Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 07/13/06

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 003921

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
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DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/13/06
Part-1
INDEX:
(1) Realistic policy line of international cooperation penetrating
Bush administration

(2) Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe denies preemptive strike argument:
"Difficult to strike prior to being hit"

(3) G-8 Summit kicks off on July 15; Situation does not warrant
optimism regarding setting up pressure on Pyongyang with Russia
hinting at exercising veto right against sanctions; Japan at crucial
point

(4) Okinawa City Assembly failed to adopt protest resolution against
PAC-3 missiles; Safety of Okinawa residents left unaddressed

(5) Poll on DPRK missile firing, Koizumi cabinet, post-Koizumi race

ARTICLES:
(1) Realistic policy line of international cooperation penetrating
Bush administration

YOMIURI (Page 6) (Full)
July 12, 2006

By Washington Bureau Chief Masaomi Terada

In an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun, US President George W.
Bush used the word "common" many times such as "common threat,"
"common goal," and common voice." The President expressed clearly by
using the word "common" that in order to break the impasse,
cooperation among the major countries is indispensable for his
administration, which has many difficult security issues, such as
the war on terror and the nuclear programs of both North Korea and
Iran. The Bush administration is now facing a situation in which it
cannot handle issues independently as it once did due to the
diversity and diffusion of conflicts. A realistic policy of placing
emphasis on cooperation is now gradually penetrating the Bush
administration. It is said that the 2001 terrorist attacks caused
concern for Americans regarding security for the first time since
the 1962 Cuba missile crisis. Gaps between the US as a military
superpower and Americans' psychological anxiety had a great impact
on US actions after that. That was seen in the Iraq war.

The Bush administration had to face many harsh realities over the
past five years. More than 2,500 US soldiers were killed in the Iraq
war. Popularity ratings for President Bush have remained at a low
level of less than 40 PERCENT , dropping from the 90 PERCENT level
soon after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US. The US posted
an unprecedented $400 billion budget deficit. The administration's
wiretapping in the country and the treatment of terrorist suspects
at the US Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay have come under strong
criticism as symptoms of excessive government power.

The situation brought about by the terrorist attacks greatly
diverges from the basis of the conventional US foreign policy of
dealing with international affairs by keeping a balance between
pragmatism and idealism. However, the situation is finally returning
to what it was once before. More than the Bush diplomacy having
changed per se, the complicated international situation has forced a
rollback of US foreign policy.

The present situation where there remain many problems is comparable
to the situation that President Harry S. Truman faced at the

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/13/06
Part-1
INDEX:
(1) Realistic policy line of international cooperation penetrating
Bush administration

beginning of the Cold War. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is a
follower of the views of Secretary of State Dean Acheson, who served
under President Truman. One of the features of Secretary Rice's
foreign policy is her attaching importance to international
cooperation. President Bush underscored his idealism in the
interview, saying, "Freedom is universal. We should be concerned
about those who live under a dictator." The Bush administration,
which is trying to adjust its idealism to match a realistic policy
line, might have begun to learn the lessons of history.

(2) Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe denies preemptive strike argument:
"Difficult to strike prior to being hit"

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
July 13, 2006

Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe in a press conference on July 11
referred to the argument calling for Japan to have the capability to
strike enemy bases in North Korea that had launched ballistic
missiles, stressing: "There has been criticism that the argument is
for a preemptive strike at the point when the other country has
still not initiated a military attack, but that is completely wrong.
No one is talking about preemptive strikes." He was responding to
criticism from South Korea, which had taken his earlier remark as
calling for preemptive strikes.

In the press conference, Abe explained the conventional government
view: "In case our country is attacked by guided missiles or the
like, as long as there is no other means to prevent the attack, it
would be within the scope of our right to self-defense as a legal
argument for us to hit those bases with guided missiles or the
like."

There would have to be a comprehensive judgment as to whether the
enemy country had initiated an armed attack by such means as: 1)
international situation; 2) clarification of the other countries
intentions; 3) and the means of attack. In addition, he stated: "As
a practical problem, it would be extremely difficult to judge if
such is being initiated." On the question of whether an enemy-base
strike was permissible, he stated: "There is a high possibility
after (a missile) has been launched and damage sustained."

