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Cablegate: Lebanon: A/S Welch Explains New U.S. Position To

VZCZCXRO5761
OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHLB #2580/01 2211640
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 091640Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4969
INFO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0922
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0045
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002580

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016
TAGS: IS LE MOPS PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: A/S WELCH EXPLAINS NEW U.S. POSITION TO
SPEAKER BERRI

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

SUMMARY
--------

1. (C/NF) On August 5, NEA Assistant Secretary Welch,
Ambassador, and PolOff met with Lebanese Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri, accompanied by his foreign policy advisor Ali
Hamdan, at Berri's office in Ain al-Tinneh, Beirut. A/S
Welch reviewed with Berri the possibility that, under a
potential UNSCR, an Israeli withdrawal could begin once a
sufficently enhanced UNIFIL and the LAF are effectively
deployed to the south. Reviewing his meeting with PM Siniora
(septel), A/S Welch informed Berri that, while the PM accepts
a larger UNIFIL force under Chapter 6, the UNSC is likely to
look at Chapter 7 for the multinational force. Expressing
deep concern that the Israeli withdrawal would be delayed
until UNIFIL is enhanced, Berri called the new proposal a
response to Israeli demands and not a compromise. Berri also
expressed concerns that fighting will continue because
Hizballah will fire on Israeli troops in Lebanon even after
declaration of a ceasefire. Responding to the A/S Welch's
warning that a collapse of discussions on a UNSCR would allow
the situation on the ground to get much worse, Berri
concluded that he must confer with Hizballah before making a
decision as to his own views. END SUMMARY

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2. (C/NF) A/S Welch expressed to Berri his concern that the
situation on the ground is getting more dangerous as time
proceeds. Yet there had been some positive developments
since his last meeting with the Speaker, especially in light
of the 8/7 GOL cabinet decision to deploy the LAF to the
south. A/S Welch stressed that the USG now had a commitment
from Israel that the IDF would withdraw from Lebanon and that
this commitment would be explicitly stated in the Security
Council resolution. A/S Welch cautioned that a rapid IDF
withdrawal is predicated on when the Lebanese Army and the
international force can deploy effectively and in sufficient
numbers to the south.

The ""New"" UNIFIL
-----------------

3. (C/NF) A/S Welch noted that, at least at the beginning,
the international force did not have to be invented from
scratch as a MNF. Instead, drawing upon existing cabinet
decisions, UNIFIL could be expanded and given new mandate and
scope of operations to serve this purpose. The Assistant
Secretary informed Berri that Prime Minister Sinora accepts a
larger UNIFIL force under Chapter 6. However the Security
Council will look at Chapter 7 for the multinational force.
He warned that whatever the result, Hizballah could not be
present in the area of operation. A/S Welch pressed on this
point, saying ""this has to be clear.""

4. (C/NF) A/S Welch advised Berri that the U.S. is willing to
accept the ""new"" enhanced and improved UNIFIL under Chapter 7
now. He told Berri that the Security Council may act today
or it may not act. A Security Council resolution today will
mean a cessation of hostilities. However, there will be a
time gap before the new UNIFIL can be deployed because of the
practicalities of forming and mobilizing the force.

5. (C/NF) A/S Welch reminded Berri that during their last
meeting on August 5, Berri said that Israel would not
withdraw. ""Now I am telling you they will"" exclaimed A/S
Welch. The withdrawal would not be immediate, but it would
be fast.

""Not A Compromise""
------------------

6. (C/NF) Berri focused on the fact that a gap would remain
between the passage of the resolution and the departure of
the Israelis. He claimed that the new proposal is a response
to Israeli demands and not a compromise. Berri asked A/S
Welch to recall that during their last meeting he had
suggested the idea of deploying the LAF in the South and was
able to deliver. Berri expressed his desire to work on
resolving the conflict via the U.S. because ""America can
pressure Israel"" and because Americans do not want innocent
people killed. He presented A/S Welch with a report that
since their last meeting on August 5, 199 Lebanese have been
killed and more injured.

7. (C/NF) Berri explained to A/S Welch that before the August
7 Lebanese Cabinet meeting, he had received a call from MP
Saad Hariri who was engaging the French government. Hariri
advised Berri that Israel would withdraw if the Cabinet made
the decision to deploy 15,000 soldiers to the south. Wanting
to grap the opportunity of trading LAF deployment for an
Israeli withdrawal, Berri accepted the terms without
consulting Hizballah.

8. (C/NF) Berri accused Israel of moving the goal posts.
Deploying the LAF was Israel's only demand and now they want
more. He cited the multinational force as an additional
Israeli demand and added, ""let them put it on their side of
the Blue line.""

9. (C/NF) Berri said that GoL would welcome a greater UNIFIL
presence ""with their tanks."" However, he would not be able
to convince Hizballah to accept a multinational force. He
warned that if talk continues about a multinational force,
""Siniora has to find someone else to talk to Hizballah.""

Shebaa Farms
------------

10. (C/NF) Responding to the Speaker's questions, A/S Welch
confirmed to Berri that the position in the UNSC resolution
regarding Shebaa Farms will not change. Berri commented that
without an Israeli withdrawal from Shebaa farms he couldn't
convince Hizballah to release their arms. As in his August 5
meeting with A/S Welch, he recommended that Shebaa Farms be
turned over to the United Nations. He added that putting
Shebaa Farms under the control of the UN would not mean that
it is being turned over to Lebanon.

11. (C/NF) Berri argued that once Shebaa Farms is under the
control of the UN, its status will be resolved between
Lebanon and Syria in the future. Berri commented that Syrian
Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem, during his August 6 visit to
Lebanon, told Berri that Syria is not against a UNIFIL and
LAF presence in Shebaa Farms. When Israel leaves Shebaa
Farms there would be a dialogue with Hizballah to disarm
because the purpose of the resistance is ""not to kill people,
but liberate land."" With Shebaa Farms liberated, there will
be no reason for the resistance.

New Position
------------

12. (C/NF) A/S Welch reiterated to Berri that the U.S.
position is that Israeli withdrawal has the potential to
begin when international forces and the LAF are deployed to
the south, assuming that the forces are deployed effectively
and with sufficient numbers and mandate. Berri asked what
the new resolution language will include. A/S Welch assured
him that the resolution will call for an Israeli withdrawal
upon the impementation of a new UNIFIL, rather than a
multinational force; and deployment of the Lebanese Army in
the south.

13. (C/NF) A/S Welch continued that the resolution will be
under Chapter 7. He advised Berri that Lebanon will not have
to request Chapter 7. The Ambassador added that Chapter 7 is
""applied for you and not against you."" Finally, there will
be an initial ceasefire. When the IDF withdraws this will
become a full ceasefire.

14. (C/NF) Berri feared that the confrontation on the ground
would continue. He cannot guarantee that Hizballah will not
fire on Israeli troops in Lebanon after a declared ceasefire.
""This could spark the entire conflict again"" he warned. A/S
Welch told him that he now has to make the choice between
what is ""bad and what is worse."" The Ambassador reiterated,
""no resolution will be very dangerous."" Berri concluded that
he would have to confer with Hizballah before making a
decision.

15. (U) A/S Welch did not have the opportunity to clear this
message.
FELTMAN

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