Cablegate: Senegal: Scenesetter for General Ward
VZCZCXRO2191
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #1623/01 1881522
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071522Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUFGNOA/USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5666
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 DAKAR 001623
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
FOR GENERAL WARD FROM AMBASSADOR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP ECON PHUM EAID MASS PGOV PREL SOCI KMCA
SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL WARD
SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) As the Mission and the Government of Senegal
prepare to host you, Senegal is preparing for presidential
and parliamentary elections in February 2007. The Senegalese
are proud to have a predominantly Muslim democracy that
preaches tolerance and visibly supports the United States in
promoting peace and combating terrorism. The Government of
Senegal (GOS) is seeking to enhance economic growth, both
short- and medium-term, to reinforce its prospects at the
polls. Growth has remained steady at five percent over the
last decade, though there are some signs it has slowed in
2006. Despite high rates of poverty and illiteracy, Senegal
retains a high degree of political stability and coherence.
This in turn enables it to be a diplomatic player on a
continent replete with conflicts. With U.S. training and
assistance, Senegal has also become one of the world's top
ten contributors of peacekeepers. Senegal aspires to become
a more significant trading partner, but internal barriers to
export-driven growth and continuing reliance upon foreign
assistance have greatly retarded these hopes. The prospect
of a successful private sector-driven Millennium Challenge
Account (MCA) Compact offers a realistic potential for
breaking with the past. Nevertheless, Senegal must do far
more to make its investment environment attractive enough to
entice serious foreign capital, and also to utilize its own
substantial domestic liquidity. Senegal could also do much
more to develop export agro-industry to benefit its largely
agrarian economy and further develop its relatively advanced
telecommunications infrastructure. Among other factors,
Senegal must push forward more vigorously with reforms and
strengthen its fragile judiciary that is lacking sufficient
resources and often subject to external influences. In fact,
the investigation and prosecution of leading politicians and
journalists in 2005 and 2006 has tarnished Senegal,s
impressive human rights record. END SUMMARY.
AN IMPERFECT DEMOCRACY
----------------------
2. (SBU) Senegal is at an interesting juncture in its
post-independence history, six years through the seven-year
tenure of President Abdoulaye Wade (pronounced "wahd") and
less than a year before presidential and parliamentary
elections. Wade was a determined and persistent opposition
politician from 1974 who finally won an open, peaceful and
highly competitive election in March 2000. His victory was
as much due to a strong Senegalese national desire for change
after nearly 40 years of Socialist Party governments, as it
was in favor of the "new" vision that Wade was offering. In
fact, having raised expectations somewhat unrealistically,
Wade has come under tough scrutiny and criticism for not
having realized many of his campaign promises. His
government also has not made much progress in implementing
the visionary projects he trumpeted while in the opposition,
though Wade has recently undertaken major public works
projects in Senegal that he hopes will benefit him
politically. Wade and his party, the Senegalese Democratic
Party or &Parti Democratique Senegalais8 (PDS), have
benefited from Senegal's institutionalization of democratic
values, respect for human rights, expansion of tolerance,
advancement of women's rights, and freedom of expression in
all its forms. As a consequence, the standards by which the
performance of his government is being measured are
admittedly higher than those of his predecessors, a healthy
sign that the large majority of Senegalese expect and demand
democratic behavior from this government. Therefore, the
investigation and prosecution of leading politicians and
journalists in 2005 and 2006 has tarnished Senegal,s
impressive human rights record.
SENEGAL'S UNIQUE BRAND OF ISLAM
-------------------------------
3. (SBU) Wade and other Senegalese leaders operate within a
unique context in Africa. In addition to the democratic and
tolerant environment noted above, Senegal is 95 percent
Muslim. It is instinctively resistant to religious extremism
in general and Islamic fundamentalism in particular. One
reason for this moderation is Senegal's distinctive,
syncretic and flexible interpretation of Islam. Another may
be its geographic position at the western edge of the Islamic
world. But perhaps the principal reason is the pervasive
influence of the Sufi brotherhoods, homegrown societies that
are hostile to external influences that they perceive as
undercutting their own stature. The overwhelming majority of
Senegalese identify themselves with one of the four principal
Brotherhoods (Tidjane, Mouride, Qu'adria, and Layenne).
Politicians use these affiliations to advance their policies.