Regarding the propriety of possessing the capability of striking
enemy bases, he stated: "The question is whether we should have such
in addition to the joint response (capabilities) of Japan and the
United States. We need to study this within the context of role
sharing of the US being the spear and Japan the shield."

(3) G-8 Summit kicks off on July 15; Situation does not warrant
optimism regarding setting up pressure on Pyongyang with Russia
hinting at exercising veto right against sanctions; Japan at crucial
point

YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full)
July 13, 2006

Jerusalem, Hidetoshi Watanabe, Economic News Section Shigeki
Kurokawa

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/13/06
Part-1
INDEX:
(1) Realistic policy line of international cooperation penetrating
Bush administration

The 32nd Summit (St. Petersburg Summit) will be held for three days
starting on July 15. Russia, which will chair the meeting for the
first time, had intended to focus on energy security as the top
agenda item. However, North Korea's ballistic missile launches and
Iran's nuclear development issue have come up as main subjects for
discussion. Prime Minister Koizumi, who will step down in September,
wants to make his last Summit a venue for the eight major
industrialized nations to stand together in dealing with the North
Korea issue.

Koizumi, now visiting Middle East nations, underscored during a
joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, held on
the afternoon of the 12th (evening of the same night, Japan time):
"The North Korean missile launches are not an issue concerning only
Japan and the region around it but they are concerned with
international peace. The international community needs to unite and
send a message in a determined manner to Pyongyang in order to stop
it from launching another missile. Olmert chimed in, "Non-democratic
countries manufacturing conventional weapons is of concern for the
international community."

Japan wants to tighten the noose around Pyongyang in tandem with the
move to adopt a draft resolution against Pyongyang at the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC). It is paying close attention to how
Russia will respond.

Russia, along with China, is against the idea of adopting a
sanctions resolution, but other G-8 member nations have shown
understanding to Japan. Japan at first took the view: "Being the
chair of the Summit for the first time, Russia wants to avoid
becoming isolated. It has no other choice but to face North Korea in
a severe manner," as a government source put it. However, the
situation does not warrant optimism with Foreign Minister Lavrov
hinting at exercising Russia's veto against the adoption of a
resolution.

Koizumi will meet with President Putin on the evening of the 15th in
St. Petersburg. He intends to strongly urge Putin to deal with North
Korea's missile launches in a strong manner at the Summit.

North Korea's missile issue will likely be taken up on the 16th.
Koizumi plans to lead discussions in cooperation with US President
Bush, his close friend, who has a strong interest in the missile
issue.

The issue of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea has been
incorporated in chairman's summaries for three consecutive years
since the Evian Summit in France in 2003. Japan will work on other
member nations to include the issue in this year's chairman's
summary as well.

Possibility of solidarity on Iran's nuclear issue also in doubt

The Summit will be focused on to what extent G-8 nations can act in
unity for the purpose of urging Iran to accept a package of
proposals submitted by the five permanent members of the UNSC and
Germany in early June.

Iran remains unclear about whether it is ready to accept the package

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Bush administration

or not. There is no sign of its meeting the deadline of making a
reply by the Summit, as called for by the US and other countries.

The five permanent members of the UNSC and Germany will foreign
minister-level meetings on the 12th and the 13th in Paris and
discuss how to respond to the issue. The US is eyeing the
possibility of adopting a sanctions resolution against Iran at the
UNSC, if it rejects accepting the proposal package. However, Russia
is cautious about slapping sanctions on Iran.

Japan will basically line up with the US. However, Iran is Japan's
third largest oil supplier. Japan also has interests in the Azadegan
oil field. Its real feeling is, therefore, that it does not want to
enter into discussions on imposing stiff sanctions on that country,
as a senior MOFA official put it.

It is difficult to support Japan's sanctions stance, says Russian
foreign minister

Moscow, Akira Furumoto

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov yesterday lashed out at Japan's
stance on the North Korean sanctions resolution, saying, "It is
utterly unacceptable." He hinted at the possibility of Russia
exercising its veto right when the resolution is put to a vote.
Noting that Japan's stance could stall the six-party talks, Lavrov
maintained that the UNSC's measure should not include emotional or
intimidatory elements against Pyongyang."

