Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 08/31/06

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 004994

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/31/06

INDEX:

(1) LDP presidential election 2006: Tanigaki distinct from Abe, Aso
on use of collective self-defense right

(2) Study of Shinzo Abe (Part 3): Efforts underway to revise Koizumi
policy course pursuing competitive principles

(3) Personal network of Shinzo Abe (Part 3): Persons who have gone
through a lot support the "prince"

(4) Security policy a top priority for the next administration

(5) New security era (Section 11)-Striking enemy bases (Part 1):
Notion within the bounds of self-defense rights; Enemy base strike
differing from US preemptive strike

ARTICLES:

(1) LDP presidential election 2006: Tanigaki distinct from Abe, Aso
on use of collective self-defense right

MAINICHI (Page 2) (Abridged)
August 30, 2006

Whether or not to change the government's interpretation of the
Constitution to allow Japan to exercise the right of collective
self-defense has emerged as a campaign issue in the ongoing Liberal
Democratic Party presidential race. Finance Minister Sadakazu
Tanigaki, an advocate of constitutional amendment, criticized Chief
Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, who simply wants to alter the
government's interpretation. Foreign Minister Taro Aso has also
begun siding with Abe, reversing his previous call for
constitutional revision. Abe's standpoint has drawn a backlash from
the New Komeito, the LDP's cautious coalition partner.

The right of collective self-defense is the right of any state to
jointly prevent by force an attack on a foreign state with which it
has close relations, even in the event that the former state has not
itself been subjected to such an attack.

According to the government's interpretation of Article 9 of the
Constitution, Japan has the inherent right of collective
self-defense but is not allowed to exercise it under the current
provisions of the Constitution.

Abe has posed a question about the government's interpretation. His
recent book Toward a Beautiful Country reads:

"Even if US troops who are mobilized to deal with a contingency in
areas surrounding Japan were attacked on high seas by an enemy, the
Self-Defense Force would have to leave the scene. How long would the
international community tolerate Japan's logic that it has the right
to collective self-defense but cannot exercise it?"

On Aug. 22, Abe announced a plan to consider altering the
government's interpretation of the Constitution regarding the
defense of Japan.

Aso used to repeatedly underscore the need to amend the Constitution
instead of modifying its interpretation of it. But he now sides with
Abe. He said on an NHK program on Aug. 27: "Changing the
government's interpretation (to allow the country to exercise the

TOKYO 00004994 002 OF 009

right) is more pragmatic." Aso's about-face may be interpreted as
revealing his intention to become prime minister after Abe.

In contrast, Tanigaki is sticking to constitutional revision. He
apparently intends to make a clear distinction with Abe and Aso over
this issue.

A New Komeito executive predicted: "If Mr. Abe tries to steamroller
his view, the coalition arrangement with the LDP will collapse."

(2) Study of Shinzo Abe (Part 3): Efforts underway to revise Koizumi
policy course pursuing competitive principles

ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged)
April 31, 2006

On the night of July 26, dozens of business leaders, including
Central Japan Railway Company Chairman Kasai and Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries Chairman Nishioka, dined with Chief Cabinet Secretary
Shinzo Abe at a Japanese restaurant in Tokyo. State Minister in
Charge of Economic and Fiscal Policy also attended the meeting.

The business leaders in the meeting were members of the Shiki no Kai
(Four Seasons Association) composed of executives from more than 20
leading firms mainly in heavy industries, like Tokyo Electric Power,
Japan Air Lines, Toyota Motor, and Fuji Photo Film. Most members
were in their 60s, far older than Abe. Abe naturally took the role
of the listener. He has given priority particularly to its
meetings.

Just before the meeting, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda
had revealed his intention not to run in the Liberal Democratic
Party presidential election. Yosano said in the meeting: "Mr. Abe
surfaced as the leading candidate in a moment. I would like to
support him." The participants took the remarks as expressing his
support for Abe.

After Yosano was defeated in the House of Representatives election
in 2000, the Shiki no Kai was inaugurated to encourage him. Yosano
brought Abe to a meeting of the Shiki no Kai with him, introducing
Abe as "a young capable lawmaker." Abe was just appointed as deputy
chief cabinet secretary.

Kasai, a key member of the association, is an advocate of
constitutional revision. Nishioka played a central role when the
Japan Business Federation (Nihon Keidanren) proposed a review of the
nation's three principles on arms exports in 2004. Their arguments
are close to Abe's.