Furthermore, this religious establishment has always closely
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associated itself with and strongly supported the state, and
has thus reinforced a strong social contract that has been a
bulwark against more extremist religious views.
SENEGAL'S ECONOMY: AN ACHILLES HEEL
-----------------------------------
4. (SBU) There is general economic stability (a result of
traditional indigenous welfare values). Economic growth has
averaged five percent annually in recent years but is likely
to fall to three percent in 2006. More than half the
population lives in poverty; one-third to one-half have no
reliable employment; the agricultural sector (in which 60
percent of the population is employed) is weak and
unreliable; and most youth see emigration as a panacea.
Historically, agriculture has focused on peanuts as a cash
crop adapted to Senegalese soil and climatic conditions. But
this sector has been in decline for several years and is
unlikely to regain its former importance.
5. (SBU) Senegal's manufacturing and services sectors are
hampered by major infrastructure weaknesses that prevent
Senegal from taking advantage of its favorable geographic
location. Senegal's underdeveloped road and dilapidated
railway systems do not provide adequate links to Senegal's
landlocked neighbors, who could profit from exporting through
Dakar's international port. Roads are overly congested in
major urban areas as well as poorly maintained almost
everywhere in the country. Electricity supplies are
unreliable, very expensive and far from universally
available. This is a problem for a rational industrial
policy where Senegal suffers a strong comparative
disadvantage because of expensive inputs such as electricity.
The Port of Dakar, the closest African port to the U.S. and
Western Europe, is in great need of modernization to meet the
potential demand of the sub-region alone.
6. (SBU) There are some bright spots though. Senegal met
its goals in the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)
program and achieved cancellation of its Paris Club debt in
July 2004. In 2005 and 2006, the IMF and the World Bank
forgave over USD 1 billion in multilateral debt, potentially
freeing up over USD 80 million per year for poverty
reduction. Senegal follows sound macroeconomic policies and
has maintained low inflation and restrained public sector
spending. The telecommunications system is excellent by
African standards, and after South Africa, has the second
largest bandwidth available for Internet access on the
continent. An American company is rehabilitating the
railroad between Dakar and Bamako and has already made
significant progress. The national airline, Air Senegal
International, has been very successful as a sub-regional
entity and acquired a new Boeing 737 for both domestic and
regional service, with prospects of adding another new 737 in
the next year. Although Senegal has not aggressively pursued
becoming a FAA Category One country meeting ICAO
international air safety standards, which would permit Air
Senegal to initiate direct flights to the United States, the
GOS is optimistic that it will attain Category One in 2007.
7. (SBU) Despite some successes the business environment
remains difficult. Senegal has traditionally been a French
and Lebanese expatriate business preserve. Nonetheless,
approximately 50 U.S. companies, including Citibank, Pfizer,
Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon-Mobil, IBM, Microsoft, Ernst and
Young, Fortesa Energy, Suffolk University, Boeing, DHL, UPS,
Western Union and Caterpillar, operate in Senegal. The
American Chamber of Commerce in Senegal is active and has
many Senegalese entrepreneurs with ties to the United States
as members. Input costs remain very high due to the weak
infrastructure, insufficient competition and rigid labor
codes and practices. An underfinanced and understaffed
judiciary tends to favor plaintiffs against foreign (and
domestic) investors. Corruption is an issue, and while Wade
has said the right things about combating it, members of his
own family are often rumored to demand bribes and percentages
of investments. While the Government rhetoric speaks
favorably of the benefits of the private sector, in practice
the Government involves itself in many major transactions and
potential investments that undermine the principles of free,
open and transparent competition.
8. (SBU) Senegal's exports to the United States average
about USD 3 million per year, principally in frozen fish and
foodstuffs for West African immigrants. The Senegalese
government long believed that Senegal could revive its once
thriving role as a regional center for apparel manufacture
through African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) exports.
While a few apparel companies are preparing to take advantage
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of AGOA here, government emphasis is now on preparing
Senegalese agricultural exporters to market traditional West
African agricultural products to the United States. Other
local farmers are pursuing exports of off-season conventional
fruits and vegetables, such as green beans.