(4) Okinawa City Assembly failed to adopt protest resolution against
PAC-3 missiles; Safety of Okinawa residents left unaddressed

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Pages 26, 27) (Abridged)
July 13, 2006

The assembly of Okinawa City, home to Kadena Air Base, is being
shaken by the planned US force realignment. On July 5, the assembly
planned to adopt a protest resolution against the deployment of
Patriot ground-to-air missiles as part of missile defense. But the
plan fell through because the session was thrown into confusion by a
Taepodong missile fired by North Korea that day. This article
examines sentiments of residents of the US base town.

"Simply put, the situation has changed. We didn't expect that North
Korea would seriously launch missiles in this day and age. But now,
we have to face such a reality." Okinawa City Assembly Chairperson
Morikatsu Kohama explained this was why the assembly had not adopted
on July 5 the resolution protesting the deployment of Patriot
Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles.

In April, Mitsuko Tomon, a former Social Democratic Party lawmaker,
was elected mayor of Okinawa City. As a result, the city assembly is
now composed of 10 progressive ruling-party members and 17
conservative opposition-party members.

But both the progressive and conservative members were opposed to
the deployment of PAC-3 missiles. "The deployment would definitely
strengthen the base functions, and the US military has not been
accountable to local citizens," noted Kohama, who is also an

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/13/06
Part-1
INDEX:
(1) Realistic policy line of international cooperation penetrating
Bush administration

opposition party member.

The solidarity between the ruling and opposition camps was blown
apart by the news that North Korea had fired missiles in the early
hours of July 5.

Assemblies of Kadena, Chatan, and Yomitan had adopted anti-PAC-3
resolutions before the North test-fired the missiles.

The missile launches shook up conservative members.

Kohama cited some conservative members as saying: "The Security
Council of Japan is now in session. It is improper for us to adopt
the resolution because that would mean that we are clearly opposed
to the central government."

The conservative members, who had been supportive of the resolution,
objected to it in the end. Ruling party members still attempted to
adopt it on July 5, but the opposition block boycotted the session.
As a result, the session was called off.

"Discussion beyond the local level"

Kohama added:

"We have discussed the subject regardless of reality to some extent.
The North Korean missile launches made us realize that the PAC-3s
could defend the lives and property of local residents."

Since its establishment in 2002, the base special committee has
protested the US military every time an incident involving US
servicemen occurred. The city assembly has adopted 23 protest
resolutions. The ruling and opposition camps had never split over
any protest resolutions until the one against the PAC-3.

"The PAC-3 is different in nature from other accidents and
incidents. The matter has transcended the level of local
assemblies," Kohama said in a serious tone.

Okinawa City assemblyman Shutaro Uchima, an independent raised an
objection:

"The deployment of PAC-3s could cause damage greater than that from
other bases. It's absurd to complain about minor dangers and remain
silent about a major danger. Enduring the PAC-3s in the name of
Japan's defense may not allow us to express our views about damage
from US bases in general in the future."

Hideaki Ikehara of the Japanese Communist Party warned:

"The theory that the PAC-3s will protect the people's lives is a
lie. Once they are deployed, the base will become a prime target for
an attack."

What is the PAC-3 anyway?

The PAC-3 is an improved version of the PAC-2, which was developed
by the US Army and attracted attention during the Gulf War. The
ground-based PAC-3 is known for its high accuracy to intercept a

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INDEX:
(1) Realistic policy line of international cooperation penetrating
Bush administration

ballistic missile. The US military plans to deploy PAC-3s at Kadena
Air Base before year's end.

Defense Agency Director-General Fukushiro Nukaga categorically said
before the Lower House Security Committee on July 6 that the agency
plans to deploy Patriot missiles at Air Self-Defense Force bases by
the end of fiscal 2006 instead of fiscal 2007.

Military analyst Osamu Inagaki explained the Defense Agency's plan
this way:

"The deployment is designed to deal not only with North Korea but
also China. Patriots can cover up to 500 kilometers south of Japan.
The deployment will help increase Japan's deterrence against other
countries, which may not actually fire missiles at Japan."