On economic policy, many aides to Abe suggest that he should
"entrust economic policy into the hands of reliable experts." In his
book titled: Toward A Beautiful Country, Abe used most pages for
foreign, defense, and education policies, with only less than one
fifth devoted to the economic area, including social security.

Yosano is one of the "reliable experts" for Abe. The government's
annual economic and fiscal policy guidelines adopted at a cabinet
meeting this July contained this expression: "a 21st century-type
mild, affluent Japanese society with a combination of economic
growth and safety/stability."

A medium-ranking official of the Ministry of Health, Labor and
Welfare who engaged in drawing up the policy guidelines gave this

TOKYO 00004994 003 OF 009

explanation: "In an effort to present Mr. Abe's policy identity, he
and Mr. Yosano decided to use the word 'mild'." He added: "The
inclusion of the word was intended to underscore that only
competitive policy and economic principles are not enough in
society."

LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Hidenao Nakagawa also supported
Abe in working out measures to cut spending to be included in the
policy guidelines. Yosano and Nakagawa launched the Conference on
Fiscal and Economic Reforms, a council of the government and the
ruling parties, appointing Abe as moderator. The stage is gradually
being set for "the Abe administration."

Assistant Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Atsuo Saka instructed
director generals from relevant government agencies in early March
to map out specific second-chance measures in response to a proposal
by Abe.

On March 23, Abe officially announced in a press briefing that the
government would set up the Second Chance Promotion Council. One
week after that, the council held its first meeting with the
participation of the bureau directors to whom Saka had given
instructions.

Saka used to be a Finance Ministry official. From just after the
inauguration of the Koizumi administration, he undertook the task of
drawing up the government's annual economic and fiscal policy
guidelines. But he was at odds with then State Minister in Charge of
Economic and Fiscal Policy Takenaka, who hated the influence of the
Finance Ministry. In 2005 he became vice president at the
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Finance Corporation. This
January, however, he assumed the present post designed to help Abe,
in response to a request from the Kantei.

Abe has never assumed a portfolio in any influential government
agency, so he has no extensive personnel ties in Kasumigaseki
government office area. The personnel networks held by Saka are
valuable assets for Abe. In mid-May, Abe invited Saka and members of
the Second Chance Promotion Council for dinner. A senior official of
the Cabinet Secretariat categorically said: "Abe's new brain trust
advisors are not from the private sector but are Kasumigaseki
officials."

In the private sector, there is puzzlement at Abe, who is trying to
play up his own policy identity while deepening his cooperation with
bureaucrats.

At the main conference hall in the Kantei on Aug. 25, Abe asked
eight representatives from the banking industry, including Japanese
Bankers Association Chairman Nobuo Kuroyanagi, to offer financial
aid for a second-chance program.

One participant said: "Financing it will involve risk, so government
subsidies will be necessary." Many senior executives at leading
banks severely evaluate the second-challenge project, one remarking:
"This kind of project should have come several years ago, when
credit crunch was a serious problem. Abe intends to play this card
to the gallery."

Abe's true colors are reflected in recent moves to grope for ways to
revise the Koizumi policy course. When a senior member of the
Cabinet Office suggested in late June that the office would discuss
details about a new body to replace the Regulatory Reform and

TOKYO 00004994 004 OF 009

Privatization Promotion Council before it expires at the end of this
fiscal year, Abe reportedly grumbled: "Is it still willing to
continue the task?"

Whenever he delivers speeches, Abe always cites the importance of
public works projects. Abe was quoted as saying to his brain trust
advisor who used to be a bureaucrat: "Constructing a San'in
expressway is necessary;" and "Extending Shinkansen bullet train
lines will turn to be Investment for the future and will contribute
to remarkably developing local districts."

Abe also told the brain trust: "Should a large supermarket be
opened, local shopping districts will dry up, and festivals will
also fade out. That is the current state of local areas."

He implied that if priority were given only to efficiency and
competition principles, local communities would be destroyed.

In the Aug. 29 edition, the US newspaper Wall Street Journal noted:
"Mr. Abe will not be the second coming of Mr. Koizumi," defining him
as "a politician giving priority to agreement." The newspaper also
pointed out: "He has indicated a plan to redistribute income to
local governments again," adding: "Closed-door politics might begin
to be carried out, and the economy might become stalled in Japan
again."

