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Cablegate: Drc Elections: Kabila Maintains Lead with 26

VZCZCXRO3641
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1724 3121722
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081722Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5130
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001724

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA MAINTAINS LEAD WITH 26
PERCENT OF DISTRICTS REPORTING

REF: A. KINSHASA 1719
B. KINSHASA 1618
C. KINSHASA 1485

1. (U) With results from 26 percent of the DRC's electoral
districts now tabulated, President Joseph Kabila maintains a
preliminary lead over Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba in the
October 29 DRC presidential vote. The Independent Electoral
Commission (CEI) released results from 27 additional
electoral districts November 7, bringing the total votes
counted to nearly 3.15 million from 44 of 169 districts
nationwide. Kabila votes account for 71.9 percent of the
total, Bemba's 28.1 percent.

2. (U) More than two-thirds of the votes tallied to date come
from eastern provinces where Kabila has his base of support.
Twenty-two of the 44 districts are from the east, 16 from the
west and six from the centrally-located Kasai region. No
results have yet been announced from Kinshasa, where Bemba is
expected to do well.

3. (U) Kabila's votes remain drawn primarily from the east,
Bemba's from the west and center. Kabila has won 98 percent
of votes tallied from Katanga, Maniema, North Kivu, South
Kivu, and Orientale provinces. Bemba has won 79 percent of
the vote thus far reported from Bandundu, Bas-Congo, and
Equateur provinces, as well as 95 percent in Eastern and
Western Kasai.

4. (SBU) Kabila's alliances with western politicians Antoine
Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu (refs B and C) have produced mixed
results so far. Kabila has won just seven percent of the
vote in Nzanga's base in Equateur, where he won two percent
in the July 30 first round. He is faring better in Gizenga's
home province of Bandundu, winning 37 percent of votes
counted, as compared to three percent before.

5. (U) Turnout rates in the 44 districts average 66.04
percent of eligible voters, down approximately six percent
compared to the July 30 election. Nationwide participation
then was 71 percent. Participation in the 22 eastern
districts is down five percent, while in the 16 western
districts it is down nearly 14 percent. Turnout rates in the
six Kasai districts that have thus far reported has risen
nearly five percent, however.

5. (SBU) Comment: Particularly in the absence of any results
from Kinshasa, the announced numbers should not be taken to
indicate any nationwide voting trends. End comment.
MEECE

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