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Cablegate: Tfle01: A/S Welch Meets with Speaker Berri

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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 060728Z AUG 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4915
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0021
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002541

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2016
TAGS: IS LE MOPS PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: TFLE01: A/S WELCH MEETS WITH SPEAKER BERRI

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: On August 5, NEA Assistant Secretary
Welch, Ambassador, and PolOff met with Lebanese Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri, accompanied by Foreign Policy Advisor
Ali Hamdan, at his office in Ain al-Tinneh, Beirut. A/S
Welch explained to Berri the two-phase resolution being
proposed to end the violence. While professional and engaged
throughout, Berri described the resolution as favoring
Israel. Berri believes that if the Israelis do not withdraw
from Shebaa, he cannot pressure Hizballah to relinquish their
arms. He indicated that prisoner exchanges can be discussed
later. Berri strongly disagreed with having Israeli soldiers
remain in Lebanon after a cease fire pending deployment of a
stabilization force. As long as there are Israeli troops in
Lebanon, Hizballah will fire on them, which will further the
violence and sectarian strife. Berri recommended that
Israeli troops withdraw to the Shebaa farms and remain there
until the implementation of the second phase of efforts to
resolve the conflict. He emphasized the importance of having
Shebaa as something tangible to induce Hizballah to stop
fighting and disarm. END SUMMARY.

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2. (C/NF) A/S Welch opened the discussion by stressing to
Berri that the United States agrees that the time to stop
fighting is now. The future of Lebanon is at stake and
Berri's role is critical. A/S Welch explained to Berri the
two-phased strategy, with two resolutions, being proposed to
end the violence. He emphasized that the first phase would
end the violence, freeze the Israeli forces in their present
southern Lebanon positions, and open the door toward the
delineation of Shebaa Farms. The second phase, to be
implemented as quickly as possible after the first, would
withdraw Israeli forces, deploy an international
stabilization force, and offer a role for the UNSYG to
provide options on Shebaa Farms.

3. (C/NF) Berri recognized that the U.S. is working hard to
achieve a peace. He explained that he could put pressure on
Hizballah to stop fighting if the circumstances were
acceptable. However, he needs not only to convince Hizballah
but to be convinced himself first. Based on the A/S's
description, Berri said that he is not ""personally convinced""
with what is being offered. He described the proposal as
""giving Israel everything and giving Lebanon nothing.""

Shebaa Farms
------------

4. (C/NF) Berri stressed that the Israeli refusal to return
Shebaa farms to Lebanon in the first phase is a signal that
Israel does not want to ""close the door on the conflict.""
Berri believed that if the Israelis do not withdraw from
Shebaa, he cannot pressure Hizballah to relinquish their
arms. He told A/S Welch that the resistance will have a
right to remain as long as Israel is present in Lebanon.

5. (C/NF) A/S Welch told Berri that Israel would not agree
to withdraw from Shebaa Farms in the first stage because such
a step would appear to be surrendering land to a terrorist
organization. Berri noted that he and the entire Arab world
are convinced that the USG can convince Israel to withdraw
from Shebaa Farms now. A/S Welch offered that in Prime
Minister Siniora's seven points, there is a specific
reference to Shebaa Farms, and in the resolution draft the
first phase will address delineation and the second phase
there is a role for the UNSYG to provide options that the GOL
would consider.

6. (C/NF) The Ambassador then explained that the role of the
UN is a common factor between PM Sinora,s seven points and
the proposal. The seven points call on the UN to address
Shebaa Farms while the resolution gives the UN
Secretary-General a major role in the process.

Soldier Exchange
----------------

7. (A/NF) A/S Welch told Berri that the soldier issue is a
problem that will be solved on the side. The Israelis are
not giving up on their soldiers but this issue will not be a
part of the current process. Berri explained that he
understood PM Olmert,s view not to exchange soldiers. He
reflected on past soldier exchanges in which thousands of
Arab fighters were exchanged for a few Israeli soldiers.
This time, however, the exchange would be two Lebanese
fighters for the two Israeli fighters. Nonetheless, he
agreed that this could be discussed later, and he gestured to
put the issue aside. A/S Welch informed Berri that the U.S.
would not be involved in the soldier exchange issue.

Israeli Soldiers
In Lebanon
----------------

8. (C/NF) Berri recommended that in the first phase, Israeli
soldiers should withdraw and 10,000 soldiers from the
Lebanese Army would deploy to the south. In what was an
unprecedented statement for a Lebanese Shia leader, Berri
vowed that he would lead the army to the south, driving a
jeep in front of the tanks. A/S Welch cautioned that the
Lebanese Army is not seen by Israel as sufficiently strong to
stop Hizballah from firing rockets into Israel and that a
complementary international force is needed. Berri responded
by saying that the Lebanese Army is capable and has been
highly regarded in this debate until now.

9. (C/NF) Berri expressed deep concern about the
resolution's assumption that Israeli occupying troops will be
frozen in place until the deployment of the stabilization
force. He advised that as long as there are Israeli troops
in Lebanon, Hizballah will fire on them. Responding to A/S
Welch's suggestion that the time be compressed as much as
possible, Berri said that it does not make a difference if
the duration between phase one and phase two is one day or
one month. When fighting breaks out, Berri will have to take
a position against the UN and the resolution. In addition,
if there are Israeli troops in Lebanon the hundreds of
thousands of diplaced Shia will not go home. He warned that
if the U.S. cares about avoiding sectarian strife in Lebanon,
Israeli soldiers must withdraw. ""If the Shia remain outside
their area for more than one month, then I can't secure unity
in Lebanon,"" he counseled.

10. (C/NF) Berri stated that he will rebuild the south
again, but could not do so with Israeli forces there. ""What
I built in 22 years they have destroyed in 22 days,"" he
lamented. However, he stated that he is adamant to lead the
Shia back to the south when Israeli troops leave, just as he
claimed to do after previous times of strife. A/S Welch
assured Berri that the U.S. would be a partner in rebuilding
Lebanon with emphasis on the south.

Berri Recommends Inclusion
of Siniora's Seven Points
--------------------------

11. (C/NF) A/S Welch affirmed to Berri that to bring an end
to this conflict GOL must act on this resolution quickly.
Berri asked for clarification on the two phases and gestured
to his aid to take notes. A/S Welch explained the two phases
again and Berri replied, ""it won't work."" Instead, he
recommended that six or seven of PM Sinora,s seven points be
included in the resolution, that the number of UNIFIL troops
be increased, and that deployment of the Lebanese Army
immediately follow the ceasefire.

12. (C/NF) Berri then said that he would support Israeli
troops withdrawing to the Shebaa farms and remaining there
until the implementation of Phase Two. He argued that it is
important for both sides to have something tangible. In his
view, Israel will have 10,000 Lebanese Army soldiers in the
south protecting the borders and Hizballah will have the
withdrawal of Israeli troops from the south. By having
something tangible he can pressure Hizballah to stop fighting.

Comment
-------

13. (C/NF) Berri took strong issue with the proposed
formula on Shebaa Farms, which he found too ambiguous, and
the idea that Israeli troops would occupy parts of Lebanon
until the stabilization force moved in. But he also remained
deeply engaged and professional, signaling that he wants to
play a role. Berri's role is key in making sure that there
is Shia buy-in to any cease-fire plan. And, while Berri
instructed his ministers to vote with Siniora's 7-point plan,
he may not give the same instructions if a resolution that he
finds unacceptable on Shebaa and IDF withdrawals comes before
the cabinet.

14. (U) Assistant Secretary Welch has cleared this cable.
FELTMAN

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