Cablegate: No Winner in Mexico's Presidential Elections Until

R 031304Z JUL 06
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UNCLAS MEXICO 003662

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: NO WINNER IN MEXICO'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS UNTIL
JULY 5

1. (U) Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) announced
July 2 that frontrunner presidential candidates Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador (Revolutionary Democratic Party -- PRD) and
Felipe Calderon (National Action Party -- PAN) were
effectively neck and neck after both exit polls and quick
counts were tallied. As a result IFE will not declare a
winner in the presidential contest until all the votes are
tallied July 5. Post recommends NO congratulatory or other
calls be made until IFE's vote count is complete and
officially announced.

2. (U) In other races, the PRD as expected won the contest
for Mexico City mayor, with candidate Marcelo Ebrard taking
an early and large lead. Preliminary results indicate the
PAN won gubernatorial contests in Jalisco, Morelos and
Guanajauto. Prelminary congressional results indicate that
the PAN (35 percent) and PRD (31 percent) gained some ground
at the expense of the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI)(28
percent), but no party has a majority or even a plurality.

3. (U) Thus far Mexico City is calm in the face of an
uneventful voting day with few irregularities initially
reported. IFE's delay in announcing a winner will probably
not result in unrest if an announcement is made as expected
July 5. Anyone can watch the vote count on IFE's internet
tallying site, a mechanism that will help preempt allegations
of vote rigging. Still, with a race this close the odds are
even better that electoral challenges will surely follow (and
must be filed by July 9).

Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

GARZA

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