THE COLONIAL LEGACY
-------------------
9. (SBU) France, the former colonial power, plays an
enormous role in the Senegalese economy. Over 250 French
companies are active in Senegal, and France is indisputably
the primary foreign investor. France furnishes approximately
one fourth of Senegal,s imports, which makes Senegal the
second largest French market in the West African Economic and
Monetary Union (WAEMU) after Cote d,Ivoire, and France
purchases over ten percent of Senegal,s exports. Annual
French aid to Senegal exceeds USD 135 million. One hundred
sixty-five (165) French technical assistants work in the
Senegalese Government or on French and international
development projects. France maintains marine, navy and air
force bases in and around Dakar with a total troop level of
over 1,100. More than 20,000 French nationals reside in
Senegal, and at least 42,000 Senegalese live in France.
SENEGAL'S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES START IN NEIGHBORHOOD
--------------------------------------------- ------------
10. (SBU) Senegal devotes major efforts to maintaining a
modicum of stability on its borders. While politically Wade
has worked hard to expand Senegal's role on the continent and
in world affairs, his government actually expends real
resources (financial, material and humanitarian) with its
near neighbors. For example, Wade has been engaged in
Guinea-Bissau since the September 2003 coup d'etat.
Characteristic of Senegal's regional anxieties, Wade and his
government continue to express great concern over the
eventual transition in nearby Guinea in light of the failing
health of its leader and the potential for disruptions there
and a resulting influx of refugees to Senegal. Also, the
sometimes erratic behavior of Gambian President Jammeh, who
rules the strategically located strip of land that juts into
Senegal, raises Senegalese concerns over The Gambia's
stability.
CASAMANCE CONFLICT
------------------
11. (SBU) Internal conflict in Senegal's southernmost region
of the Casamance has regional security implications because
it borders The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. During the 20 plus
years of conflict, some of the Casamance combatants sought
refuge in the neighboring countries. Over the past few years
good progress has been made to lower the level of conflict,
thus easing border tensions. A definitive political
resolution to the conflict remains an elusive goal, but the
Government and rebels signed a formal cease-fire in December
2004, and a round of negotiations was held in 2005. We have
tried to use our influence with GOS civilian and military
institutions as well as with community representatives in the
Casamance to achieve reconciliation and a lasting resolution
to the conflict.
U.S. ASSISTANCE
---------------
12. (SBU) In addition to supporting the Casamance peace
process, U.S. assistance to Senegal has focused on Muslim
outreach, health, education, export promotion, promotion of
women,s rights, good governance and decentralization.
Approximately 130 Peace Corps Volunteers are involved in
health, education, natural resource management and
micro-enterprise programs. Our model Muslim outreach program
consists of assisting daaras (koranic schools), sending imams
to the United States on International Visitor programs and
donating Arabic- and English-language materials to Islamic
schools and libraries. The proposed MCA Compact would more
than double annual U.S. aid, building an industrial platform
25 miles east of Dakar to decongest the capital, create
thousands of jobs in agro-industry and other sectors, and
help GDP growth to reach eight percent per annum. MCC staff
labeled Senegal,s Compact proposal the most complex and the
most potentially transformative of any MCA proposal received
from the first 16 eligible countries.
COMMITMENT TO REGIONAL PEACEKEEPING/COOPERATION WITH U.S.
--------------------------------------------- ------------
13. (SBU) In the 1990s the USG initiated the African Crisis
Response Initiative (ACRI), a military assistance and
training program to provide African militaries with the
capability of participating in peacekeeping operations,
principally in Africa. ACRI complemented what remains the
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largest International Military Education and Training (IMET)
program in Sub-Saharan Africa. One objective of ACRI was to
obviate the need for U.S. "boots on the ground" in areas
where U.S. interests were at stake. Senegal was a major
beneficiary and nearly 1,400 troops received U.S. training
under ACRI, which is now known as the Africa Contingency
Operations Training and Assistance (ACOTA) program and is
part of the Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI). This
has paid major dividends through the engagement of Senegalese
troops in their traditional areas of interest (Cote d'Ivoire)
and in areas of traditional interest to us (Liberia). Their
troops are also deployed in peacekeeping operations (PKOs) in
Darfur, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(DRC), where a Senegalese officer, LTG Baboucar Gaye,
commands UN forces. Senegalese paramilitary gendarmes also
serve as civilian police in UN PKOs in Bosnia-Herzegovina,
the DRC and Haiti. In each of these engagements the
Senegalese have earned the well-deserved reputation of being
highly professional, disciplined and respectful of civilian
populations and customs. Concurrently, the United States has
continued to strengthen bilateral cooperation through officer
training in the U.S.; an active visits program; provision of
military equipment; and successful regional deployments
(Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone) involving joint
operations. The former Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General
P.K. Fall, is a graduate of Fort Leavenworth, the former
commander of ECOWAS troops in Cote d'Ivoire, and a good
friend of the U.S. He assumed duties in June 2006 as the
Senegalese Ambassador to China. His replacement, Major
General Abdoulaye Fall, was the UNOCI commander in Cote
d,Ivoire before becoming the Chief of Staff.
