Cablegate: Don Brash Not Down for the Count - Yet

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R 141900Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
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INFO RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000725

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NOFORN

STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: DON BRASH NOT DOWN FOR THE COUNT - YET

REF A WELLINGTON 721 B WELLINGTON 690

Summary
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1. (C) National Party MPs insist they will stand by embattled leader
Don Brash amidst controversy over his private life (REF A) and will
continue to focus on the party's political agenda. Despite the
party's bravado, a prominent conservative political analyst believes
that Brash's leadership has been undermined. One reason the Nats may
be propping up Brash is that with no consensus on an alternative, a
fractious leadership contest could reverse the party's recent gains
in the polls. National seems to be banking that Labour's tactic of
shifting attention away from its own scandals by alluding to Brash's
private problems will prove counter-productive with fair-minded Kiwi
voters. But if Labour succeeds in raising questions about Brash's
credibility they could force National's hand. End Summary.

Reaction within National
------------------------

2. (C) National's Deputy Director of Research tells us that the
recent news about Brash's affair caused some initial panic among
party ranks, especially junior members. Senior MPs quickly restored
calm. National MP Chris Finlayson tells us the party is maintaining a
'business as usual' mentality. However, one party staffer told us
some in National are concerned that Brash's alleged recidivist
infidelity (his current marriage is a result of a previous
extra-marital affair) could cost the party support, especially among
women voters. (National is already relatively unpopular among women)

3. (SBU) Although PM Clark has declined to comment on the matter, the
unveiling of Brash's affair seems to be part of Labour's efforts to
deflect attention from National's claims that the Government
illegally used taxpayer money in its reelection campaign (reftel).
Days before the story broke, senior Labour MP Trevor Mallard had
responded in Parliament to incessant National attacks on Labour's
integrity and honesty by publicly alluding to Brash's alleged
indiscretions.

4. (C) National MPs are now trying to put the ball back in the
Government's court by pointing out that Labour is breaking an
unwritten convention in New Zealand politics: do not delve into the
private lives of Parliamentarians. Welfare spokeswoman Judith
Collins tearfully expressed her rage at the breach of protocol during
a radio interview earlier today. National Party insiders tell us
Brash has also e-mailed his MPs instructing them not address or react
to any questions or insinuations regarding his private life.

Too soon to talk of Brash's demise as leader?
---------------------------------------------

5. (SBU) Despite the Nats' public show of unity, Barry Gustafson, an
analyst regarded as the chief historian of the National Party, told
the media that Brash's grip on his party's leadership is seriously
weakened because his strongest attribute - integrity - is now in
question. (This is the second time Brash's credibility has been put
at risk, as he was earlier forced to admit that despite his denials
he had met with Christian Breathren funders of his campaign.) The
media has reported that backbencher Brian Connell had during a caucus
meeting questioned Brash's fitness for office. Some commentators
speculate that Brash might fall on his sword and resign. However,
Finlayson tells us Brash will try and work through the crisis. Deputy
Leader Gerry Brownlee has publicly insisted this matter will not
affect the party's leadership.

No heir apparent, but contenders aplenty
----------------------------------------

6. (SBU) Many National MPs have been concerned for months that Brash
has been relatively ineffective in fighting the Government. Brash's
resignation could move him gracefully out of the way and shut down
Labour's efforts to draw attention to his affair. So why are the MPs
remaining loyal? One reason is gratitude: many credit Brash for
restoring the party's popularity after its nadir in 2002. The other
is practicality: Brash has no clear successors. The last thing the
party wants is division within its ranks, especially at a time when
National is polling strongly and has the Government on the back foot
over allegations of dishonesty. Any split in the party over who
should become the next leader would put these achievements at risk.

7. (SBU) There are four commonly identified contenders for Brash's
position. None are clear inheritors of the mantle. Former leader
Bill English has broad policy experience, yet still carries the scar
of leading the party to its miserable election defeat in 2002.
Finance spokesman John Key is frequently touted as a
leader-in-waiting, yet many in the party reportedly believe he is too
inexperienced and untested. Deputy Leader (now Acting Leader)
Brownlee has leadership ambitions, but some commentators question his
public appeal. Simon Power, the law and order spokesman, is highly
ambitious and has also been tagged as a future party leader but lacks
political gravitas. Not surprisingly, there is no caucus consensus
around any of these candidates.
Comment: Is Labour playing with fire?
-------------------------------------

7. (C) The media's preoccupation with this matter will relieve Labour
of some of the intense scrutiny it has received over allegations of
misappropriation of public campaign funding (REF B) and other recent
controversies. However, National's claims that the Government has
broken the unwritten convention of keeping clear of MPs private lives
may result in a public backlash against the Government. Most Kiwis
are reticent about their personal lives and virtually all see
themselves as fair-minded and socially tolerant. Nor will National
voters likely turn against Brash for his marital indiscretions: the
son of a minister, Brash has never played up his own moral rectitude.
It's well known that his current wife was previously his mistress.

8. (C) National's leadership is no doubt banking that it can carry
the day by appearing a victim of Labour's unfair aggressions. But
the public may see Brash as dishonest, making it more costly to leave
him in place. This in turn could create a temptation for one or more
of his ambitious potential successors to try to seize the reins. End
Comment.

McCormick

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