(3) Personal network of Shinzo Abe (Part 3): Persons who have gone
through a lot support the "prince"

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Slightly abridged)
August 31, 2006

Around 1985 when Japan was in the throes of its bubble economy,
Yoshiyuki Inoue, 43, incumbent policy secretary to Chief Cabinet
Secretary Shinzo Abe, worked at the now defunct Japan National

SIPDIS
Railways (JNR) as an engine driver for express trains with sleeping
berths -- "Asakaze" and "Hayabusa" -- between Tokyo and Kyushu.

Inoue was born into a poor family in Odawara City, Kanagawa
Prefecture. He lived with his parents and an older sister in
city-provided housing. He entered JNR at the age of 18. While
working night shifts, he graduated from the correspondence course of
a university.

With the privatization of JNR in 1987, Inoue found a job in the
former Prime Minister's Office in 1988. In January 2000 he became an
administrative secretary to then Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary
Fukushiro Nukaga in the cabinet of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. He
them met then Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe in the government
of Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, which was launched following the
death of Obuchi. He worked on the issue of abductions of Japanese
nationals by North Koreans, in which the public had little interest
at that time. He gained Abe's confidence because of his hard work.
He said that he learned that protecting the lives and properties of
the people was his political responsibility.

After Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited Pyongyang in
September 2002, Inoue led the work of drafting a bill to support
victims kidnapped by North Korea for repatriated abductees. He then
worked at the office of communication coordination on abduction
issue in the Cabinet Secretariat. He returned to the Prime
Minister's Official Residence and became a policy secretary at the
request of Abe who became chief cabinet secretary in late October

TOKYO 00004994 005 OF 009

last year.

Inoue is regarded as one of the most likely candidates to become the
prime ministerial secretary (for political affairs) when Abe becomes
prime minister. In the past, a pattern of veteran secretaries like
Isao Iijima, who has served for nearly 30 years as a secretary to
Koizumi, assumed the prime ministerial secretary post. If Inoue is
picked, it will be an unprecedented case.

Abe, who has a grandfather and granduncle who each served as prime
minister, has the tendency of trusting and treating preferentially
persons like Inoue who have gone through a lot of hardship.
Yoshihide Suga, 57, senior vice minister for internal affairs and
communications, is one of them. He formed the Nonpartisan
Parliamentary League to Support a Second Chance, and made efforts to
have junior and mid-level LDP lawmakers support Abe (in the upcoming
party leadership race).

Suga, born into a farm family in Akita Prefecture, came to Tokyo in
1966 and worked in a small factory. After working at another
company, he became a secretary to former trade minister Hikosaburo
Okonogi. He was then elected to the House of Representatives in
1996.

Suga first belonged to the Obuchi faction (present Tsushima
faction). He supported then Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiroku
Kajiyama, who ran in the 1998 LDP presidency in revelation against
then Foreign Minister Obuchi. He bolted the Obuchi faction along
with Kajiyama and former international trade and industry minister
Shinji Sato. He chaired the LDP simulation team on sanctions against
North Korea. He obtained Abe's confidence by coming up with a
sanction plan on his own.

Suga and Inoue got together at a Tokyo hotel on the night of Aug. 8.
The two discussed the right timing for Abe to announce his candidacy
for the presidency, campaign pledges, and arrangements for an Abe
government. The two are putting together the shape of a new
government while supporting the "prince."

(4) Security policy a top priority for the next administration

SANKEI (Page 9) (Abridged)
August 31, 2006

By Satoshi Morimoto, Professor and Director, Institute of World
Studies, Takushoku University

Collecting external intelligence vital

Security is a major challenge for Japan. The next administration
should give top priority to security policy. The Koizumi
administration has enacted many laws and agreements on security.
Their implementation requires improvements in the system.

The next administration is urged to establish a national interest
committee in the Diet and a national security council in the cabinet
to let them plan and deliberate on security policy from a
perspective of national interests.

It is also essential to establish an external intelligence agency
and a state secrets protection law. An existing Diet resolution must
also be revised in order to improve the resolution of the sensors of
information gathering satellites.

TOKYO 00004994 006 OF 009

The Antiterrorism Special Measures Law must be extended during the
next extraordinary Diet session in order to keep the Maritime
Self-Defense Force's Indian Ocean mission alive, adding to its
mission such duties as warning, monitoring, and providing
intelligence. The next administration is also advised to enact US
military assistance promotion legislation to allow Japan to
financially assist in the planned Guam relocation and building a
facility to take over Futenma Air Station functions.

Japan is urged to consider building an SDF base in Guam, as well.
Maintaining the Japan-US alliance is the top priority for Japan's
security, and US force regalement must be realized at all costs.
This may entail a review of the National Defense Program Guideline,
another challenge.

