Cablegate: Voting Begins in Egypt's Contentious Labor Union

VZCZCXYZ0005
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHEGA #6799 3121434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZUI RUEWCSE9849 3121424
P 081434Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC

UNCLAS CAIRO 006799

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ELA
STATE FOR DRL/NESCA, ILCSR
LABOR FOR ILAB
NSC FOR WATERS
LONDON FOR TSOU
PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB ECON KISL EG
SUBJECT: VOTING BEGINS IN EGYPT'S CONTENTIOUS LABOR UNION
ELECTIONS

REF: CAIRO 05336

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) THE LABOR UNION VOTE IS THE FIRST NATIONAL-LEVEL
TEST FOR THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) FOLLOWING THEIR STRONG
SHOWING IN 2005'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. WHILE SOME ACCUSE
THEM OF BEING WEAK ON "BREAD-AND-BUTTER" WORKER ISSUES, THEIR
PARLIAMENTARY SUCCESS AND EFFECTIVE GRASSROOTS ORGANIZING
COULD INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE IN THE SECTOR, DESPITE ALLEGED
GOE ATTEMPTS TO HINDER THEIR ABILITY TO FIELD CANDIDATES.
CONTROVERSY AND PROTESTS SURROUNDING ALLEGATIONS OF GOE
MEDDLING IN THE CREDENTIALING OF CANDIDATES HAS LARGELY
DROWNED-OUT DEBATE OVER KEY ISSUES SUCH AS PRIVATIZATION AND
JOB CREATION. END SUMMARY.

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LABOR ELECTIONS KICK OFF
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2. (U) ELECTIONS IN EGYPT'S LABOR UNIONS KICKED OFF NOVEMBER
8 AMID ALLEGATIONS OF GOE MEDDLING IN THE CANDIDATE SELECTION
PROCESS AND HEIGHTENED SECURITY SUPERVISION OF
OPPOSITION-AFFILIATED CANDIDATES. FOLLOWING WEEKS OF DELAYS
AND WRANGLING BETWEEN THE MINISTRY OF MANPOWER AND MIGRATION
(MOMM) AND THE OPPOSITION, AN ELECTION TIMELINE HAS BEEN
SETTLED UPON: FACTORY COMMITTEE ELECTIONS FOR NOVEMBER 8 AND
13 (WITH 11 UNIONS' POLLS ON THE 8TH AND THE REMAINING 12 ON
THE 13TH), NATIONAL UNIONS FOR NOVEMBER 20, AND COMPETITION
FOR SEATS ON EGYPTS UMBRELLA, AND SOLE LEGAL, TRADE UNION
FEDERATION, THE EGYPTIAN TRADE UNION FEDERATION (ETUF) ON
NOVEMBER 27 (NOTE: THE ELECTION STRUCTURE IS DESCRIBED IN
REFTEL. END NOTE.) PRESS REPORTS ESTIMATE MORE THAN 20,000
CANDIDATES WILL BE VYING FOR SEATS ON 1,000 COMMITTEES ON
NOVEMBER 8, WITH SIMILAR NUMBERS OF CANDIDATES COMPETING IN
ROUGHLY THE SAME NUMBER OF COMMITTEE ELECTIONS ON NOVEMBER
13.

3. (U) GIVEN THE CONTENTIOUSNESS AND OCCASIONAL VIOLENCE THAT
HAS MARKED THE REGISTRATION PROCESS, THE GOE HAS DEPLOYED
EXTRA POLICE AROUND POTENTIAL HOTSPOTS, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CAIRO'S MAIN TAHRIR SQUARE AND ETUF HEADQUARTERS. THESE ARE
THE FIRST NATIONAL-LEVEL ELECTIONS SINCE 2005'S PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS, AND THE FIRST LABOR UNION ELECTIONS SINCE 2001.

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CREDENTIALING CONTROVERSY
-------------------------

4. (SBU) THE CANDIDATE REGISTRATION PROCESS HAS FUELED
CONTROVERSY, AS OPPOSITION GROUPS HAVE ACCUSED THE GOE OF
IRREGULARITIES AND MEDDLING. THE MB HAS CRITICIZED WHAT IT
DEEMS GOE-INSPIRED "CRACKDOWNS" ON MB-AFFILIATED WORKERS
SEEKING TO RUN. THE MB STATED ON ITS WEBSITE THAT OVER 520
MB CANDIDATES HAVE BEEN DENIED CANDIDATE CREDENTIALS, AND
THAT THE SECURITY SERVICES HAD SUBJECTED MANY MORE
PROSPECTIVE CANDIDATES TO DETENTION, THREATS TO CAREERS AND
FAMILY, AND "TEMPTATIONS" OR FINANCIAL INDUCEMENTS TO
WITHDRAW THEIR NOMINATIONS.

