Cablegate: North Korea; Us Legislative Elections; Us Troop Immunity;

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DE RUEHBU #2286/01 2841525
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O 111525Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6158
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002286

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: NORTH KOREA; US LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS; US TROOP IMMUNITY;
EVO MORALES; PLAN COLOMBIA; 10/10/06

1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend papers cover world reaction to North Korea's first nuclear
test, underscoring that every country termed it an act of
provocation, and that superpowers have asked for sanctions that
could include a military action against Pyongyang. According to some
local dailies, US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton warned that a
North Korean attack against South Korea or Japan would be considered
an attack against the US. Papers also report fears of an arms race
in the region and that Argentina joined the overall condemnation of
North Korean nuclear tests.

2. OPINION PIECES

- "Bush asks for a fast response to North Korea's nuclear tests"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
comments (10/10) "According to an announcement made by Pyongyang's
Communist government, major world powers joined the US in condemning
North Korea for its 'underground nuclear tests,' which it performed
on Monday.

"Regardless of the magnitude of the tests or how important they can
be for the development of King Jong Il's nuclear arsenal,
undoubtedly North Korea's defiant attitude has not only revealed the
failure of Washington's hard line and pro-sanctions policy but also
China's moderate stance in favor of a diplomatic solution.

"US President George W. Bush called the North Korean announcement
'an act of provocation that jeopardizes international peace and
security,' and asked for 'an immediate response' from the UN
Security Council. He joined the other members of the so-called Group
of Six (the US, China, Russia, Japan and the two Koreas), which has
held negotiations for three years to convince the Pyongyang
administration to put an end to its nuclear program.

"China, the most important political and economic ally of the
Communist regime, strongly criticized and rejected the test 'in a
shameless way...' For its part, South Korea suspended its
humanitarian aid... Japan said that the North Korean test is a
threat 'to all of humanity' and that it will assess 'severe measures
of retaliation' as a response.

"... Currently, Washington has too main fears in this regard. First
and foremost, if North Korea's announced test is confirmed, this
could affect Southeast Asia's stability and this could trigger an
arms race in the region. Secondly, North Korea being a very poor
country, the Kim Jong Il regime is very likely to eventually sell
its nuclear technology to countries like Syria or even terrorist
groups like Al Qaeda to obtain the money it so badly needs."

- "The UN warns North Korea"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (10/07) "The UN Security Council
urged North Korea to abandon its plans to perform a nuclear test and
resume negotiations about its controversial nuclear program, shortly
after Pyongyang's leader met with high military leaders.

"In a unanimously approved statement, the UN Security Council, which
is empowered to impose economic sanctions and even to order a
military intervention, urged North Korea to abstain from performing
any action that could worsen tension, and it threatened to take
measures if necessary."

- "North Korea - nightmares in international security"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, leading "Clarin's" international analyst, opines
(10/07) "If one takes into account the most serious current studies
performed by some intelligence agencies, multilateral institutions
and even humanitarian organizations, the international concern over
the recurring crisis in the Middle East, the Iranian nuclear program
or wars in Afghanistan and Iraq should be downplayed.

"They say one should be focused on the true possible security
nightmare, which is located in the Korean peninsula...

"... For many reasons, prospects in North Korea are much scarier
than what Western propaganda wants us to believe about an Iranian
theocracy with future access to WMD. There are many more dilemmas in
a nuclear North Korea than, for instance, the fear of a possible
conventional war that could end up in a nuclear confrontation
between Iran and Israel, which already has this armament.

"While experts in the Middle East still speak of only one of three
types of WMD (chemical and biological, in addition to nuclear
weapons), all of them are present in the Korean peninsula in the
framework of an always precarious and military peace, following a

war between 1953 and 1956, which divided Korea into one republic to
the south and a communist state to the north.

"... Nonetheless, the idea of a North Korea launched to the abyss of
a total war is not the most worrisome thing. Whatever damage it
could inflict in the first hours, the response would be so
conclusive that we can predict that the country could quickly
descend into chaos.