Motoaki Kamiura, a military journalist, offered a critical view:

"The US military's view is that of all the US bases in Japan, Kadena
Air Base is most important and that PAC-3s are necessary to defend
it. In theory, the PAC-3s is capable of shooting down a ballistic
missile flying at Mach 3-10 in a split second. Having a range of 30
kilometers, it can defend an area of 5-10 kilometers in diameter. It
is often likened to hitting a fired bullet with another fired
bullet, which is extremely difficult. In reality, the PAC-3 is
useless. Even if a missile carrying a chemical warhead was
intercepted, the debris would cause damage to nearby residents.
After all, the PAC-3 is designed to defend base facilities and
runways, not residents."

How do local experts view the PAC-3 deployment plan?

Tsutomu Aragaki, a lawyer leading the Futenma Air Station noise suit

SIPDIS
legal team, took this view:

"The PAC-3 deployment plan and the North's missile launches are
directly linked. In the wake of the missile launches, the city
assembly should have discussed the plan squarely. The failure to
adopt the anti-PAC-3 resolution indicates that the city assemblymen
are not aware of the gravity of the plan. The deployment of PAC-3s
will entail major changes to the equipment. The views of affected
municipalities and the Okinawa public must be heard first. It has
become clear that the PAC-3s are for defending the base. We must
become aware that the US base armed with PAC-3s will post a great
risk of being attacked and that the safety of Okinawa residents will
be left unaddressed. The recent attempt to expand the interpretation
of the right of self-defense in connection with the North Korean
missiles, which would eventually change the nature of the SDF, is
dangerous."

Professor Masaie Ishihara of Okinawa International University also
lamented:

"The timing of the North's launching of the missiles was bad for
Okinawa's anti-base movement. It was unfortunate that Pyongyang
launched them on the day the city assembly was scheduled to adopt
the protest resolution."

(5) Poll on DPRK missile firing, Koizumi cabinet, post-Koizumi race

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INDEX:
(1) Realistic policy line of international cooperation penetrating
Bush administration

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
July 8, 2006

Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage.)

Q: North Korea fired a number of missiles including a Taepodong-2
ballistic missile. Do you feel that North Korea is a threat?

Very much 54.4
Somewhat 22.4
Not very much 13.7
Not at all 6.1
No answer (N/A) 3.4

Q: In response to North Korea's missile firing this time, the
Japanese government decided right away on sanctions against North
Korea, including measures to bar the North Korean ferry
Mangyongbong's entry into Japanese ports and restrict human
exchanges with North Korea. Do you support these sanction measures?

Yes 91.8
No 4.6
N/A 3.5

Q: The government also mulls stopping money remittances from North
Korean residents in Japan to their home country and restricting
trade with North Korea. What do you think about these economic
sanctions?

Implement immediately 64.8
Implement in stages 27.8
No need to implement 4.3
N/A 3.1

Q: The government wants the United Nations Security Council to adopt
a resolution denouncing North Korea and seeking sanctions on North
Korea. Do you support this course of action?

Yes 90.3
No 3.8
N/A 5.9

Q: Do you think Japan should work together with the US to expedite
the development and deployment of a missile defense system that can
shoot down enemy missiles?

Yes 62.6
No 24.1
N/A 13.2

Q: Do you think North Korea's missile firing this time will further
delay a solution to the issue of Japanese abductees?

Yes 77.8
No 12.5
N/A 9.7

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Bush administration

Q: Do you think Japan and North Korea should normalize their
diplomatic relations as soon as possible?

Normalize as soon as possible 28.3
Normalize but no need to hurry 43.3
No need to normalize 21.3
N/A 7.1

Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet?

Yes 48.5
No 39.9
Other answers 3.8
N/A 7.7

Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has clarified that he would leave office
when his term as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
expires in September this year. Who do you think is most appropriate
for the next prime minister? Pick only one from among the five
persons listed below.

Taro Aso 4.5
Shinzo Abe 47.8
Sadakazu Tanigaki 1.9
Yasuo Fukuda 20.7
Taku Yamasaki 0.6
Others 0.3
Not on the list 14.6
N/A 9.6

Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 7-6 over the
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. A
total of 1,702 persons with one or more voters were sampled across
the nation, and valid answers were obtained from 969 persons (56.9
PERCENT ).

SCHIEFFER

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