Cablegate: Czech Senate Race - Ods Wins Big, As Expected, But

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P 301532Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
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SUBJECT: CZECH SENATE RACE - ODS WINS BIG, AS EXPECTED, BUT
POLITICAL PICTURE STILL UNCLEAR

1.SUMMARY: The right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS) were the
undeniable winners of the October 27-28 Senate elections in
the Czech Republic. The victory follows the ODS triumph in
local elections October 20-21, and the party's first-place
finish in the general election June 2-3. Klaus is expected to
ask ODS to begin talks on the next government this week.
Party Chairman Mirek Topolanek, whose government failed in a
vote of confidence October 3, has been strengthened by the
victories in the local and Senate races, making it harder for
President Klaus to entrust anyone else with the job of
leading talks on the next government. The nation's second
most popular party, the Social Democrats (CSSD), also picked
up five more Senate seats, giving ODS and CSSD constitutional
majorities in both houses. ODS continues to argue in favor
of an ODS-led temporary caretaker government. CSSD continues
to lobby for a grand coalition with ODS. Each side is
claiming the election results support its position, laying
the groundwork for the upcoming week of crucial but difficult
negotiations. END SUMMARY

2. BIG GET BIGGER. The second round runoff for 27 of the 81
Senate seats ended Saturday with the Civic Democrats (ODS)
the clear winner, taking 14 of the seats and narrowly missing
out on two more. The victory gives ODS 41 of the 81 seats, a
clear majority, and means ODS itself would be able to veto
any bills coming out of the lower house. The Social Democrats
(CSSD), who come in second in opinion polls, won six seats,
bringing the party's total in the Senate to 12. CSSD is
claiming a victory of sorts, pointing out that it beat ODS in
6 of the 11 head-to-head contests. ODS and CSSD, the nation's
two dominant large parties, added a combined nine seats and
now have constitutional three-fifths majorities in both
houses of parliament and could alter election laws to favor
big parties, something the smaller parties are concerned
about. The big parties deny they have any intention to do
this.

3. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) who were defending 7 of
the 27 seats, won four, lowering their Senate total to 11.
In spite of this, ODS and KDU-CSL, which have recently been
allies on the political right, together have enough votes in
the two chambers to re-elect President Klaus, who will run
again in 2008.

4. KDU-CSL was involved in two of the weekend's more
interesting races. One involved Senate Vice-President Petr
Pithart. Pithart, a former Prime Minister, President of the
Senate, and presidential candidate, won by just 24 votes out
of 24,100 cast, a victory margin of less than one-tenth of
one percent. The ODS candidate who lost to Pithart
graciously accepted defeat and chose not to demand a recount.
Another interesting race involved Jiri Cunek, the Christian
Democrat mayor of Vsetin who ran on a campaign listing as one
of his principal achievements getting the Roma out of his
city. Roma activists had even tried to get former inhabitants
back to the city just to vote against Cunek. Cunek took the
highest percentage of votes of any of the Senate candidates,
more than 71% of the 21,070 cast in his district. The strong
showing will increase the odds that he will make a run for
the currently vacant chairmanship of his party when it meets
December 7.

5. AND SMALL STAY SMALL. The Communists had three
candidates in the second-round runoffs. The Greens had one.
Neither party won any seats, a reflection of the fact that
small parties can achieve results under a system of
proportional representation as is used in the lower house,
but fare badly in a first-past-the-post system, as is used in
the Senate. The three smallest parties in parliament; the
Communists, the Christian Democrats and the Greens have 45 of
the 200 seats in the lower house (22.5%), but have only 14 of
the 81 seats in the upper house (17%).

6. Foreign Minister Sasha Vondra, who ran as an independent
for ODS, won his runoff against a former CSSD MP, 58.6% to
41.4%. He is allowed to hold a cabinet post and a senate
seat simultaneously. Vondra is part of the Topolanek ODS
government which resigned October 11 but was asked to stay on
until the next government is formed. If and when Vondra
leaves the Foreign Minister post, he would be a strong
candidate for the head of the Senate's Foreign Affairs
Committee. Eliska Haskova Coolidge, who had worked at the
White House and the State Department for many years before
returning to the Czech Republic, lost her race against a
local CSSD mayor 42% to 58%.

7. COMMENT. The Senate results show the increasing strength
of Czech center-right voters. They also call attention to

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the increasing strength of each of the two large parties, ODS
and CSSD, relative to the smaller parties. Finally, the
results show the Senate is still considered far less
important than the lower house. Turnout for the 2nd round of
the Senate vote was 20.7%, as compared to 64.5% in the June
2-3 general election. In the previous two Senate elections,
the body was seen as a counterbalance to the lower house and
a way of providing gravitas and sense to the vitriolic
partisan debates that take place there. But only three
independents were elected to the Senate this round. As the
two large parties increase their share of the upper house, it
begins to look more and more like an extension of the
politics of the lower house, only with far less popular
support. END COMMENT
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