THE U.S.-SENEGAL AGENDA
-----------------------
14. (SBU) For the U.S., Senegal represents our most
important francophone partner in Africa. Perhaps not
coincidentally, President Wade perceives of himself as a good
friend of President Bush. He basked in the glow of the
President's visit in July 2003, his December 2004 visit to
the White House, Secretary of State Rice and Secretary of
Agriculture Johanns, July 2005 visits and invitations to the
last two G-8 summits. For Senegal, the U.S. represents an
attractive alternative to complete dependence on France. We
also embody values that Wade would like to establish in
Senegal, particularly economic ones. The basis of our
economic successes stands in stark contrast to Senegal's
first 40 years of statist socialism. However, there is a
realistic appreciation among knowledgeable Senegalese that
the U.S. is not likely to supplant France as its principal
partner any time in the foreseeable future.
15. (SBU) On terrorism, Senegal has been among the first
African states to recognize the dangers posed to its own
security by international terrorism. It has cooperated
actively with the U.S. in the global war on terrorism, and
Senegal has ratified 12 of the 13 key anti-terrorist
conventions and protocols identified by the U.S. President
Wade has also sent a set of draft laws to the Ministry of
Interior that would expand the definition of terrorist acts
and increase punishments for these acts. Senegal is also
leading regional efforts to combat terrorist financing.
Intelligence sharing and vigilance along Senegal's borders is
good and continues to improve through well-established
channels. A word of caution, though: Senegal has agreed to
host the next summit of the Organization of the Islamic
Conferences (OIC), tentatively set for 2008. Because of a
lack of resources, it will be highly dependent on Islamic
states to finance all the arrangements. We have raised our
concerns with Senegal's leaders over the potential for
unwanted influences from radical Muslim states, such as Iran.
The Senegalese have tried to reassure us that they expect to
receive adequate financing from Senegal's "moderate" friends.
16. (SBU) We continue to scrutinize Senegal's relationship
with Iran, Libya, Venezuela and Cuba. Thus far, Senegal has
done a good job in compartmentalizing and managing those
relationships to ensure that they do not act to undermine
Senegal's stability. We also continue to remind Senegal's
leaders that too close an embrace will not be well understood
nor well appreciated in Washington. Thus far, Wade has
gotten the message. With respect to the situation in Iraq,
Senegal has been more neutral than during the first Gulf War.
(Senegal proudly provided troops to help evict Saddam from
Kuwait.) Senegal resisted French pressure to take a more
critical posture, and in fact Wade publicly noted his
satisfaction that Saddam had been removed from power.
BOTTOM LINE
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17. (SBU) Senegal under Wade is a good partner, very
sympathetic to U.S. interests, and regularly seeking ways to
deepen the relationship. Senegal is eager to receive
critical Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) funding, and
the GOS is eager to conclude its Compact in 2006.
Economically, Senegal continues to seek U.S. partners and
participants to improve its economy, especially in
agro-industry and transport. A larger number of U.S.-trained
personnel sympathetic to the American way of doing business
now occupy more key governmental, business and civil society
positions than ever before, and this trend is growing,
especially in education and the private sector, where it is
greatly enhanced by new technologies.
18. (SBU) Bilateral relations are very warm and continue to
deepen as we expand our areas of cooperation and seek
additional sectors of mutual benefit. Senegal also carefully
considers potential U.S. reactions to its particular foreign
policy decisions, often responding favorably when we express
our concerns, or when we seek GOS support. In sum, Senegal
enjoys a close identification with the United States and many
of our policies and values. We just need to be mindful of
the human rights issues and of some Senegalese sensitivities
to too tight of a public embrace.
JACOBS