Cablegate: Scenesetter for Visit of Spe Andrew Natsios

VZCZCXRO7474
RR RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #2491/01 2851611
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121611Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4924
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002491

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/SE ANDREW NATSIOS AND AF/SPG

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL SU
SUBJECT: Scenesetter for Visit of SPE Andrew Natsios

1. (U) The following is a scene setter for the upcoming visit of
Special Presidential Envoy to Sudan Andrew Natsios from October 13 -
October 19, 2006.

2. (SBU) General Atmosphere in the Government

-- The NCP has recently backed off on their continuing stream of
bellicose rhetoric and actions. Government officials both in the
press and privately have indicated they hope this visit will mark a
new page in the bilateral relationship based on a true dialogue.

-- While the officials have said they truly want better relations
with the U.S., they have also refused to move on 1706 and hope that
discussions can focus on other issues, such as alternative plans for
Darfur (particularly AU+ with UN support), gaining increased support
from non-signatories, and possible easing of sanctions.

-- The government also wants help from the international community
finding a way to strengthen the DPA by bringing aboard
non-signatories through a combination of pressure and incentives.
There have been many countries/organizations proposing
non-signatories conferences (Egypt, Libya, Eritrea, Qatar, UN, and a
western group led by the US, UK, EU, Netherlands and Norway). The
AU has expressed skepticism over all these conferences and believes
a meeting in Darfur with the rebel commanders is more appropriate.

-- There are indications that unrealistic expectations about what
this visit can accomplish are building, but they will most likely be
satisfied if they feel we are really listening to their concerns.

3. (SBU) Situation in Darfur

-- Fighting in Darfur, including government offensives and
inter-factional rebel/inter-ethnic conflict, continues. This is
largely focused in Northern Darfur, especially along the Chadian
border.

-- As the end of the rainy season approaches, rebel groups,
Chadians, and the government may launch new, larger offensives.
Tensions are already running high, and there was recently some
spontaneous gunplay between Minni's forces and another faction in El
Fashir.

-- The biggest insecurity issue in Southern Sudan is ethnic conflict
centered around the Minawi stronghold of Graida.

-- Minawi continues to ask for some tangible support-- especially
food-- to show the advantages of signing the DPA, and claims his
troops are starving and his movement may continue to splinter.

-- WFP has recently reported that food access dramatically improved
last month, including in areas of North Darfur where they have not
had access for months.

4. (SBU) CPA and SPLM/NCP Politics

-- There has been no progress on Abyei, and the SPLM still complains
of delays in north/south border demarcation, civil service reform,
and transparency in oil revenues. Several SPLM members think the
NCP may have implemented as much of the CPA as they ever will.

-- The SPLM's continued support of UN intervention has driven them
even further from the NCP, with some NCP leaders threatening to
abrogate the CPA.

-- There had been gains in basic freedoms since the signing of the
CPA, with journalists becoming emboldened to print what they wanted
and people feeling they could assemble and protest on their own.
The violent threats against the international community, the
crackdown on journalists and the violent break-up of demonstrations
have led some Sudanese to feel the regime is now as oppressive as
they have ever been in their 18 year reign.

5. (SBU) Other Issues

-- An Eastern Peace Agreement is supposed to be signed on Saturday.
The East was given two positions in the Presidency and many posts in
state and local government, but no governorships. The question of
unifying the region was postponed.

-- President Bashir will most likely ask about Guantanamo detainees.
A well thought out response, even if it has no promises of action,
would be an easy way to show we are at least thinking about their
concerns.

-- The problems with visa issuances continue, and the recent 25 mile
limit has affected both Embassy operations and the operations of
NGOs with American employees operating throughout the country.
While the restriction is supposedly not applicable to American
diplomatic staff at the Embassy, it is unclear if this message is

KHARTOUM 00002491 002 OF 002

getting to those responsible for implementing the policy as there
have been problems getting on flights (both commercial and UN) and
difficulties getting permits to go to Darfur. This also marks the
first time since the signing of the CPA that Khartoum has interfered
with travel to the South. They had previously been content to allow
the South to admit whoever they wanted and travel permits have not
been required for travel to the south since December 2005.

HUME

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