Cablegate: Uk Update: Pandemic Flu Preparedness
VZCZCXYZ0051
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHLO #6661 2571507
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141507Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9028
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
UNCLAS LONDON 006661
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
AIAG FOR LANGE, SINGER AND AHMAD, HHS PLEASE PASS TO STEIGER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KFLU UK
SUBJECT: UK UPDATE: PANDEMIC FLU PREPAREDNESS
REF: 05 LONDON 8633
1.(U) Summary. HMG's contingency plans for pandemic flu
continue to evolve. During the past month HMG floated a new
attack rate (the percentage of the population expected to
contract the pandemic influenza virus) for contingency
planning and circulated draft procedures on a new method for
distributing anti-virals. The Department of Health (DH)
predicts HMG will be finished planning by mid-2007. Our
contacts at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and DH
re-affirmed their support for the International Partnership
on Avian and Pandemic Influenza (IPAPI) but expressed some
unease over the role of the EC and the timing of an upcoming
meeting in Bamako. End Summary.
2.(U) A "Letter-to-Colleagues" from Lindsey Davis, HMG's
National Director of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness, made a
splash in the press with its use of a 35% attack rate for a
possible pandemic. This compares with a 25% assumed attack
rate found in the UK's pandemic contingency plan (see Reftel)
released in October 2005. When pressed on the difference our
DH contact stated there had always been a range of attack
rates considered in the original contingency plans.
3.(U) Davis's letter also raised for discussion among health
care providers a new method for distributing anti-virals to
sick patients (Note. DH will finish procuring 14.6 million
doses of the anti-virals, enough to cover 25% of the
population, by the end of September 2006 End Note.) The
proposed new method calls for the establishment of a national
flu hotline which would feed calls to local flu call centers.
At the call centers workers will use a flow chart to
determine if a patient needs the anti-virals or if the
patient needs to come to a health center. If the patient can
remain at home and needs anti-viral treatment the call
workers will ask the patient to designate a friend or
relative to go to an anti-viral depot to pick up the medicine.
4.(U) Our contacts at DH predicted HMG would finish the
contingency planning for pandemic influenza by mid-2007. At
that point the plan would enter a "maintenance" stage. They
also told us they plan to run an exercise named "Winter
Willow" in January or February 2007 to test their contingency
plans.
5.(SBU) While overall very supportive of IPAPI our contacts
did express some concerns. They mentioned the EC,s desire
for a separate place on the core group as a problem area.
Our DH contact stated the Friends of the Presidency meeting
on pandemic influenza which will take place on September 26
in Brussels should lay some of the concerns in this area to
rest. Our DH contact also expressed concern about a possible
scheduling conflict between the December IPAPI meeting in
Bamako and a Global Health Security Group in Japan at the
same time.
6.(U) Comment. HMG's planning on pandemic influenza is now
progressing from top level programs to specific contingency
plans for local areas. HMG continues to be engaged
positively on IPAPI and is appreciative of the information it
gains from contacts with HHS and CDC. While there some
misgivings over the composition and meeting schedule of IPAPI
those concerns do not appear to seriously affect the
commitment of HMG to the overall effort. End Comment.
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