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Cablegate: Drc Presidential Election Runoff: Sitrep 10/27

VZCZCXRO2251
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1666 3001224
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271224Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5054
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001666

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RUNOFF: SITREP 10/27
1200

REF: A. KINSHASA 1664

B. KINSHASA 1654

1. (U) Campaigning for the October 29 DRC vote ends October
27 at midnight. Voters will elect delegates to the new
provincial assemblies, which will later elect senators and
governors, but the race dominating the public eye is the
second round presidential runoff between transitional
President Joseph Kabila and Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba.


2. (U) Kinshasa, which turned out strong for Bemba in the
first round, remains quiet with 12 hours left in the
campaign. Various campaign demonstrations are drawing crowds
in different parts of the city, but neither candidate has
announced plans for public appearances. A rally planned by
the MLC for this afternoon has fizzled out, with some party
spokesmen citing security concerns. A televised debate
between the two candidates originally scheduled for October
26 failed to materialize when the two sides could not reach
agreement on format and ground rules (ref B).

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3. (U) Embassy Kinshasa will be fielding more than 50
American and Congolese observers throughout Kinshasa polling
stations, and in the Kinshasa compilation centers during the
vote count. International observers plan to be out in force
in the capital and throughout the country. The Carter Center
has 45 observers in country, the European Union 300, the
Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) 60,
SADC-Parliamentary Forum (SADC-PF) 80, the Electoral
Institute of South Africa (EISA) 50, the Common Market for
Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) 10, the African Union
50, and the South African Observer Mission (SAOM) 108. The
South Africans -- including SADC, SADC-PF, and AU -- will
also have special technical advisors present at all 64
compilation centers during the counting process.

4. (U) Other regions remain largely calm. Most
election-related conflicts have resulted from confrontations
between supporters of the two candidates at rallies or when
one group removed or defaced the other's election materials.
Sporadic election-related violence has been reported in
Gbadolite, Equateur (ref B), which went strong for Bemba in
the first round, and Lubumbashi (ref A), which Kabila carried
by a wide margin.

5. (SBU) Weather may be a wild card in this round of voting.
Much of the country is well into the rainy season, and
downpours could reduce voter turnout in any number of areas.
Many of the 50,000-plus voting booths are located in remote
areas difficult to reach even during the dry season. Voting
materials in centers located in dilapidated buildings,
temporary shelters, tents, or even in the open air will be
extremely vulnerable to the weather on election day.
MEECE

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