Cablegate: Taiwan Ongoing Concerns Over Nicaraguan Elections
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2827
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5848
RUEHMU/AMEMBASSY MANAGUA 0134
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 0048
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8199
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 8161
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RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9667
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RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5453
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 003704
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2031
TAGS: PREL TW NU
SUBJECT: TAIWAN ONGOING CONCERNS OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)
1. (C) National Security Council Deputy Secretary General
Joanne Chang (Jaw-ling) told AIT on October 25 that Taiwan
continues to monitor closely the runup to the November 5
presidential election in Nicaragua. She expressed concern
that multiple candidates opposing Sandanista's Daniel Ortega
seem likely to split the conservative vote and give the
election to Ortega, resulting in a diplomatic switch from
Taipei to Beijing. Chang said Taiwan has taken note of
recent U.S. statements calling on the Nicaraguan people to
consider the future of a robust U.S.-Nicaraguan relationship
when they take to the polls on November 5. Chang demurred on
questions about the extent and level of possible support
Taiwan may be providing to the candidates running against
Ortega.
2. (C) Consul General of Nicaragua Armando Miranda told AIT
on October 26 that Taiwan officials have reassured him that
Taipei will not pull out of Nicaragua if Ortega wins the
presidential election and subsequently derecognizes Taiwan.
According to Miranda, Taiwan plans to convert its embassy
into an economic trade office and wait until the next
presidential election because economic investments in
Nicaragua are too large to walk away from. Miranda explained
that Taiwan has given Nicaragua millions of U.S. dollars in
loans to lay the infrastructure and investment for industrial
parks that house 17 large Taiwan manufacturers, primarily in
textiles. The Taiwan business strategy, added Miranda, has
been to use Nicaragua and other countries who are signatories
to the Central America Free Trade Agreement as a springboard
to the US market.
3. (C) Pessimistic on the effects an Ortega victory would
have on Nicaragua, Miranda nevertheless predicted that
derecognition by Managua would be unlikely to have a domino
effect on Taiwan's other allies in the region. Taipei has
devoted extensive economic and political resources to hold
onto most of its Central American partners and the loss of
Nicaragua, resulting from the coming to power of a leftist
government, would probably be a "special case."
4. (C) Over the past few years the PRC, acknowledged
Miranda, has been making very strong overtures to Central
American countries, especially those having formal relations
with Taiwan. Bejiing has focused talks almost exclusively on
promoting economic development programs and investment
opportunities for Chinese companies in Central America.
Mexico has been playing the role of broker between its
southern neighbors and the PRC. Miranda said that in
response Taiwan diplomats have quietly approached their
allies to express Taipei's apprehension and to emphasize that
once Beijing secures their recognition, it will not follow-up
on promises of increased aid and investment.
Comment
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5. (C) A victory for Ortega and a switch in diplomatic
recognition to the PRC would be another blow to Taiwan
diplomacy following the loss of Chad earlier this August.
Taiwan may still enjoy enough economic clout with diplomatic
allies in Central America to prevent further defections in
the region and keep Beijing at bay for now. The loss of
Nicaragua, however, would bring down the number official
diplomatic partners to 23, a level precariously close to the
historical low of 21 reached in the early 1970s. It could
also trigger decisions by other governments currently being
wooed by Beijing. One target of particular concern,
according to FM Huang, is Costa Rica. This could lead a
beleaguered Taipei to further meddle in Central American
politics in its ongoing diplomatic contest with Beijing.
YOUNG