Cablegate: Moroccans Protest High Prices with Low Turn-Out
VZCZCXRO5044
RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHCL #1233/01 3041039
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 311039Z OCT 06
FM AMCONSUL CASABLANCA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7435
INFO RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 7742
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0217
RUEHNK/AMEMBASSY NOUAKCHOTT 2194
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0496
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CASABLANCA 001233
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR NEA/MAG AND NEA/PI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN KDEM MO
SUBJECT: MOROCCANS PROTEST HIGH PRICES WITH LOW TURN-OUT
1. (U) Summary: As Ramadan began in late September, so did
protests in Casablanca and other major cities against the rise in
prices of basic commodities. However, levels of participation were
lower than organizers had hoped. This was due in part to the fact
that the GOM gained union acceptance before implementing increases,
causing unions to stay quiet when protests began. The low level of
protest is also attributed to the unwillingness of prominent
political
parties to challenge the government on sensitive social issues before
the 2007 legislative elections. In addition, many Moroccans feel
there is little they can do to change the high cost of living. The
refusal of many to engage on the issue of rising prices illustrates
the GOM's success in influencing parties and unions. End Summary.
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COALITION FORMS TO PROTEST RISING PRICES
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2. (U) A group of organizations in Morocco joined forces at the
start of Ramadan to initiate a movement against cost of living
increases. Spearheaded by the Moroccan Association for Human Rights
(AMDH), the newly formed coalition brought together about twenty
organizations, including many left-wing parties, unions, and NGOs
that
are not allied with the government. The coalition encouraged
citizens
in cities across Morocco to participate in planned demonstrations
against price increases of goods ranging from bread, sugar and
vegetables to fuel, transportation and electricity.
3. (U) The rise in prices has affected a wide array of goods, and
is partly attributed to an increase in Value Added Tax (VAT) from
seven to ten percent in 2006. On average, the price of consumer
goods
has increased by 3.3 percent. Public transportation rose from less
than 30 cents per ticket to about 40 cents. Water and electricity
prices went up seven percent.
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MOVEMENT STRUGGLES TO GAIN TRACTION
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4. (U) Despite the coalition's vision of holding widespread sit-ins
in twenty cities across Morocco, demonstrations have not been as well
attended as organizers had hoped. A demonstration in Casablanca in
early October reportedly drew only 400 participants, an underwhelming
number in a city of about three million.
5. (U) Many believe low turn-out can be attributed to the GOM's
proactive efforts to open a new pattern of social dialogue with
unions. Led by Prime Minister Driss Jettou, the GOM held two
important social dialogue conferences with the unions before
announcing price increases. The conferences included discussions on
pay raises, the cost-of-living, and job stability. Only three such
conferences had been held in the previous ten years, leading social
observers to speculate that the GOM used the social dialogue
conferences to get union buy-in by promising future concessions.
6. (U) Others suggest that legislative elections in 2007 may be
affecting the movement's ability to gain traction. As an article in
the October 7-13 issue of the magazine Tel Quel points out, political
parties and unions allied with the government do not want to
challenge
the palace on social issues before elections. Though they recognize
that outcry over price increases is legitimate, they are not willing
to engage on the issue just now. At the same time, less prominent or
less popular organizations may be using the rising cost of living as
a
rallying point to gain visibility.
7. (U) The "Coordinating Organization for the Fight against Price
Increases" presumably chose to launch its movement during Ramadan to
maximize effect. Household expenses traditionally increase during
the
month-long holiday, and people have been particularly hard hit this
year since it coincided with going back to school. Nevertheless,
some
speculate that Ramadan is actually to blame for low protester turn-
out. After fasting all day, then indulging in the traditional rich
foods of a Ftour, few feel motivated to join an evening
demonstration.
8. (U) An article in the October 13-20 issue of Le Journal reports
that, while the movement has not been huge, it has gained strength,
particularly in small towns. The article also notes, however, that
the subject of rising prices fails to draw the attention that issues
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such as Palestine or the war in Iraq do. Even though high costs
affect a majority of Moroccan households, it is easier to rally
support for global issues around which there is consensus, regardless
of party affiliation.
9. (U) While working-class Moroccans acknowledge the reality of
price increases, they have not taken to the streets en masse. For
many, rising prices are simply a fact of life. EconOff spoke with a
maid who said she noticed price increases several months ago, but not
recently. When asked what people do about the rising cost of living,
she shrugged and noted that the blue-collar workers most affected do
not earn sufficient salaries. One professional Moroccan woman said
that her husband, a professor, had joined a demonstration in
Casablanca after receiving an SMS about it. When asked about working-
class participants, she said, 'We have to protest for them.' The
article in Le Journal reiterated this point, noting that the workers,
students and artisans who were politically active in the 1970s and
1980s are now absent from the political arena.
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GOM RESPONSE LIMITED
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10. (U) The GOM's response to the demonstrations has been low-key
and measured. Although it did reduce the price of gas by about five
cents per liter on October 6, this gesture is perceived to be less a
result of the coalition's efforts, and more an easy way to ease
existing tension given a recent fall in the per-barrel price of oil.
The proposed 2007 budget includes a measure to lower the income tax
rate, but this will not benefit those who do not earn official
salaries.
The Central Bank reports that inflation has reached 3 percent in
the first eight months of 2006, up from an average of 1.7 percent in
the past
five years, but it attributes rising prices to positive factors such
as economic growth and an increase in money supply from tourism and
remittances.
11. (SBU) Comment: When Moroccans took to the streets to protest
high prices in 1981, riots left hundreds dead. The fact that
peaceful
demonstrations can take place now illustrates the regime's greater
degree of openness. Furthermore, it is unusual in Morocco to see
groups coalesce to raise the profile of a sensitive socio-economic
issue.
12. (SBU) Comment (continued): At the same time, the fact that
government unions and parties have not weighed in publicly on the
issue of rising prices indicates both the GOM's new proactive
approach
to social issues, and its familiar ability to co-opt key parties and
unions. The key role that NGOs such as AMDH have played in
encouraging demonstrations against cost-of-living increases also
demonstrates the greater role NGOS are playing on the political
playing field. End Comment.
GREENE