The approach of enacting special laws on SDF overseas missions has
reached its limit. Japan cannot send the SDF on overseas missions
swiftly without a permanent law.

Japan should also conclude an agreement with the United States to
extend cooperation effectively, as was demonstrated in the wake of
the 2004 Indonesian tsunami disaster. That should be followed by
guidelines on Japan-US cooperation to respond to natural disasters
in the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan must also be prepared for Pyongyang's possible retaliation
against Tokyo's diplomatic initiative behind the UN Security
Council's adoption of a resolution condemning North Korea's missile
launches and financial sanctions.

Japan, US must re-discuss role sharing

Defending US bases in Japan used to be Japan's responsibility. The
United States has been pushing ahead with its plan to deploy Aegis
vessels and Patriot missiles in Japan to ensure security of its
bases here. Japan and the United States must re-discuss role sharing
regarding security in Japanese territories.

The Japan Coast Guard is responsible for maritime territorial
security, police forces for ground security, and the Ground
Self-Defense Force for the security of areas surrounding US bases in
Japan. The law needs to be improved to allow the GSDF to guard
coastlines and seaside nuclear power plants.

The government has taken steps to give additional duties and roles
to the SDF to let them conduct wide-ranging international
cooperation activities on one hand and to reduce the number of
personnel and equipment on the other. Such steps are unreasonable.
They may take a toll on disaster relief, as well.

Japan and the US have also been frontloading missile defense since
the test-launches of ballistic missiles by North Korean on July 5.
It is important to operate the Japan-US missile defense system under
a consistent chain of command.

Japan must possess a sufficient enemy-base strike capability. There
is every reason for Japan to equip support fighters with
air-to-surface missiles and vessels with ship-to-surface missiles.
Japan also must consider developing cruise missiles.

Japan must be allowed to exercise the right of collective
self-defense

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For maintaining maritime security, Japan must patrol and conduct
warning and surveillance activities in cooperation with other Asian
nations. Japan must also resolve the issue of the right of
collective self-defense and actively join multinational efforts in
the region. A transfer of the command of US Forces South Korea may
prompt the US to give up defending that country. For Japan's
security, it is essential to realize defense cooperation among
Japan, the United States, and South Korea.

Constitutional revision is essential for the country's security
policy. It is desirable to enact national referendum legislation
first, then revise paragraphs one and two of Article 9 to stipulate
the possession of the national defense military that can exercise
the self-defense right to defend the nation and its people, and to
establish a basic security law and a basic international cooperation
law to ensure effectiveness.

(5) New security era (Section 11)-Striking enemy bases (Part 1):
Notion within the bounds of self-defense rights; Enemy base strike
differing from US preemptive strike

SANKEI (Pages 1&5) (Full)
August 29, 2006

North Korea's firing of ballistic missiles (on July 5, 2006) has
reignited controversy in Japan over the option of striking enemy
bases or tekikichi kogeki in Japanese-a wording peculiar to Japan
for its exclusively defense-oriented policy or defense-only posture.
In terms of international commonsense, the notion of this enemy base
strike, as a matter of fact, is tantamount to a "preemptive attack,"
which constitutes the right of self-defense vested in sovereign
states under international law. It is quite different from the US
Bush administration's preemptive attack that can be called a
"preventive attack," which is not allowed under international law.
China and South Korea are decrying Japan for its arguments over this
enemy base strike. For one thing, it is mixed up in its terms. The
Sankei Shimbun verifies the enemy base strike arguments.

In March 2003, the United States made a 'preemptive attack' on Iraq.
This was later regarded as a preventive attack, giving rise to
controversy not only in the United States but also in the
international community. How did the Bush administration build its
logic of preemptive attack while being unable to come up with any
hard evidence of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in the hands of
Iraq?

In the spring of 2002, US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld-one of those
who were adamant on the necessity of attacking Iraq-told Bob
Woodward, a well-known reporter for the Washington Post, that
terrorist attacks cannot be prevented. The Pentagon chief was quoted
in Woodward's book, Plan of Attack, as saying terrorists do not
hesitate to do anything at any time. "That's why," Rumsfeld says in
the book, "we must strike first." It was several months before the
United States announced the so-called Bush doctrine with the option
of striking first in its war on terror.

There was a friend standing behind Rumsfeld. This friend told
Rumsfeld, "Thomas Moore-who was a British philosopher in the 16th
century-also argued about preemptive attack in his book, Utopia."
Preemptive attack studied by Rumsfeld and others is not a
far-fetched notion but is an old and new idea.

