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Cablegate: North Korea; the Caracas Summit; Venezuela's Entry Into

VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1515/01 1881236
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071236Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5136
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001515

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: NORTH KOREA; THE CARACAS SUMMIT; VENEZUELA'S ENTRY INTO
MERCOSUR; 07/06/06;BUENOS AIRES


1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

All local media report on Argentine President Nestor Kirchner's
address to the Venezuelan National Assembly, in which he
strengthened his alliance with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and
added that Venezuela "is a full democracy fighting for justice."
Papers speculate on the implications for the US, and they also
report on the international community's reaction to North Korea's
missile tests.

2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "The North Korean crisis opened new fissures within the UN
Security Council"

Alberto Armendariz, New York-based correspondent for daily-of-record
"La Nacion," writes (07/06) "As happened some months ago with the
Iranian nuclear program, North Korea's missile tests have created a
division within the UN Security Council. Japan called for an
emergency session expecting to win agreement for an immediate
international course of action, but it met China and Russia's
reluctance to increase pressure on Pyongyang.

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"... The Chinese and Russian ambassadors (both countries are
Pyongyang's trade partners) emphasized that the time has not come
yet for threatening sanctions and they supported a softer, non
binding, UN Security Council statement.

"... For his part, US representative John Bolton asked for a 'calm
and balanced' response from his colleagues and took the occasion to
emphasize US President George W. Bush's 'wisdom and leadership' when
he decided to abandon the ABM Treaty in 2001 and implement a complex
antimissile shield."

- "The Argentine position on North Korea"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (07/05) "According to Argentine
Ambassador to the UN Cesar Mayoral, the Argentine Government
believes that the North Korean missile tests 'endanger the world
peace and security'... The diplomat warned that, for the time being,
Argentina does not agree with implementing sanctions on Pyongyang
and prefers a diplomatic solution."

- "The US condemns North Korea, but the UN does not issue any
sanctions"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
comments (07/06) "The White House energetically condemned North
Korea's missile launching, but no consensus was reached at the UN
Security Council to implement sanctions.

"US President George W. Bush opined that North Korea 'is becoming
more isolated from the world' and US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice warned that if, by launching seven missiles, Pyongyang wanted
to compel Washington to sit to hold bilateral negotiations, it was
'wrong' because the US still believes that the best to do is
negotiating through the G6, which also includes Japan, China, Russia
and South Korea.

"Rice added that the international community unanimously condemned
the missile launching and has a number of tools to prevent these
operations.

"... US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton underscored that 'the tenor
of discussions shows that there is little support for these missile
launchings within the international community.'"

- "Venezuela raises commercial expectation and political
objections"

Gabriel Buttazzoni, columnist of business-financial, center-right
"InfoBae," writes (07/06) "President Nestor Kirchner's trip to
Venezuela was successful in all purposes. The Argentine President
was the one who promoted Venezuela's entry into Mercosur. At the
same time, bilateral ties were strengthened, particularly through
the announcement of the issuance of a common bond...

"According to economist Camilo Tiscornia, 'Venezuela's entry into
Mercosur will be highly positive for Argentina in terms of trade
because both economies are complementary and food sales are expected
to increase to a big extent.'

"... However, Tiscornia pointed out that 'Chavez is not well seen in
the international scenario, and this is why I do not know whether
this will be positive when Mercosur negotiates with the world. We
will have to wait and see whether they believe whether Mercosur can
put a brake on him or whether Mercosur will lose influence because

of this.'"

- "Mercosur consolidates its own profile and distances itself from
Washington"

Business-financial "El Cronista" reports (07/06) "In a double
challenge to the USG, the Mercosur countries announced their support
for Venezuela's entry into the strategic UN Security Council, and
they also started to analyze Hugo Chavez's proposal to unite the
Mercosur armed forces with the purpose of guaranteeing the region's
domestic security.

"The regional leaders' support for Venezuela's political plans in
the international field has marked a big distance with the White
House's purposes. The White House wanted to convince the South
American governments that supporting Chavez's application for the UN
Security Council is unadvisable.

