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Cablegate: Correa Effusive; Noboa Squawks; Vote Count

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PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: CORREA EFFUSIVE; NOBOA SQUAWKS; VOTE COUNT
CONTINUES


1. (SBU) Summary: Official results were temporarily delayed
by Noboa's November 27 allegations of unspecified fraud and
his demand that election authorities re-count the vote by
hand in three coastal provinces. National election
authorities disallowed the request as unjustified by election
rules and ordered provincial election authorities to proceed
with the count or face removal from office. As of this
writing, the count continued, with 58% of results reported.
The count is expected to continue for another 48-72 hours
before final results are in. The OAS pronounced the election
process as free and transparent. The Ambassador spoke with
Correa on November 27, who agreed to meet at the end of the
week. End Summary.

TSE Continues Official Count

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2. (U) Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Council (TSE) has counted
65.79% of the presidential votes. Correa leads Noboa by
62.62% to 37.38%. However, the populous Noboa strongholds of
Guayas, Manabi and Los Rios have just begun counting votes
after an interruption spurred by the Noboa camp. TSE
officials predict they will likely finish counting votes in
the next 48-72 hours, and we expect final results to be close
the 56-43 average margin of exit pollsters.

Noboa Alleges Fraud; Calls for Re-count
---------------------------------------

3. (SBU) Refusing to accept initial exit poll results and
the Citizen Participation quick count, three-time
presidential hopeful Alvaro Noboa told reporters late on
November 26 that the exit poll and quick count system "was
nothing more than a scenario to generate fraud." Noboa
subsequently called for a vote-by-vote recount (much slower
than the ongoing scanning and tabulation of vote table
results) in the coastal provinces of Guayas, Manabi, and Los
Rios (which make up his stronghold). Bowing to PRIAN
pressure, provincial election tribunals in these provinces
suspended their vote counts on the morning of November 27.

TSE Orders Provinces to Renew Count

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4. (SBU) Ecuadorian law provides for a re-count only after
the national TSE has nullified the vote count results of a
provincial electoral tribunal. To request nullification,
candidates must appeal results of the provincial vote count
to the national TSE citing specific irregularities. TSE
president Xavier Cazar on November 27 re-affirmed these rules
and the TSE board ordered provincial electoral tribunals to
resume counting votes or be removed from office, as provided
for by Ecuadorian election law. Manabi, Guayas and Los Rios
reportedly resumed counting votes the afternoon of November
27.

OAS Rules Elections Clean
-------------------------

5. (SBU) OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) spokesman
Sen. Jose Viera (Chile), congratulated Ecuador for conducting
"calm" and "transparent" elections that allowed "the will of
voters to be expressed freely." At a November 27 press
conference, Viera said the OAS considers Correa the
legitimate president-elect based on credible exit poll and
quick count information. He also noted that the TSE is the
only entity authorized to declare official results and
confirmed that EOM members would observe the count process
until the final results are confirmed by the TSE.

Gutierrez Offers Grace Period
-----------------------------

6. (SBU) Former President Lucio Gutierrez called on
Ecuadorians to respect election results and to refrain from
violent protest. He said he looked forward to working with
Correa and would give the president-elect a honeymoon of a
few months for Correa to get oriented before Gutierrez would
decide whether to act in support of the Correa government or
in constructive opposition. He criticized Correa's stance
against an FTA with the U.S. and said Correa should maintain
Ecuador's independence from Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.

Null and Blank Vote Levels Normal
---------------------------------

7. (SBU) Since Ecuador's return to democratic elections in
1978, null or blank votes have ranged from 10 to 13% in the
second round of presidential voting. According to
preliminary quick count results from NGO Participacion
Ciudadana, null and blank votes will likely total around 11%
in this year's second round, well within historical norms.

Ambassador Calls Correa
-----------------------

8. (SBU) The Ambassador spoke with Correa on November 27.
Noting that the election results are not official yet, she
congratulated him on his apparent victory and requested a
meeting later in the week. Correa responded effusively,
agreeing to a meeting, thanking the Ambassador for her call,
and noting more than once that the U.S. is "pais amigo" and
that good relations had benefited Ecuador for many years.

Comment
-------

9. (SBU) Noboa's pro-forma challenge to the count was
rightfully rejected by the TSE on procedural grounds,
damaging Noboa's credibility and his already limited ability
to mobilize protest. If Noboa continues to challenge results
without offering any evidence or specific fraud allegations,
the PRIAN's new congressional delegation, which is
maneuvering to comply with his wishes with election
officials, could also emerge tarnished.

10. (SBU) Gutierrez' PSP, meanwhile, is increasingly playing
the role of political linchpin: Gutierrez voters clearly
broke overwhelmingly for Correa and Gutierrez is offering
Correa face-saving alternatives to his planned constituent
assembly and claims to be willing to lend a helping hand in
favor of political reforms to depoliticize the courts and
promote representation. At this early stage, Correa has not
wavered from his campaign line.

11. (SBU) The Ambassador will use her upcoming meeting with
Correa to discuss areas of mutual interest, and signal key
concerns relating to counter-narcotics cooperation and the
importance of maintaining democratic stability.
JEWELL

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