5. (SBU) WORKERS FOR CHANGE (WFC), A GROUP AFFILIATED WITH
OPPOSITION ORGANIZATION KEFAYA, DEMONSTRATED ON OCTOBER 29
DEMANDING JUDICIAL OVERSIGHT OF THE ELECTIONS AND ACCUSING
THE MOMM OF MANIPULATING NOMINATION APPROVAL PROCEDURES IN
ORDER TO BAR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES FROM RECEIVING THE
NECESSARY CERTIFICATES. SPECIFICALLY, THEY CHARGE THAT THE
GENERAL UNIONS ARE CLOSELY CONTROLLED BY THE NDP AND
OFFICIALS RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING APPLICATIONS ARE THEREFORE
ARBITRARILY DENYING SOME CANDIDACIES. WFC CITES 630 WORKERS
AS HAVING BEEN BARRED FROM COMPETING IN THE FIRST ROUND.
WFC, THE MB AND OTHERS HAVE ALSO CRITICIZED THE SHORT APPEALS
PERIOD FOR THOSE DENIED CERTIFICATION. THE MOMM TIMETABLE
STIPULATED THAT CANDIDATE NOMINATIONS WOULD BE ACCEPTED
OCTOBER 28-29, CANDIDATES ANNOUNCED OCTOBER 30, APPEALS
ACCEPTED NOVEMBER 1-2, APPEALS HEARD NOVEMBER 3, AND FINAL
LISTS ANNOUNCED NOVEMBER 4. OPPOSITION GROUPS CLAIMED THE
PERIOD ALLOTTED TO HEAR APPEALS WAS INTENTIONALLY INADEQUATE.

6. (SBU) IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER ACCUSATIONS, MINISTER OF
MANPOWER AISHA ABDEL HADI ANNOUNCED OCTOBER 26 THAT
PROCEDURES FOR CANDIDACY WOULD BE "EASED," AND THAT AN MOMM
OPERATIONS ROOM WOULD FIELD COMPLAINTS REGARDING THE CONDUCT
OF THE ELECTIONS AND TO REPORT IRREGULARITIES. RESPONDING TO
CRITICISM OF RULING PARTY INTERFERENCE IN THE CANDIDATE
NOMINATION PROCESS, ETUF SECRETARY GENERAL MOHAMED MORSI
STATED PUBLICLY THAT THE ELECTIONS WILL ENCOMPASS "ALL TRENDS
AND PARTIES."

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CLASHES, DETENTIONS
-------------------

7. (SBU) CLASHES BETWEEN WORKERS AND SECURITY FORCES OCCURRED
ON OCTOBER 29 WHEN 400 WORKERS FROM THE STATE-RUN ELECTRIC
UTILITY PROTESTED OUTSIDE OF ETUF HEADQUARTERS DEMANDING
ELECTION CERTIFICATES. SIMILAR DEMONSTRATIONS OCCURRED
THROUGHOUT LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER AS THE CANDIDATE
REGISTRATION DEADLINE LOOMED. MB PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY MEMBER
SABER ABUL FOTOUH HAS CHARGED THAT THE "SECURITY AGENCIES"
PREVENTED 25 PERCENT OF POTENTIAL MB CANDIDATES FROM
RECEIVING ELECTION CREDENTIALS.

8. (SBU) MANY REPORTS OF ARRESTS AND DETENTIONS HAVE BEEN
CIRCULATING ON THE INTERNET. THE MB ALLEGED ON OCTOBER 28
THAT SECURITY FORCES ARRESTED AT LEAST 20 MEMBERS SEEKING TO
RECEIVE CANDIDATE CREDENTIALS, ALTHOUGH THE MINISTRY OF
INTERIOR DENIED KNOWLEDGE OF THE ARRESTS. THE MB ALSO
ALLEGED SECURITY FORCES PREVENTED 1,500 MB-AFFILIATED WORKERS
FROM REACHING ETUF HEADQUARTERS TO PROTEST THE INTERVENTION
OF THE SECURITY SERVICES IN THE ELECTIONS. WFC ALLEGED THAT
ON OCTOBER 29 POLICE DETAINED ONE OF ITS ACTIVISTS WHO WAS
PASSING OUT LEAFLETS IN FRONT OF ETUF HEADQUARTERS. THE
LEAFLETS REPORTEDLY WERE DENOUNCING SECURITY INTERVENTION IN
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS AND WARNING OF GOE VOTE RIGGING.
ACCORDING TO THE GROUP, THE ACTIVIST WAS DETAINED FOR THREE
HOURS AT AL-AZBAKIYA POLICE STATION AND THEN RELEASED.

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THE MB'S STANCE
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9. (SBU) THE MB PLANS A STRONG PUSH IN ALL LABOR SECTORS
EXCEPT TOURISM, BUT ADDED THAT IT WILL NOT SEEK AS MANY SEATS
AS IT BELIEVES IT COULD WIN. CURRENTLY, THE MB HAS PUBLICLY
STATED IT WILL COMPETE IN 1,700 OF THE ROUGHLY 2,000 LOCAL
UNION ELECTIONS. ALTHOUGH IT HAS NOT CIRCULATED A WRITTEN
PLATFORM, THE MBS LABOR ELECTION PROGRAM SEEMS TO FOCUS ON
THREE MAIN POINTS: REGAINING WORKER RIGHTS ERODED DUE TO
ECONOMIC REFORMS, STANDING UP TO "ABUSES" OF THE
PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM SUCH AS LAYOFFS AND EARLY RETIREMENTS,
AND HIGHLIGHTING THE NECESSITY TO ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN
EGYPTIAN INDUSTRY.

