. Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez captured 79%
of the second round presidential vote in 2002, with Alvaro
Noboa receiving 21%. In 2004, indigenous Cesar Umajinga
Guaman (Pachakutik) won re-election as prefect with 39% of
the vote. Mestizo Rafael Enrique Maya (PRIAN) won as mayor
of Latacunga with 26% the same year, narrowly defeating the
Democratic Left (ID) candidate.

Electoral Preparations Proceeding
---------------------------------

7. (SBU) Electoral Tribunal President Rocio Solorzano, who
hails from the Marxist Popular Democracy Movement (MPD) and
other electoral officials downplayed past incidence of
electoral fraud in the province. (Note: provincial election
officials represent the seven parties with the most votes at
the national level. The presidency of the tribunal at the
provincial level is also allocated for each province at the
national level, with the presidency not normally given to the
dominant party in the province. End Note.) Election
officials said they were overworked and constrained by the
geography and lack of resources. They had yet to receive
training from the national Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
in election procedures, and were focusing on getting
motivated and responsible people to man the polling stations.
In past elections, public sector bosses have assigned duty
to unlucky public employees. To remedy this, TSE officials
propose to use more local university students for the
upcoming election.

8. (SBU) Women's groups and independent election monitors
told us that women's electoral rights have been curtailed in
the past in both provinces. Most attributed this to the high
percentage of indigenous in the area, saying indigenous
culture is macho and limits the public role of women.
Solorzano, the first woman TSE president in Chimborazo, said
she would attempt to change this by applying to the letter
the law dictating the alternation of men and women candidates
on party lists. The law mandates a 45% quota for female
candidates. In the past, parties have violated the spirit of
the law by listing women as alternates, included spouses of
party leaders, and alternated multiple male candidates at the
top of the list, followed by an equal amount of women, below
the level considered likely to win.

9. (SBU) Cotopaxi Electoral Tribunal President Leonardo
Segovia (also MPD) told PolOffs that Cotopaxi had no history
of electoral fraud and that he was committed to running
transparent and fair elections. In contrast with his
counterpart in Chimborazo, Segovia was equivocal about
applying the male-female alternation law, noting the national
electoral tribunal (TSE) had ruled that it was open to
interpretation. He seemed certain that ex-President
Gutierrez would not be allowed to be a presidential
candidate. (Note: The TSE has ruled that Gutierrez violated
election law in 2002, stripping him of political rights for
two years. Gutierrez has appealed the ruling to the
Constitutional Court, which is expected to uphold it. End
Note.)

Roldos Leads, But Most Voters Undecided
---------------------------------------

10. (SBU) Despite the strength of Pachakutik in both
provinces, our contacts concurred that Leon Roldos currently
leads the polls for the 2006 presidential elections in their
province, as at the national level. Evangelical indigenous
have already joined Roldos in Chimborazo province. With
Pachakutik divided over whether to run its own candidate or
support Correa, many other indigenous voters could also
support Roldos. "Citizen Participation" NGO Chimborazo
leader Josefina Campana cautioned, however, that the majority
of voters in the province are still undecided.

Alliances Easier Said than Done
-------------------------------

11. (SBU) ID leaders in both provinces said they were
negotiating with Roldos' Ethical and Democratic Network (RED)
over possible joint slates of congressional candidates, with
some difficulty. In Cotopaxi, the RED/ID base was divided
three ways, with realistic prospects only for two of the
provinces four congressional seats. Without an accord
between at least two factions, Pachakutik would likely pick
up an extra seat, probably at the ID's expense. If no accord
is reached, the ID would "go it alone," according to ID
Cotopaxi leader Byron Burbano. According to ID Chimborazo
leader Dr. Diego Torres, Roldos would need 40 RED/ID deputies
in the next Congress to govern effectively. No official from
any party we met with believed that Rafael Correa would be
able to formalize an electoral alliance with Pachakutik, as
neither Correa nor Pachakutik's candidate, Luis Macas, is
willing to take a back seat.

Ex-President Gutierrez Still Strong
-----------------------------------

12. (SBU) Most in both Chimborazo and Cotopaxi agreed that
ex-president Lucio Gutierrez's popularity was still strong in
their region, and bolstered by recent visits. Latacunga
mayor Maya (PRIAN) claimed that the PRIAN, PRE, and Lucio
Gutierrez's party, PSP, would be forming an alliance, and
that after what is expected to be a failed attempt to
register as a presidential candidate on July 15, Gutierrez
would quickly shift his party's support to Noboa. The mayor
did not believe Gutierrez comrade in arms Fausto Cobo would
be Noboa's running mate. He thought Gutierrez' brother
Gilmar, or possibly Gutierrez' estranged wife, would take the
VP slot on Noboa's ticket.

Public Outreach Message
-----------------------

13. (U) PolChief discussed U.S. foreign policy objectives
and successes in Ecuador during radio and print interviews in
Riobamba on June 20 and again in Latacunga on June 21. Both
PolOffs also delivered speeches at a local high school in
Latacunga on June 21. Press coverage was factual. We
remarked on the strength of the USG-GOE relationship despite
difficulties in the commercial arena. We reaffirmed USG
commitment to working with Ecuador to strengthen democratic
institutions, including assistance to hold free and fair
elections, and security cooperation against common threats.

Comment
-------

14. (SBU) Divisions in Ecuador go beyond regions to include
ethnicity, religious, and rural/urban splits, in addition to
the multiplicity of political party interests normal to
competitive democracy. In the indigenous heartland, the
cultural and political divide between indigenous provincial
leaders and the urban mestizo elite was palpable. With the
indigenous forming the vast but fractured majority, Roldos, a
mestizo, leads the early polling. Should the
Correa-Pachakutik alliance ever be consummated, the electoral
balance in these provinces could shift. The congressional
competition is more muddled, with the mechanics of the
Roldos-ID alliance still to be resolved. Given the level of
fragmentation in these two poor but relatively homogeneous
indigenous provinces, it is no surprise that most Ecuadorians
worry the next government will have trouble governing.
JEWELL

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