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Cablegate: Seeing in 3-D: Usg Regional Coordination To

VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #4372/01 2841308
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111308Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 8830
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4798
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1599
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0649
RUEHYN/AMEMBASSY SANAA 0415

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004372

SIPDIS

CJTF HOA
CDRUSCENTCOM CCJ-5 CJIACG
STATE FOR AF BPITTMAN, S/CT VPALMER, AND S/CT MHAWTHORNE
USAID ADDIS ABABA FOR GANDERS AND MMCCORD
USAID AFR/DAA FOR WWARREN
AFR/EA FOR KNELSON, EMCPHIE
AFR/SD FOR JBORNS
DCHA/AA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK AND LROGERS
DCHA/OMA FOR TBALTAZAR; CMM FOR JDERLETH, EKVITASHVILI
DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK; JDWORKEN
DCHA/OTI FOR RJENKINS; KHUBER; JLANGLOIS
ADDIS ABABA FOR POL KSULLIVAN
DAR ES SALAAM FOR DDELLY, DCM; PWHITE, AID/DIR
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN, PASS TO AMB. SSYMINGTON, CPATCH,
KAMPALA FOR MELLIS
KHARTOUM FOR EWHITAKER
SANAA FOR MSARHAN/MMEREDITH
IGAD COLLECTIVE
KUSLO NAIROBI KE FOR DZIMMER

AIDAC

SIPDIS

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PTER SO KE ET

SUBJECT: SEEING IN 3-D: USG REGIONAL COORDINATION TO
COMBAT TERRORISM IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

REF: A) NAIROBI 2744 B) DAR ES SALAAM 1076


SUMMARY


1. (SBU) Field and Washington representatives of State,
USAID, and DOD met in Nairobi in August to coordinate
efforts to combat terrorism in the Horn of Africa (HOA).
Participants agreed to form a regional team to serve as
a point of contact among relevant USG players. They
also agreed to deepen relationships with the Africa
Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) at the National
Defense University (NDU), examine current programming
for possible regional linkages, and review the Trans
Sahel Counter Terrorism Initiative for concepts
transferable to the Horn of Africa (HOA). The meeting
was a step forward in implementing U.S. national
counter-terrorism strategy in the HOA. END SUMMARY.


Getting "3-D Vision"


2. (U) From August 21 to 23, field and Washington
representatives from State, USAID, and DoD, reflecting
the three "Ds" of the 2006 National Security Strategy
(Diplomacy, Development and Defense), met to discuss and
coordinate at the field level specific programs for
combating terrorism in the Horn of Africa. A list of
the participants will be provided on request. The
August meeting was a continuation of a process that
began with retired Ambassador Shinn's overview of
terrorism in the Horn of Africa and Yemen (submitted
April 2006) and a follow-up to a June 2006 meeting
hosted by USAID/East Africa in Nairobi (ref A). HOA-
based participants have progressed from gaining
interagency familiarity to agreeing to create
interagency teams to combat terrorism in the region.
While the August meeting focused on threats that could
develop in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, colleagues from
Yemen and Djibouti also attended.

3. (SBU) The objective of this meeting was to define
specific ways to implement the National Strategy to
Combat Terrorism, using the markers laid down at the
recent Chiefs of Missions meeting on counter-terrorism
(ref B) and focusing on the intersection of the three
3Ds - diminishing the underlying conditions that foster
terrorism. In addition, Washington participants saw
this meeting as a means to inform ongoing discussions on
the East African Counter Terrorism Initiative (EACTI).
Specifically, participants intended to reach agreement
on the formation of a regional coordination team linked
to country-level counter-terrorism working groups,
including members from USAID and CJTF-HOA, and to
explore activities that diminish the underlying
conditions that foster terrorism in the HOA.


