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Cablegate: Bolivian Glaciers Receding Rapidly

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PGOV BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIAN GLACIERS RECEDING RAPIDLY

1. (U) Summary: Bolivian glaciers are receding so rapidly,
say scientists, that most could disappear within the next ten
to 15 years, with alarming implications for potable water and
hydroelectric energy supplies. Scientists tie the last two
decades' acceleration in glacial melt to the greater
intensity and frequency of El Nino events, which in turn are
linked to gradually rising global temperatures. GOB
officials are aware of the glaciers' recession but appear
ill-equipped to cope with what may be serious consequences.
End summary.

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2. (U) The small glaciers of the Bolivian Andes are receding
so rapidly, say Bolivian and French scientists, that the
majority could disappear within the next ten to 15 years.
According to a 14-year study conducted by the Bolivian
Institute of Hydrology and the French Institut de Recherche
pour le Developpement, glacier melt has nearly tripled since
the early 1980s, with glaciers receding more quickly than at
any time since the mid-19th century, when the Little Ice Age
ended locally. Institute of Hydrology Deputy Director Etson
Ramirez told Econoff October 3 that melting accelerated
particularly quickly in the last five to ten years,
ultimately resulting in the near total disappearance of the
Chacaltaya glacier (representative of 80 percent of Bolivian
glaciers, which typically have surface areas of less than one
square kilometer) and significant reductions in the size of
two others. Chacaltaya alone shrunk more than 40 percent
between 1992 and 1998; today only traces remain.

3. (U) Scientists tie the last two decades' acceleration in
glacial melt to the greater intensity and frequency of El
Nino events, which in turn are linked to gradually rising
global temperatures. Ramirez pointed out that El Nino events
now occur approximately once every two years, as opposed to
once every 12 or more years, and appear to be related to
higher average global temperatures and corresponding shifts
in weather patterns. He explained that Andean glaciers are
particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations due to their
position in the tropics and to the mechanisms by which they
function. In contrast to glaciers in the Alps and other
northern hemisphere mountain ranges, which undergo long
accumulation periods in winter, Andean glaciers undergo
relatively short accumulation periods in summer, when
precipitation increases; at the same time, the summer's high
radiation levels accelerate melting, so that Andean glaciers
typically accumulate mass less rapidly than their northern
counterparts.

4. (U) Ramirez and other scientists point to alarming
implications for potable water and hydroelectric energy
supplies, noting that declining glacial runoff will seriously
affect the cities of La Paz and El Alto, which together rely
on run-off for an estimated 80 percent of potable water and
70 percent of the hydroelectric power generated by the
region's ten plants. Scientists predict significant water
and energy shortages by 2009, when demand for both resources
will likely far outpace supply. The cities' two million
inhabitants will be sorely affected, as will the many rural
communities relying on glacial run-off to replenish rivers
and watersheds and to provide water for crops, irrigation
projects, and livestock.

5. (U) Comment: According to Ramirez, GOB officials are aware
of the glaciers' rapid recession but appear ill-equipped to
cope with what may be serious consequences. As recently as a
few years ago, officials refused to accept the scale of the
problem; today, while they recognize it, they are far from
figuring out how to manage it. Funding for feasibility and
engineering studies is scarce, and officials have little
understanding of the scale of potential consequences.
Equally alarming, perhaps, is that Bolivian glaciers'
recession is not unique: glaciers in Ecuador and elsewhere in
the Andes appear to be undergoing the same phenomenon. End
comment.
GOLDBERG

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