Cablegate: Syrian President's Speech Brushed Off by Official

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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHEG #5124 2281541
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161541Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0657
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CAIRO 005124

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EG SY LE
SUBJECT: SYRIAN PRESIDENT'S SPEECH BRUSHED OFF BY OFFICIAL
SOURCES, ENDORSED ON THE STREET

Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor William R. Stewart for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary. The vitriolic August 15 speech by Syrian
President Bashar Asad before the Syrian Journalists Union,
elicited a predictable mixed reaction from Egyptians, with
official sources largely brushing off its significance,
pro-government media sources lashing back, and the general
public largely in agreement with Asad's attacks against Arab
leaders, Israel, and the United States. One senior MFA
contact confided that the foreign minister had received a
detailed analysis of the speech August 16, but confirmed that
there had not been any formal public reaction from senior GOE
officials to the speech. Pro-government, and some
independent media, blasted the speech in August 16
editorials, mocking Asad for his bravado and insisting that
his words harmed Lebanon's interests. End summary.

2. (C) MFA Cabinet Staff Advisor on Lebanon and Syria, Nazih
El Negeiry told poloff August 16 that he had just completed
an analysis for the Minister of the August 15 speech by
Syrian President Bashar Asad to the Syrian Journalists Union.
Reviewing the gist of his analysis, Negeiry noted the
challenge involved in deciphering the high number of
"messages" that Asad had sent in his speech to Arab
neighbors, various Lebanese factions, Israel, and the U.S.
among others. Asad, he felt, was looking to "remind us" that
Syrian interests can not be ignored in
ongoing diplomatic wrangling over the future of Lebanon and
the region. "No one likes hearing such attacks and
criticism," but such behavior is neither new, nor unexpected,
Negeiry said. While Asad's words certainly registered on the
street where support for Hisbollah and its leader remains
particularly strong, Negeiry viewed the important thing as
the "realities on the ground" in Lebanon. Hizbollah is
weakened, the Lebanese armed forces are moving into the
southern border area of Lebanon, and UNIFIL is being
strengthened. Nevertheless, he warned against public
statements that could "humiliate" Hizbollah, since public
support in Egypt and elsewhere for the group was so palpable,
and since Hizbollah's disarmament had yet to take place.

3. (U) Egypt's August 16 pro-government daily Al Gumhouriya
responded to Asad's speech with disdain, warning Asad away
from a "strategy of escalation" that would damage Syria's
interests. The front-page unsigned editorial accused Asad of
"getting high on someone else's victory" and of
hypocritically seeking to take advantage of the destruction
in Lebanon. Furthermore, the article stated, "behind closed
doors, Syria says it does not support the resistance." Nor
did Syria take action to liberate the Golan or even defend
Lebanon from Israel earlier when Syrian troops were there.
Lebanese, the editorial asserts, believe Syria seeks to start
another civil war in Lebanon to pave the way for a Syrian
return. At least one editorialist in opposition paper Al
Wafd also criticized Asad for his "boastful statements" that
he asserts could lead to another civil war in Lebanon and to
angry reactions from Arab capitals.

4. (SBU) Echoing popular sentiment among rank-and-file
Egyptians, Muslim Brotherhood-dominated institutions such as
the Egyptian Bar Association and MB Parliament members have
been quick to endorse Asad's comments publicly and to repeat
the major accusations that are leveled in his speech. Such
comments are likely to find voice in Friday mosque sermons
and other Islamist channels of communication.
RICCIARDONE

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