MANDERA TRIANGLE VULNERABILITIES: CONSULTANT VIEWS


4. (SBU) The June meeting participants chose the Mandera
Triangle, an area shared by Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia,
as the first entry point in creating a regional action

plan, intending to apply a regional lens to drive USG
planning to combat terrorism. USAID/East Africa
commissioned a Mandera Triangle study, which was
undertaken by a team of Development Alternatives Inc.
(DAI) consultants. The assessment team, led by
Professor Ken Menkhaus, provided preliminary findings atQthe meeting. (DAI will provide a final report in early
October.) Among the team's findings were: 1) events
and politics in the Mandera Triangle area, a
geographically isolated and remote region, are
increasingly shaped by global trends and events such as
the conflict in Lebanon as well as local interests
emanating from Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia; 2)
perceptions in the area are that the USG supports
Ethiopia against the Islamic Courts; 3) the Kenya side
continues to provide neighboring citizens a "safe
haven," contrasting with the insecurity in the Gedo
region (bordering Kenya) of southern Somalia; 4) a move
by Ethiopian forces against the Islamic Courts in
Somalia would be likely, according to the consultants,
to fuel the spread of extremism and increase sympathy
with Islamists.

5. (SBU) According to the DAI report, protracted and
possibly heavy armed conflict between Ethiopia and the
Islamic Courts as well as increased internal insurgency
activity inside Ethiopia appear likely. In the view of
the consultants, it is also likely that most areas of
Somalia (and many ethnic Somali regions of neighboring
countries) would be affected by the consolidation of
Islamist control, conflicts between Ethiopia and the
Islamists, and radicalization of local Somali
communities in reaction to widespread Ethiopian armed
intervention, if that took place. These possible events
would likely have negative effects in border areas of
Kenya in a 2007 electoral environment characterized by
ethnic tensions. The study also points out the
appearance of Wahhabism in Kenya, which, though its
adherents are still few, could foster terrorism. The
rapidly evolving situation in Somalia makes more urgent
the need to address the underlying conditions that could
be exploited by terrorists in the Mandera Triangle and
in the wider region, according to the consultants.

6. (SBU) Participants found the DAI presentation
valuable and thought-provoking, with many points valid
for the region. In light of this, the report's findings
will inform the coordination of activities related to
combating terrorism among State, CJTF-HOA,
USAID/Ethiopia, USAID/Kenya and USAID/East Africa.
Participants suggested the following as possible
locations for additional detailed studies: Manda Bay
(Kenya), Ogaden region (Ethiopia), and Somaliland and
Puntland (Somalia).


KEY OUTPUTS


7. (SBU) Meeting participants agreed to work regionally
on synchronized implementation, technical assistance,
and information-sharing concerning USG efforts to combat
terrorism. In addition, they recognized that where
current CT working groups in Embassies exist, their
scope should be expanded to include development and
civil affairs. Participants also agreed on the following


specific proposals:

-a. the formation of a Regional East Africa Combating
Terrorism Team (REACT) that focuses on efforts to
diminish the underlying conditions that foster
terrorism, to be facilitated by USAID East Africa and
Embassy Nairobi with representation from Embassies
Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya, CJTF-HOA, and USAID
Missions (Ethiopia, Kenya, and East Africa) in the
region. This body will serve as a point of contact for
DOD/SOLIC (Special Operations, Low Intensity Conflict)
and State/AF/E, State/S/CT and USAID in Washington; and
as a central point for informing CJTF-HOA regional
programming.

-b. an agreement to link country-level counter-terrorism
working groups to REACT. Participants noted that where
these teams exist, they could be substantially enhanced
by broader and deeper engagement with USAID and CJTF-
HOA.

-c. USAID/East Africa will pursue a more formal
cooperative arrangement with the National Defense
University/ACSS on sharing and disseminating analysis
and technical services. Information generated by this
partnership will be shared with bilateral Missions and
Embassies to assist in developing operational plans.

-d. to examine current programming that can be linked to
combating terrorism in areas susceptible to it. The
analysis should assist in prioritizing activities and in
the development of bilateral and regional operational
plans required by State/F.

-e. to examine the concepts employed in the Trans Sahel
Counter Terrorism Initiative in order to apply relevant
concepts to the HOA.


Comment


8. (U) As noted in reftels, Ambassador Shinn's report,
and the updated National Strategy for Combating
Terrorism, the struggle against terrorism is
transnational. That updated national strategy provides
an overarching framework for interagency collaboration
and programmatic focus on "under-governed lands" that
calls for promotion of economic development to help
ensure long-term stability and prosperity. In bringing
together regional Washington representatives, USG actors
and Embassy officials from this volatile region, the
August meeting improved the coordination of our national
strategy to combat terrorism in the HOA.

HOOVER

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