"However, the Mercosur leaders dismissed Washington's
recommendations and in the same protocol in which they supported
Venezuela's entry into Mercosur they also supported the country's
entry into the UN Security Council."

- "Pros and cons of a partnership with the Venezuela of Hugo
Chavez"

Sergio Serrichio, political and economic columnist of
business-financial "El Cronista," writes (07/06) "Venezuela's entry
into Mercosur and the strengthening of the Argentine-Venezuelan
bilateral relationship seems a mutually beneficial measure. The
Caribbean country has energy surplus, it is a good trading
complement of Mercosur partners and has abundant liquidity...

"However, can Argentina distance itself from Chavez's policies or
gestures and dodge the cost of them?

"According to Jorge Castro, international analyst and former
secretary for Strategic Coordination during the Menem

SIPDIS
administration, the answer is negative. While he acknowledged the
positive aspects of the exchange with Venezuela, Castro warns that,
on issues like the Iranian nuclear development and Pyongyang
missiles, Chavez is confronted not only with the US, but also with
Japan, China and the EU. According to him, 'this affects the risk of
investing in South American countries in an environment in which
foreign direct investment in the region is lower than 15 years ago.'
This is why, according to him, Venezuela's entry into Mercosur will
make it more difficult to obtain foreign direct investment.

"... According to Diana Tussie, Flacso researcher, in contrast, the
issue is not so important. 'Mercosur does not have a common foreign
policy. A country is not damaged by the statements made by another.
Brazil does not have the same intellectual property policy as
Argentina, and this does not affect us.'"

3. EDITORIALS

- "Oil slick"

Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" editorializes
(07/06) "President Nestor Kirchner chose a strange way of
celebrating the 230th Independence Day of the US on Wednesday by
hobnobbing with the one of the main US bugbears in the region, Hugo
Chavez of Venezuela. There were few enough other novelties to report
about the Caracas summit - certainly not the 'historic' entry of
Venezuela into Mercosur, which was already announced last December
and which could take up to four years to become formal reality with
the maze of trade bloc norms and treaties still awaiting
ratification...

"Otherwise, the summit served to anchor a 'strategic alliance'
between Argentina and Venezuela, based largely on a generous flow of
oil and petrodollars alike in a southward direction...

"... Perhaps Chavez might be wary about drawing closer as
necessarily bringing him nearer while Mercosur should certainly be
wary of that well-oiled firebrand."

- "Trouble with the US due to friendship with Chavez"

Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" front-pages (07/06) "...
Yesterday, the Argentine government accrued negative signals towards
the US, whose government Kirchner has always wanted to praise. He
did it particularly in the security field (war on terrorism, Haiti,
etc), which is precisely where those signs launched by the President
were made obvious in Caracas: 1) Kirchner participated in a military
parade in which Hugo Chavez presented two war airplanes purchased
from Russia after Washington hindered Venezuela's arms sale. 2) In

an address to the Venezuelan Congress, Kirchner said that there is
full democracy in Venezuela. 3) Along with the other Mercosur
leaders, Kirchner signed a document supporting Venezuela's entry
into the UN Security Council, something rejected by the US. Is this
a turn in his policy or a call for negotiation?

"... All these signals imply an important turn in Kirchner's policy
toward the US, a country the Argentine government has rebuffed
during speeches but has praised if one takes into account the
measures taken by the Argentine administration.

"The Argentine government's support for Washington's war on
terrorism and the sending of peacekeeping troops to Haiti were
measures that had a political cost for Kirchner, but all the same he
took them as requested by the Bush administration."

- "Expansion of Mercosur"

Conservative "La Prensa" editorializes (07/06) "Along with
Venezuela's entry into Mercosur, the Argentine Government continues
strengthening its economic and commercial alliance with the new
partner...

"... The changes in Mercosur have improved Argentina's chances for
wielding regional leadership based on a guided handling of the main
macroeconomic aspects, and a sustainable-growth environment..., and
without seeking to establish a regional monetary fund that could
impact negatively on every country's domestic regulatory policies."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website
at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

GUTIERREZ

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