Cablegate: Media Reaction: Middle East, Taiwan's Political Situation,

VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2439/01 2000910
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 190910Z JUL 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1164
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5434
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6637

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002439

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: MIDDLE EAST, TAIWAN'S POLITICAL SITUATION,
STATE DEPARTMENT'S TIP REPORT

1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their
coverage July 19 on the new "collective leadership" decision-making
style proposed by the DPP; First Lady Wu Shu-chen's alleged
involvement in the Presidential Office's allowance for state
affairs; and investigation into the Lafayette frigates kickback
scandal. The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest
daily, ran a banner headline on page two that read "Major Policies
and Personnel Planned to Be Decided by Central Standing Committee;
DPP Will Move Towards Collective Leadership." In addition, the
pro-status quo "China Times" has, for the third consecutive day,
devoted two inside pages to a special feature on Hong Kong, covering
its democracy and economics since the handover to China nine years
ago.

2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a column in the
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the crisis in the Middle
East. The article said even though the conflict between Israel and
Lebanon will escalate, the chances are slim for them to trigger a
regional war. A "Liberty Times" editorial, on the other hand,
discussed the "normalization" of cross-Strait charter flights, which
will be launched today, saying the policy will test President Chen
Shui-bian's credibility. An editorial in the limited-circulation,
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" said that to find
a way out of the political crisis surrounding President Chen, the
DPP should consider changing its decision-making system in the
post-Chen era. A column in the pro-unification "United Daily News,"
however, criticized the Chen administration's political crisis by
pointing to the State Department's 2006 Trafficking in Persons
Report, in which Taiwan was downgraded to Tier 2 watch list. End
summary.

3. Middle East

"A New War in the Middle East?"

Columnist Antonio Chiang commented in the mass-circulation "Apple
Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (7/19):

"... On the surface, Israel launched relentless retaliatory actions
against Hizbullah, but in reality, it has fears about the
repercussions of its action. Lebanon is after all a pro-Western
government; the situation will become more unfavorable for Israel if
the incumbent Lebanese government is toppled and replaced by a
pro-Syria regime. Even though the conflict between Israel and
Lebanon will escalate, as a result of international restrictions,
the chances are slim that they will trigger a regional war.

"First, the United States will not allow Hizbullah to upset its
entire strategy for the Middle East, and will try its best to
maintain stability in the status quo concerning Israel and Lebanon.
Second, the new Israeli government does not have the political
capability to sustain the after-effects of a war. Third, except for
Iran and Syria, no other Middle East country likes to see escalating
conflict between Israel and Lebanon, since they all cautiously guard
against radical organizations and any challenge to their regimes.
..."

4. Taiwan's Political Situation

A) "Normalization of [Cross-Strait] Charter Flights Tests President
Chen Shui-bian's Credibility"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
editorialized (7/19):

"... The DPP has been upholding the banners of 'opening' and
'economic coordination' since it came into power. For the past six
years, Taiwan's investments in China have far surpassed its
investments in other neighboring countries. But Taiwan's economy
has thus grown destitute and is showing many drawbacks. The DPP
administration's top priority right now is to feel the pangs of its
failures, take precautions after suffering losses, and revise its
previous westbound policy that damaged the island's national
interests. In his New Year's Day address, President Chen unveiled
his new policy direction - 'proactive management' [of Taiwan's
investments in China]. Chen also reminded the Taiwan people that
China is not the only market in the world, and that
internationalization is not equal to Sinicization; his purpose was
to improve the island's prior China-leaning practices.

"But six months have passed, and all we saw were liberalization
measures, one after the other, and nothing about proactive
management. Evidently the DPP administration is not practicing what
it preaches. Should we blame the administrative branch? No, the
officials are all appointed by President Chen, so Chen should be
held responsible for failing to implement his policy. ... But now
the government is about to implement the project of normalizing
cross-Strait charter flights. Whether the DPP government can stop

implementing its policy before it is too late is testing the wisdom
of the ruler and Chen's credibility. All Taiwan people are watching
[what Chen is going to do]."

B) "DPP Should Consider Post-Chen Era"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (7/19):

"... There is no disputing that the DPP faces a political crisis of
unprecedented severity. It is also true that this crisis is due to
Chen's mismanagement of state affairs. The president cannot escape
responsibility for this, but so far his failures have been political
and moral, not legal. In the political sphere, Chen has already
delegated some of some of his powers, heralding the arrival of the
post-Chen era. In the private sphere, Chen and his family are being
worn down by the pressure being put on them by political foes and
public opinion. But ultimately, Chen himself has not broken the
law, and finding him guilty by association is unreasonable. ... In
finding a way out of its crisis, the DPP should consider changing
the system rather than simply blaming Chen. Whatever happens to
Chen, the political scene and party affairs are now entering the
'post-Chen' era. The DPP National Convention, which begins on
Saturday, should deliberate on the model of collective leadership
operating through the Central Standing Committee. ..."

5. State Department's TIP Report

"Still Daring to Talk about Building a Human Rights State?"

The "Black and White" column in the pro-unification "United Daily
News" [circulation: 400,000] noted (7/19):

"In its 2006 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report, the State
Department included Taiwan in the Tier 2 watch list. The United
States evaluated the human rights situation in 150 countries, and
Taiwan ranked number 106, even trailing behind Pakistan, Turkey, and
Vietnam. Taiwan will likely receive economic sanctions from the
United States if it is downgraded to Tier 3. ...

"The Bian administration has repeatedly proclaimed that it has
'built a human rights state,' but in Washington's human rights
assessment report, Taiwan is listed in the one-third domain of
relatively poor human rights situations. Besides, it will be
sanctioned once it is downgraded again. How embarrassing is that
for Taiwan? The same situation also happened to Taiwan's economy:
The Bian administration has repeatedly said it wants to 'strive for
Taiwan's economy,' but the island's economy has declined to an
unbearable state while all other Asian countries have made
significant progress over the past years. ..."

YOUNG

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