Cablegate: Media Reaction: Campaign to Oust President Chen Shui-Bian
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHIN #2982/01 2412344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 292344Z AUG 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1862
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5597
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6800
UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002982
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CAMPAIGN TO OUST PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN
1. Summary: Former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh's formal announcement
Monday that the sit-in rally to oust President Chen Shui-bian will
kick off September 9 stayed in the Taiwan's media spotlight August
29. News coverage also focused on the possibility of a visit by
China's Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin in October.
Several papers carried on inside pages the results of a latest DPP
survey, which showed that even though 77.5 percent of those polled
believe the campaign to oust President Chen will not succeed, 47.2
percent said they still support the campaign. The same poll also
found that only 12 percent of respondents said they will join the
sit-in rally, while 88 percent said they will not.
2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, criticized
Shih's moves to oust President Chen, saying it will only divide and
disturb Taiwan society. An analysis in the pro-unification "United
Daily News" said in the battle between Shih and Chen, KMT Chairman
Ma Ying-jeou is in the least favorable position. But the article
also pointed out that the KMT, which holds a majority of seats in
the Legislative Yuan, will be the one that can really solve problems
within the system. With regard to U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, an
opinion piece in the limited-circulation, pro-independence,
English-language "Taipei Times" said "It is high time the U.S. pays
attention to Asia, so government officials do not inadvertently
advance the interests of another nation at the expense of the U.S."
End summary.
3. Movements to Oust President Chen Shui-bian"
A) "Movement to Oust Bian Outside the System Will Split and Disturb
Society"
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
editorialized (8/29):
"... Evidently the sit-in campaign to oust Bian, which was initiated
by Shih Ming-teh and is strongly supported by the pan-Blue camp, is
just part of the struggle to oust Bian. The struggle to oust him
within the system, as claimed by the oust-Bian forces, also includes
moves to impeach or recall the president, or even to cast a
no-confidence vote on the Cabinet, all of which are part of a
conceived strategy. In other words, the oust-Bian forces want to
mobilize people from within and outside the system 'until A-Bian
steps down.' Such a plan will make this serial even more severe.
...
"A sit-in is a democratic right of the people, but whether it is
legitimate to exercise such a right must depend on whether the issue
which people address is appropriate or not. The call for A-Bian to
step down should hinge on whether the evidence is sufficient enough
to judge [Chen's] rights and wrongs. Should it really prove that
President Chen is involved in irregularities, those who support him
must not back him blindly. But judged by the current situation, it
is still insufficiently legitimate to replace the judiciary system
or democracy with pressure exerted outside the system, and to
thereby create emotional confrontation between those who support
Bian and those who oppose him, a move that will surely split and
disturb society. ..."
B) "It is Ma Who Will Have to Catch the Ball in the Bian-Shih
Confrontation"
Journalist Lo Hsiao-ho noted in an analysis in the pro-unification
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (8/29):
"... In this battle between Bian and Shih, Bian has the support of
Green stalwarts and the protection of his presidency, and will not
easily back down. Shih, who has undergone numerous battles, will
not be willing to leave the field without achieving anything,
either; the many reforms of the political system will likely become
secondary objectives that he wants to achieve. In this battle, Ma
Ying-jeou is in the least favorable position. Problems like social
order, political stability, or how to tackle the mounting public
voices calling for Bian's ouster will put Ma in a straitened
circumstance; and he may be hurt severely if he fails to handle it
carefully. ...
"All people in Taiwan know that Bian will not step down; a
revolutionary as smart as Shih must also know it clearly. Even
though he has not abandoned his goal to oust Bian, there are
naturally many political possibilities [facing him]. Shih has no
soldiers in the political arena, and the KMT, which holds a majority
of seats in the Legislative Yuan, is the one which is really able to
solve problems within the system. [If Shih's campaign fails] the
overwhelming public sentiment will likely rush forward to the KMT.
The KMT should ponder on how to deal with such a powerful political
current. ..."
4. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations
"Wishy-washy Policy Hurts the US"
Li Thian-hok, a commentator based in Pennsylvania, opined in the
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] (8/29):
"... The Bush administration pays insufficient attention to
developments in Taiwan or China and the US is preoccupied with
problems in the Middle East. It does not have a clear policy on
Taiwan's future as part of a comprehensive, long-term strategic
vision of the US role in Asia. US policy toward China and Taiwan is
adrift, focusing on short-term goals and superficial, mundane
affairs. There is little consensus as to what policy will serve US
national interests. Asia will most likely prove to be the most
important region for US security in this century because of the
rapid rise of authoritarian China and the lack of an effective
multilateral security arrangement in this region. It is high time
the US paid attention to Asia so government officials do not
inadvertently advance the interests of another nation at the expense
of the US. ..."
YOUNG