Cablegate: Humala Movement Losing Steam in Arequipa
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DE RUEHPE #2743/01 1941956
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131956Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1381
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3659
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6888
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9671
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL QUITO 0540
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0733
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 002743
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA MOVEMENT LOSING STEAM IN AREQUIPA
REF: A. LIMA 2625
B. LIMA 2582
C. LIMA 2428
D. LIMA 1154
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SUMMARY
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1. Radical opposition leader and former presidential
candidate Ollanta Humala carried the Arequipa region by a
wide margin in Peru's 6/4 presidential race. Despite that,
the prospects for pro-Humala candidates in upcoming regional
and municipal elections are uncertain. Humala has lost
credibility as splits have appeared in his movement.
Furthermore, many young Arequipenos favor the Peru-U.S. Free
Trade Agreement (FTA) as a way of boosting local tourism.
Allegations of corruption have weakened the prospects for
APRA party incumbents in both the Regional Presidency and the
Mayor's Office of Arequipa. All this should be good news for
Evangelical-based Restauracion Nacional (RN) party. However,
RN's followers in Arequipa are deeply divided. Right now,
the most likely outcome for November elections appears to be
municipal and regional governments run by independent local
actors. END SUMMARY.
2. Poloff visited Arequipa 6/28-7/4 to gauge how local
residents view upcoming regional elections. Arequipa is
Peru's second-largest metropolitan area and capital of a
politically and economically important region in the
country's south. It has a history of resentment toward Lima
and has steadily shifted to the left becuase of significant
migration from neighboring Puno. Former Peruvian Nationalist
Party (PNP)/Unidad por el Peru (UPP) alliance presidential
candidate Ollanta Humala handily defeated APRA
President-elect Alan Garcia 64.6% to 35.4% in Arequipa, in
the 6/4 presidential election.
3. Poloff met with a diverse range of local residents,
including: Father Javier Len, Catholic priest, Director of
the Arequipa Social Action Movement (MASA), a faith-based,
pro-development NGO; Alonso Quintanilla, Rector of the
Catholic University of San Pablo; Gabriele Cabieses, Director
of the Institute of the South, a prominent vocational school
educating Sector C and D youth; Marcio Soto, mayor of the
township of Paucarpata and candidate for mayor of Arequipa in
November 2006 regional elections; Jorge Losada, Arequipa city
Councilman and APRA party leader; and Jaime Gutierrez,
Evangelical Pastor of the Agua Viva (AV) Christian Community
of Arequipa and local Restauracion Nacional (RN) party
activist.
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HUMALA'S POPULARITY WANING
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4. Ollanta Humala remains popular in Arequipa, but his
support has waned since the 6/4 run-off election (Ref D).
Many Arequipenos now question Humala's competence,
leadership, and organizational abilities since divisions in
his UPP-PNP political alliance first appeared in mid-June.
So far, three congressional representatives have left the
UPP-PNP legislative bloc (Ref C). Furthermore, over the
weekend of 7/8-7/9, spokespersons for both the UPP and the
PNP indicated that each organization would run its own
candidates in November regional elections.
5. Contacts in Arequipa said that voters had overwhelmingly
chosen Humala on 6/4 not out of any fundamental loyalty, but
instead had used him as a vehicle to protest against
"politics as usual." Humala's actions since the election --
splits in his movement and problems with his UPP partners --
suggest to locals that Humala may, in fact, represent more of
the same. Local interlocutors added that President-elect
Garcia,s development plans for the south, if successful,
would further undercut Humala,s support in the region.
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MANY PRO-HUMALA AREQUIPENOS ARE PRO-FTA
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6. Arequipa,s post-election political ambivalence was on
display during Poloff,s visit, which coincided with a call
for national protests by opponents of the recently approved
Peru-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) (Ref B). Although
Arequipa has been a bastion of anti-FTA activity, attendance
at two anti-FTA protests was modest, with only 80 persons
showing up in the central plaza for a protest on 6/28 (the
same day that the Peruvian Congress approved the FTA) and 300
marching on 7/4.
7. Local interest in the FTA is based on Arequipa's growing
tourism sector, which has provided jobs for increasing
numbers of local youth. In conversation, young residents
equated the FTA with increased tourism. Locals also
explained the modest turnout for the protests as the result
of poor UPP-PNP political leadership. A number of contacts
alleged that UPP party members are often paid to protest.
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HUMALA'S WEAKNESS PROVIDES NO ADVANTAGE FOR APRA
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8. APRA currently controls both the Arequipa Regional
Presidency as well as the city Mayor. However, both
incumbents are unpopular, and local observers did not expect
either to win continued support from APRA, much less
re-election. Arequipa suffers from sub-standard public
services, and infrastructure remains decrepit or non-existent
in many areas -- particularly the poor slums surrounding the
city-proper. APRA leader Jorge Losada predicted that his
embattled party might not formally run candidates in local
elections, but might instead throw its financial support
behind independent local candidates who both agree with, and
have the administrative capacity to help implement, Alan
Garcia's national and regional development agendas.
9. With the political standing of both Humala and APRA
weakened, there remain 35 different groups -- in addition to
the well-established political parties -- that are poised to
offer candidates for both regional and municipal posts in the
November elections. Four candidates will likely compete for
the departmental presidency, and, as of now, only one is
associated with a known political party. Similarly, the
three leading candidates for mayor all have local roots and
are not associated with national parties (although there are
rumors that one of these candidates may join Humala's PNP
party ticket).
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RESTAURACION NACIONAL DIVIDED IN AREQUIPA
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10. The weakened positions of both Humala and APRA at the
local level should spell opportunity for RN, the
Evangelical-led party that proved to be the surprise
vote-getter in national presidential elections held 4/9.
However, while RN appears strong and well organized in other
poor departments (Ref A), the party's leadership in Arequipa
is deeply divided. RN's presidential candidate, Humberto
Lay, does not enjoy good relations with the local branches of
the Agua Viva Church (AV), one of the best-organized
Evangelical churches in Peru and a key logistical supporter
of Lay's presidential campaign. Local AV Pastor Jaime
Gutierrez told Poloff that Lay had appointed his own people
to run RN's local headquarters and that they were not
religious leaders who commanded respect within the
church-going community. Consequently, Gutierrez was unable
to predict RN's performance in the upcoming regional
elections.
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COMMENT:
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11. It appears that Humala's vision of a "solid south" may
fade as local political forces reassert themselves. There is
no lack of political activism in Arequipa where, as in much
of Peru, local caudillos, candidates, and mini-movements
abound. These continued political divisions at the local
level could make it difficult for President-elect Alan Garcia
to find rliable partners for his development plans. In the
south, the fragmentation factor may become Garcia's next big
challenge. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE