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Cablegate: South China Q1 Economic Report

VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGZA #5667 2200135
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZUI RUEWCSE2141 2201228
R 080135Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
INFO CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS GUANGZHOU 025667

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN
STATE PASS USTR
USPACOM FOR FPA
TREASURY FOR OASIA/INA-CRANE
USDA FOR FAS/ITP AND FAS/FAA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ETRD EINV EAGR ELAB CH
SUBJECT: SOUTH CHINA Q1 ECONOMIC REPORT

REF: A) GUANGZHOU 4387

B) GUANGZHOU 6592

1. (U) SUMMARY: THIS REPORT REVIEWS THE 2006 FIRST QUARTER
ECONOMIC AND TRADE PERFORMANCE FOR SOUTH CHINA. ECONOMIC
INDICATORS FOR GUANGDONG, FUJIAN, AND HAINAN PROVINCES AS
WELL AS FOR THE GUANGXI ZHUANG AUTONOMOUS REGION SHOW
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH. EACH PROVINCE OR REGION RECORDED DOUBLE-
DIGIT GDP GROWTH, RAPID INCREASES IN EXPORTS, AND A LEAP IN
FIXED ASSET INVESTMENTS. SOUTH CHINA'S ECONOMY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF COOLING. END SUMMARY.

NOTE ON CURRENCY CONVERSIONS AND STATISTICS
-------------------------------------------

2. (U) ALL CURRENCY CONVERSIONS IN THIS REPORT ARE MADE AT
THE AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE OF USD 1 = RMB 8.0484. UNLESS
OTHERWISE NOTED, PERCENTAGE GROWTH FIGURES ARE OVER THE SAME
PERIOD OF 2005. READERS SHOULD BEAR IN MIND THAT THE
MAJORITY OF STATISTICS PROVIDED IN THIS REPORT ARE FROM
CHINESE GOVERNMENT SOURCES. AS SUCH, THEY SHOULD BE TAKEN
WITH THE PROVERBIAL GRAIN OF SALT. THEY ARE OF LIMITED
RELIABILITY, AND ARE BEST USED IN COMPARISON TO OTHER TIME
PERIODS. EVEN THEN, THE STATISTICS MAY BE OF LIMITED
ACCURACY, SINCE THE METHODOLOGIES USED TO CALCULATE THE
STATISTICS OFTEN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. IN THE PAST,
AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN LOATH TO EXPLAIN ANY IRREGULARITIES OR
CHANGES.

GUANGDONG
---------

3. (U) IN THE FIRST QUARTER, THE PROVINCIAL ECONOMY SHOWED
STEADY GROWTH, WITH A GDP OF RMB 520.641 BILLION (USD 64.69
BILLION), UP 13.7%, 1.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR, AND 3.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE. THE ADDED VALUE OF THE PRIMARY
SECTOR WAS RMB 21.541 BILLION (USD 2.68 BILLION), UP 4.2%;
THE SECONDARY SECTOR RMB 250.554 BILLION (USD 31.13
BILLION), UP 14.7%; THE TERTIARY SECTOR RMB 248.546 BILLION
(USD 30.88 BILLION), UP 13.5%.

4. (U) THE PROVINCE'S FIXED ASSET INVESTMENTS IN THE FIRST
QUARTER TOTALED RMB 123.366 BILLION (USD 15.33 BILLION), UP
19.2%, OR 4.2 PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD
OF LAST YEAR. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS ACCOUNTED FOR RMB
31.864 BILLION (USD 3.96 BILLION), UP 21.3%, OR 17.2
PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR.
HOUSING SALES IN THE FIRST QUARTER REACHED 9.6566 MILLION
SQUARE METERS, WORTH RMB 45.392 BILLION (USD 5.64 BILLION),
UP 13.7% AND 18.6% RESPECTIVELY.

5. (U) EXPORTS GREW RAPIDLY IN THE FIRST QUARTER. THE TOTAL
IMPORT/EXPORT VOLUME REACHED USD 105.77 BILLION, AN INCREASE
OF 27.4%. EXPORTS TOTALED USD 58.25 BILLION, UP 28.7%, OR
6.9 PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST
YEAR. IMPORTS TOTALED USD 47.52 BILLION, UP 25.8%, OR 19.2
PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR.
THE TRADE SURPLUS INCREASED BY 43.8%, REACHING USD 10.73
BILLION.

6. (U) RESIDENTS' INCOME CONTINUED TO INCREASE. IN THE
FIRST QUARTER, URBAN RESIDENTS' PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
REACHED RMB 4,908.89 (USD 609.92), UP 10.0%; RURAL
RESIDENTS' RMB 1,609.40 (USD 199.97), UP 9.8%.

7. (U) OIL PRICES PUSHED UP TRANSPORTATION AND CARGO
DELIVERY SERVICE COSTS. THE PRICE OF RICE IS EXPECTED TO
RISE IN THE SECOND QUARTER. THE IMPORT DUTIES IMPOSED BY
THE EU ON SHOES AND TVS MAY IMPACT THE PROVINCES EXPORTS.
IT WAS REPORTED THAT CONTRACTED FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
DECREASED BY 16.5%.

GUANGXI
-------

8. (U) IN THE FIRST QUARTER, GUANGXIS GDP REACHED RMB 96.53
BILLION (USD 11.99 BILLION), UP 13.2%, THE HIGHEST GROWTH
SINCE 1998.


9. (U) FIXED ASSET INVESTMENTS AMOUNTED TO RMB 31.325
BILLION (USD 3.89 BILLION), UP 34.7%, OR 8.1 PERCENTAGE
POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR. AMONG
FIXED ASSET INVESTMENTS, RMB 26.125 BILLION (USD 3.25
BILLION) WENT TO URBAN AREAS, UP 37.9% FROM THE SAME PERIOD
OF LAST YEAR. RMB 458 MILLION (USD 56.91 MILLION) WAS
INVESTED IN THE PRIMARY SECTOR, RMB 10.233 BILLION (USD 1.27
BILLION) IN THE SECONDARY SECTOR, AND RMB 15.434 BILLION
(USD 1.92 BILLION) INTO THE TERTIARY SECTOR, UP 40.2%, 50.2%
AND 30.7% RESPECTIVELY. INVESTMENTS IN REAL ESTATE
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTED TO RMB 5.247 BILLION (USD 651.93
MILLION), UP 43% FROM THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR. HOUSING
PRICES REMAINED STABLE, WITH AN AVERAGE PRICE OF RMB 2,086
(USD 259.18) PER SQUARE METER, ROUGHLY THE SAME LEVEL AS
LAST YEAR.

10. (U) RETAIL SALES IN THE FIRST QUARTER REACHED RMB 38.835
BILLION (USD 4.83 BILLION), UP 13.1%, THE HIGHEST GROWTH
SINCE 1997. RMB 15.987 BILLION (USD 1.99 BILLION) OF THESE
SALES TOOK PLACE IN RURAL AREAS.

11. (U) THE VOLUME OF FOREIGN TRADE IN THE FIRST QUARTER
TOTALED USD 1.388 BILLION, UP 32.6%. EXPORTS GREW 21.5% TO
REACH USD 731 MILLION. ASEAN, THE EU, THE U.S., HONG KONG
AND JAPAN WERE THE FIVE BIGGEST MARKETS FOR GUANGXI'S
EXPORTS. PRIVATE COMPANIES WERE THE MAJOR EXPORTERS.

12. (U) URBAN RESIDENTS PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
REACHED RMB 2,870.1 (USD 356.61), UP 9.4%. RURAL RESIDENTS'
PER CAPITA INCOME GREW 18% TO REACH RMB 868 (USD 107.85),
ALSO THE HIGHEST GROWTH SINCE 1997. THE RAPID RISE IN SUGAR
CANE PRICES AND INCREASED SALES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
HELPED RURAL RESIDENTS' INCOME GROW.

FUJIAN
------

13. (U) IN THE FIRST QUARTER, FUJIAN'S GDP REACHED RMB
134.844 BILLION (USD 16.75 BILLION), UP 12.7%, OR 2.2
PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR.
THE ADDED VALUE OF THE PRIMARY, SECONDARY AND TERTIARY
SECTORS WERE RMB 13.522 BILLION (USD 1.68 BILLION), RMB
68.832 BILLION (USD 8.55 BILLION) AND RMB 52.49 BILLION (USD
6.52 BILLION), UP 3.6%, 15.4% AND 12.0% RESPECTIVELY.

14. (U) THE THREE PILLAR INDUSTRIES - THE ELECTRONIC,
MACHINERY AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES - HAD A GROSS
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT OF RMB 87.482 BILLION (USD 10.87 BILLION),
UP 22.3%.

15. (U) FIXED ASSET INVESTMENTS AMOUNTED TO RMB 48.23
BILLION (USD 5.99 BILLION), UP 42.2%, OR 26.2 PERCENTAGE
POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR. URBAN
REGIONS ACCOUNTED FOR RMB 42.29 BILLION (USD 5.25 BILLION)
OF THESE INVESTMENTS, UP 43.8%, WHILE RURAL REGIONS
ACCOUNTED FOR RMB 5.94 BILLION (USD 738.03 MILLION), UP
31.9%.

16. (U) RETAIL SALES TOTALED RMB 67.189 BILLION (USD 8.35
BILLION), UP 15.3%. THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT STATED THAT
THE INCREASED INCOME OF RESIDENTS WAS THE REASON BEHIND THE
RISE IN CONSUMPTION.

17. (U) THE PROVINCE'S TOTAL FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME IN THE
FIRST QUARTER REACHED USD 13.566 BILLION, UP 15.7%. EXPORTS
ACCOUNTED FOR USD 8.593 BILLION, AND IMPORTS ACCOUNTED FOR
USD 4.974 BILLION, UP 17.2% AND 13.2% RESPECTIVELY,
RESULTING IN A TRADE SURPLUS OF USD 3.619 BILLION. EXPORTS
OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISES REACHED USD 2.093 BILLION, UP 53.9%,
ACCOUNTING FOR 24.4% OF THE PROVINCES TOTAL EXPORTS. THE
FIVE BIGGEST EXPORT MARKETS, NAMELY THE U.S., JAPAN, THE EU,
HONG KONG AND ASEAN, TOOK USD 6.48 BILLION, OR 75.4% OF
FUJIANS EXPORTS. NEW MARKETS FOR FUJIANS EXPORTS, SUCH AS
SWITZERLAND, RUSSIA, INDIA, ROMANIA, AND BRAZIL TOOK AN
INCREASING SHARE OF THE PROVINCE'S EXPORTS.

18. (U) IN A PRICE-STABLE MARKET, FUJIAN RESIDENTS' INCOME
SAW DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH, WITH URBAN RESIDENTS EARNING AN

AVERAGE OF RMB 4,122.62 (USD 512.23) AND RURAL RESIDENTS RMB
1,315.12 (USD 163.40) IN THE FIRST QUARTER.

HAINAN
------

19. (U) IN THE FIRST QUARTER, HAINAN'S GDP REACHED RMB
21.671 BILLION (USD 2.69 BILLION), UP 11.7%, OR 3.2
PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR.
THE ADDED VALUE OF THE PRIMARY, SECONDARY AND TERTIARY
SECTORS WAS RMB 6.604 BILLION (USD 820.54 MILLION), RMB
5.447 (USD 676.78 MILLION) AND RMB 9.62 (USD 1.20 BILLION)
RESPECTIVELY, UP 8.5%, 17.4% AND 10.9%.

20. (U) FIXED ASSET INVESTMENTS TOTALED RMB 6.463 BILLION
(USD 803.02 MILLION), UP 19.5%. URBAN REGIONS CLAIMED RMB
6.136 BILLION (USD 762.39 MILLION) OF THESE INVESTMENTS,
WHILE RURAL REGIONS RMB 328 MILLION (USD 40.75 MILLION), UP
19.5% AND 20.7% RESPECTIVELY. IN THE URBAN AREAS, RMB 89
MILLION (USD 11.06 MILLION) WAS INVESTED IN THE PRIMARY
SECTOR, DOWN 28.0%; RMB 2.588 BILLION (USD 321.55 MILLION)
IN THE SECONDARY SECTOR, UP 8.6%; AND RMB 3.459 BILLION (USD
429.77 MILLION) IN THE TERTIARY SECTOR, UP 31.6%.

21 (U) RETAIL SALES TOTALED RMB 7.538 BILLION (USD 936.58
MILLION), UP 13.7%. RETAIL SALES IN URBAN REGIONS WERE RMB
5.999 BILLION (USD 745.36 MILLION) AND RMB 1.539 BILLION
(USD 191.22 MILLION) IN RURAL AREAS, UP 14.4% AND 10.8%
RESPECTIVELY.

22. (U) RESIDENTS INCOME CONTINUED TO GROW. THE PER CAPITA
DISPOSABLE INCOME OF URBAN RESIDENTS REACHED RMB 2,924 (USD
366.30) AND RURAL RESIDENTS RMB 947 (USD 117.66), UP 17.9%
AND 7.7% RESPECTIVELY.

23. (U) THE PROVINCE'S FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME REACHED USD
651.39 MILLION, UP 18.86%. EXPORTS WERE VALUED AT USD
312.75 MILLION, WHILE IMPORTS WERE VALUED AT USD 338.64
MILLION, UP 54.4% AND DOWN 2% RESPECTIVELY. HAINAN'S
EXPORTS TO THE U.S. REACHED USD 60.65 MILLION, UP 151.9%,
AND TO JAPAN USD 25.53 MILLION, UP 4.2%. GROWTH AMONG
HAINAN'S EXPORTED PRODUCTS INCLUDED MACHINERY (USD 102.73
MILLION), UP 259%; TEXTILES (USD 39.34 MILLION), UP 3.91%;
AQUATIC PRODUCTS (USD 30.32 MILLION), UP 66.23%; AND
FURNITURE (USD 12.39 MILLION), UP 6.99%.

MARTIN

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