"In addition to destruction, we are speaking about waves of
desperate immigrants that could flood the South and (Beijing's big
nightmare) China through the region of Manchuria. This is the
potential damage implied in Kim Jong Il's threatening announcement."

- "Capitol Hill, the focus of a tough confrontation for votes"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (10/08) "... 1994 legislative
elections became a Republican revolution...

"Now, dynamics have changed and it is the Democrats' turn to dream
of a revolution that will corner George W. Bush. The Iraqi 'swamp,'
drops in the economy, cases of corruption, and Republican
representative Mark Foley's sex scandal have contributed to fuelling
Democratic hopes.

"However, Republicans are confident that they will triumph in the
upcoming legislative elections or that, at least, they will not have
to cede as many seats as to lose control of Capitol Hill.

"Much is at stake... Bush could become a 'lame duck.' Democrats are
promoting a negative agenda focused on the war in Iraq, the fragile
status of local economy and Bush's 'lack of competence,' while they
avoid defining their positions on controversial immigration reform
or drafting a concrete program of reforms.

"Republicans are also engaged in a negative campaign about
Democrats, blaming them for 'ineptitude' to describe how they would
deal with the 'global fight on terror.' White House support is
added, with accusations that Democrats are 'cowards' and want to
'flee' Iraq, and thereby yield to terrorism."

- "The US asks Paraguay about troops' immunity"

Leading "Clarin" (10/07) reports "The US asked the Duarte
administration to review its decision to withdraw immunity for US
troops performing military exercises and providing social assistance
in Paraguay.

"FM Ruben Ramirez told journalists that Ambassador James Cason has
formally asked the Paraguayan government to 'review' its decision.

"... Ramirez added that 'it is no longer possible for the Paraguayan
government to grant this kind of immunity (for the military) in the
framework of the Vienna Convention, which is enforceable for
diplomatic and administrative officials.'

"... Nevertheless, according to the US embassy, 'diplomatic
conversations about military cooperation between the two countries
still continue.' And, according to diplomatic sources, Washington
could make an exception with Paraguay in order to continue
performing military exercises next year."

- "Evo Morales defies Bush on coca leaf"

Leading "Clarin" (10/09) reports "Bolivian President Evo Morales
made a strong defense of its anti-drug policy and rejected a US
official document asking La Paz to suspend its authorizations for
new coca plantations and setting a March deadline to re-establish
its coca leaf policy.

"... The Bolivian president rejected the criticism from Washington a
couple of weeks ago about Bolivia's cooperation in the fight against
drugs and called it 'interference.'

"Bush called on the Bolivian administration to 're-focus on its
anti-coca efforts' and not to limit itself to fighting cocaine
traffic. The report promised an assessment of the Bolivian case in
six months, which will be due in March 2007."

3. EDITORIALS

- "Tension in the Korean peninsula"

An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (10/09) "North Korea's
nuclear challenge raises concern due to the risks of an escalation

that could become a concrete threat to international security and
peace.

"The use of nuclear development with military purposes is one of the
means of escape through which isolated countries, which are involved
in conflicts or are ruled by belligerent regimes, seek to take
advantage of an unstable scenario with no rules.

"... In an open challenge, the Pyongyang regime has announced the
implementation of nuclear tests as a response to US 'belligerence.'
Washington called the announcement a provocation and Japan warned
that it would respond harshly. The danger of a violent escalation
lies in North Korea's real offensive capability, with possession of
WMD and the possibility of using them. But this danger is also
another reason to be concerned about international security, which
is often challenged."

- "Colombia struggle against drugs"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (10/10) "Once again, the
USG praised the Colombian government's 'strong commitment' in its
struggle against drugs...

"... The report underscored how important it is for the US to
maintain its assistance to the country through Plan Colombia...

"... Colombia cannot carry out its fight against drugs alone - there
are different fronts of battle... Colombian President Alvaro Uribe
has asked the world to assume greater responsibility in this fight
and to cooperate with the different programs implemented by the
Colombian government regarding alternate crops and forest
protection.

"Drug eradication is not exclusively a Colombian problem but a
global one."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

MATERA

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