10. (SBU) REGARDING ELECTORAL SUPERVISION, MB PARLIAMENTARIAN
SABER ABUL FOTOUH STATED TO THE PRESS RECENTLY THAT "IF THE
ELECTIONS LACKED TRANSPARENCY, THE MB WILL TAKE THE CASE TO
COURT, WHICH COULD RENDER THE WHOLE ELECTION PROCESS NULL AND
VOID AS WAS THE CASE WITH RECENT (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS.
THE OTHER ALTERNATIVE WILL BE FOR THE MB TO DECLARE A FREE
LABOR UNION ORGANIZATION PARALLEL TO THE STATE-OWNED ONE."
COMMENTING PUBLICLY LATER, HOWEVER, MB SUPREME GUIDE MEHDI
AKEF SAID HE WAS NOT AWARE OF PLANS FOR A PARALLEL LABOR
UNION ORGANIZATION AND THAT ANY ELECTION IRREGULARITIES WOULD
BE DEALT WITH AS THEY ARISE.

11. (SBU) REGARDING ALLEGED GOE EFFORTS TO PREVENT A STRONG
MB SHOWING, THE MB HAS ACCUSED STATE-OWNED COMPANIES IN THE
TEXTILES, PETROLEUM, AND CHEMICAL SECTORS OF TRANSFERRING
POTENTIAL-CANDIDATE WORKERS TO REMOTE LOCATIONS, REFUSING TO
ISSUE WORKER CERTIFICATES FOR CANDIDATE CREDENTIALS,
SUBJECTING EMPLOYEES TO HARASSMENT, AND IN SOME CASES,
OFFERING FINANCIAL REWARDS NOT TO RUN.

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SUPERVISION
-----------

12. (SBU) THE MOMM AND ETUF HAVE APPARENTLY ACCEDED TO AN
ADMINISTRATIVE COURT VERDICT REQUIRING FULL JUDICIAL
SUPERVISION OF THE ELECTIONS. IT IS NOT CLEAR, HOWEVER, HOW
MOMM/ETUF WILL INTERPRET AND IMPLEMENT THE VERDICT. WHILE
OPPOSITION GROUPS SUCH AS WFC ARGUE THAT "JUDICIAL
SUPERVISION" MEANS A JUDGE IN EVERY POLLING STATION, ETUF HAS
STATED SUPERVISION WILL BE AT THE BROADER, GOVERNORATE LEVEL.
LATEST REPORTS INDICATE 32 JUDGES WILL BE DEPLOYED TO
MONITOR THE ELECTIONS. NOT SATISFIED WITH GOE SUPERVISION
ARRANGEMENTS, EIGHT NEWLY-ESTABLISHED CIVIL SOCIETY
ORGANIZATIONS FORMED A NEW COALITION CALLED "THE EGYPTIAN
COALITION FOR DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT" TO MONITOR BOTH THE LABOR
UNION ELECTIONS AND UPCOMING JUDGES CLUB ELECTIONS. JUDICIAL
SUPERVISION OF LABOR UNION ELECTIONS IS AUTHORIZED UNDER
ARTICLE 41 OF LAW 35, PASSED IN 1976.

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COMMENT
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13. (SBU) WITH THE CANCELLATION OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE
SPRING OF 2006, THE LABOR UNION VOTE IS THE FIRST
NATIONAL-LEVEL TEST FOR THE MB FOLLOWING THEIR STRONG SHOWING
IN 2005'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. MANY IN THE LABOR
COMMUNITY HERE DOWNPLAY THE MB'S CHANCE TO MAKE SERIOUS
INROADS, ACCUSING THEM OF BEING WEAK ON "BREAD-AND-BUTTER"
ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH INSURANCE AND JOB CREATION. BUOYED BY
THEIR PARLIAMENTARY SUCCESS AND EFFECTIVE GRASSROOTS
ORGANIZING, HOWEVER, THEY HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE
THEIR INFLUENCE, DESPITE ALLEGED GOE ATTEMPTS TO HINDER THEIR
ABILITY TO FIELD CANDIDATES. TRADITIONAL LABOR PLAYERS SUCH
AS THE LEFTIST COALITION, AND THE MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTIES
SUCH AS AL WAFD, AL TAGAMMU, AND THE NASSERISTS, HAVE FAILED
TO ASSERT THEMSELVES. CONTROVERSY SURROUNDING CREDENTIALING
AND CANDIDATE INTIMIDATION HAS ALSO DROWNED OUT DEBATE OF KEY
ISSUES FACING EGYPT'S LABOR FORCE SUCH AS PRIVATIZATION AND
JOB CREATION.
RICCIARDONE

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