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Meanwhile, US Vice President Cheney stressed that the danger of
doing nothing without making an attack is greater than the danger of
what the United States would sustain from its preemptive attack. On
Sept. 18, 2002, Rumsfeld stated before the US House of
Representatives Armed Services Committee that the United States does
not need perfect evidence. As is well known, Rumsfeld distanced
himself from US Secretary of State Powell, who was cautious about
attacking Iraq. The two were wide apart from each other, with the
White House and the Pentagon inclining to carry out a preemptive
attack on Iraq. Woodward depicts how Powell was in those days, as
follows: "He was growing irritated at discussing the use of armed
force based on a mere theory, although there's no imminent threat to
the United States."

Japan, faced with North Korea's threat, needs to discuss enemy base
strike

In an international military sense, a preemptive attack is defined
as an attack to be waged against an enemy because there is
smoking-gun evidence that tells that enemy's imminent offensive. In
the meantime, a preventive attack is defined as an attack to be made
against someone who is not posing an imminent threat but could bring
about an unacceptable threat in the future before that threat
becomes apparent.

The Bush administration's attack on Iraq was regarded as a
preventive attack as the Iraq attack was carried out with the Bush
administration remaining unable to prove the existence of WMDs in
Iraq and an imminent threat along with it.

This point decisively differs from the notion of a preemptive attack
and also from Japan's enemy base strike argument. Furthermore, an
enemy base strike is to be carried out "at a time when the enemy has
set about an impending incursion on Japan," according to former
Defense Agency Director General Shigeru Ishiba's account in his
parliamentary reply. This enemy base strike is even more strictly
defined than a preemptive attack in an international military sense.
However, there are arguments about which stage should be deemed to
be the point of time the enemy set about such an impending incursion
on Japan.

For instance, if you fire a gun at someone who only has a gun, that
is a preventive attack. If you fire first at someone who is training
his gun on you, that is a preemptive attack. In the case of striking
an enemy base, that would be firing someone who is pointing his gun
at you with his trigger finger on.

Way back in the middle of the 18th century, the Seven-Year War broke
out to involve countries in Europe. We can trace the template of
preemptive attacks back to that war. Prussian King Friedrich first
waged an attack on Sachsen. However, the Pact of Paris, a
non-belligerency convention concluded after World War I, prohibited
preemptive attacks. In those days, however, no one must have
imagined what we see today with the advent of WMDs, the spread of
international terrorism, and the development of missile
technologies.

"In the case of wars in those pastoral days, they could absorb the
first strike and they could fight back," says Akira Kato, who was a
researcher at the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS), a
think-tank of the Defense Agency, and is now a professor of
international political science at the international faculty of
Obirin University. "But," Kato added, "it's too late (to

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counterattack) after sustaining the first strike in the nuclear
age."

The Bush administration launched a preemptive attack that can be
called a preventive attack. That is also because the Bush
administration-touched off by the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks
in the United States on its nerve centers-was seriously concerned
about the case where America comes under the first attack from
international terrorists with WMDs in their hands.

In April 1996, Japan and the United States issued a bilateral joint
security declaration, which was based on a report written by Harvard
University Professor Joseph Nye when he was a Pentagon official. In
his article carried in the Washington Post dated March 14, 2003, Nye
noted the world's entry into the age of "war privatization" with
WMDs in the hands of terrorist groups, foreboding that its potential
threat would drastically change civilized societies. Nye also
defended the Bush administration for its raising of problems,
including not only a preemptive attack against an imminent threat
but also a preventive attack.

On Oct. 2, 2003, Russia unveiled its new military doctrine for the
option of striking first with the use of nuclear arms. In March this
year, US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense McCormick reported to the
US Congress that China has raised the accuracy of its ballistic
missiles in an aim to improve its preemptive strike capability. Both
China and Russia do not rule out the possibility of carrying out
preventive attacks in the name of preemptive attacks on the grounds
of an imminent threat.

"It's up to the country concerned to judge whether its attack on
another country is preventive or preemptive," Kato says. "That's an
extremely subjective question," he added. In point of fact, it is
hard to tell a preemptive attack from a preventive attack in the age
of state-of-the-art military technologies and international
terrorism.

Meanwhile, North Korea is reportedly preparing an underground
nuclear test. Faced with the threat of North Korea's potential
nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles delivering nuclear warheads,
Japan will now need to deepen discussions on the advisability of
striking enemy bases.

DONOVAN

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