Cablegate: Eu Analysis Finds No Support for Bemba Fraud Claims

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PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1778 3261622
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221622Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5202
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001778

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: EU ANALYSIS FINDS NO SUPPORT FOR BEMBA FRAUD CLAIMS

REF: A. KINSHASA 1774
B. KINSHASA 1765
C. KINSHASA 1759
D. KINSHASA 1754

1. (U) An analysis by the European Union (EU) Electoral
Observer Mission of votes cast in the October 29 presidential
election does not support charges of widespread fraud raised
by Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba and his supporters in
complaints to the Independent Electoral Commission (ref A)
and the Supreme Court (ref B).

2. (U) The EU mission analysis, released November 17,
focused on three systemic issues: the high number of ballots
cast by special dispensation ("derogation") (ref C), the
effect of these ballots on the election results, and
purported discrepancies between vote counts by Bemba party
witnesses and those posted by the Independent Electoral
Commission (CEI).

3. (U) The EU analysts found that election officials often
erroneously tallied two distinct categories of voters
together with those voting by special dispensation: "special
list" and "omitted list" voters. They concluded that these
two groups accounted for only a minority of votes listed in
the special dispensation category and were the result of
mislabeling rather than fraud. They stated that poll workers
should have recorded both classes of voters on separate
lists, and only at a limited number of designated polling
centers.

4. (U) The EU analysts concluded that votes by special
dispensation did not influence the outcome of the election.
Assuming 12 legitimate votes by dispensation at each of the
50,045 polling centers, the EU estimated that a remaining
maximum number of 650,000 out of some 1,100,000 votes by
special dispensation could potentially be considered
incorrectly labeled. The EU's statement noted that even in
the theoretical case that all 650,000 were fraudulent and
that all had been in favor of one candidate, the final result
would not have changed. President Joseph Kabila's margin of
victory was 2.6 million votes -- far more than the number of
votes in question.

5. (U) The EU mission also compared the official CEI vote
counts with those recorded by its observers at nearly 1,000
polling stations. They found no significant divergence
between EU observer counts and official final numbers posted
by the CEI.

6. (U) In a November 20 interview with Radio France
International, Eric de Palieres, the deputy chief of the EU
observer mission, allowed that irregularities and even minor
fraud had occurred during the voting. He said that
irregularities were equally evident in western provinces that
favored Bemba, especially Equateur, and in eastern provinces
that favored Kabila, especially Katanga. He emphasized that
the mission had found no evidence that these irregularities
changed the result of the election.

7. (U) Comment: Bemba's court challenge claiming the
result of the election should be set aside due to
irregularities in the electoral process hinges on many of the
claims refuted by the EU analysis. Other observer missions,
including the Carter Center (ref D), have commented publicly
on the results, but neither they nor any source not
affiliated with Bemba's camp has found evidence to support
the Bemba's camp claims of fraud. End comment.
MEECE

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