Cablegate: Sit Rep 5 - Nicaraguan Elections

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PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #2517/01 3181906
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141906Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8208
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 002517

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 5 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

REF: A. REFTEL 2491 AND PREVIOUS
B. REFTEL 2337

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador P. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b
and d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: ALN Deputy Yamileth Bonilla is confident the
ALN will win at least 27 seats in the National Assembly which
the ALN will use to influence the composition of the
Assembly's executive board. The president of Bolanos' APRE
party did not win an Assembly seat, but promises to help
Montealegre consolidate the ALN, convert disaffected PLC
deputies and mayors, and help prepare the ALN for the 2009
municipal races. The FSLN has asked President Bolanos'
senior political advisor, Frank Arana, to stay in government
after the January transition, an offer Arana is considering
in order to provide the Sandinistas with a "voice of reason."
Building on the name recognition and momentum it developed
during the election, pro-democracy NGO MpN will focus on
helping citizens obtain cedulas, establishing an independent
national ID entity, and training future political leaders.
While a power struggle threatens to divide the PLC,
Montealegre is reaching out to the liberal strongholds of
Matagalpa and Jinotega to consolidate support for the ALN.
Recently elected MRS deputy Mario Valle abandoned the MRS to
seek other alliances, leaving the MRS with only three
deputies. Ortega warns representatives from rural collective
organizations that he will not tolerate land seizures under
his new government. END SUMMARY.

ALN Assembly Deputy Certain ALN Remains in Second Place
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2. (C) According to re-elected ALN Assembly Deputy Yamileth
Bonilla, the ALN remains in second place in the Presidential
race, approximately 2.5 percentage points above the
third-placing PLC. She told us that disputes over some of
the seats continue, but estimates the ALN should gain at
least 27 seats including Eduardo Montealegre,s and President
Bolanos,. Bonilla noted that with the desertion of
Sandinista Renovation Movement,s (MRS) Assemblyman Mario
Valle to the FSLN, the MRS may lose the benefits of caucus
status because it must maintain at least four members to be
certified. Once the Assembly seats are resolved, the next
fight will be over the composition of the Assembly executive
board, which Montealegre hopes to lead, but the PLC will
oppose, she said.

APRE President Loses Assembly Seat, Will Support ALN,
Democratic Reform
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3. (C) Over lunch on November 11, Alliance for the Republic
(APRE) President/ALN National Assembly candidate Miguel Lopez
Baldizon expressed disappointment that he will not win an
Assembly seat. He shared with polcouns his determination to
help Eduardo Montealegre consolidate the ALN, convert
disaffected Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) deputies and
mayors to the new party, and prepare the ALN for Nicaragua,s
2009 municipal races. Lopez Baldizon also hopes to establish
a think tank to strengthen Nicaragua,s democracy and bolster
the ALN,s chances to win a number of municipalities in 2009
and the presidency in 2011.

Presidential Advisor Deliberates Remaining in Government
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4. (C) President Bolanos, senior political adviser, Frank
Arana, may accept the FSLN,s offer to remain in government.
Arana told polcouns on November 12 that the FSLN lacks
expertise in running a modern, democratic presidency and has
sought his help. He believes that his continuing in
government would provide the Sandinistas a "voice of reason."
Arana also intends to help the ALN consolidate and expand
support, starting with recruiting some of the salvageable PLC
lawmakers to join the ALN -- including possibly Carlos
Noguera, Jorge Castillo Quant, Guillermo Osorno, Ramon
Gonzalez, and Guillermo Montenegro. However, he believes
Francisco Aguirre Sacasa will not leave the PLC because he
aspires to assuming the presidency of the party.

MpN Promises to Forge Ahead
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5. (SBU) In a recent meeting with the Ambassador, DCM, and
poloffs, Movement for Nicaragua (MpN) promised to continue

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working towards democracy in Nicaragua, declaring "we're
needed now more than ever." According to MpN's executive
director, the MpN will now focus on making sure Nicaraguans
can obtain cedulas (ID documents required for voting),
creating a new national ID entity that is independent from
the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), and establishing a
leadership institute to groom future political leaders.
(NOTE/COMMENT: In the months leading up to the election, MpN
gained household name recognition and established a strong
network of thousands of supporters through its pro-vote,
pro-democracy advocacy and its outspoken criticism of the
problems related to the production and distribution of
cedulas. With Eduardo Montealegre leading a strong
opposition group in the Assembly and with the backing of
civil society, coordinated through pro-democracy
organizations like MpN, it will be much more difficult for
Daniel Ortega to advance a "pro-Pact" agenda in the more
pluralistic legislature. The Arnoldo Aleman-Daniel Ortega
power sharing Pact has been weakened and MpN recognizes the
importance of maintaining the anti-Pact momentum established
during the campaign to continue pressuring for change through
civil society. END NOTE/COMMENT.)

Infighting Threatens to Fracture PLC, ALN Gears up for the
Future
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- -

6. (C) According to Contra leader Luis Fley, there are
rumors that a power struggle between Enrique Quinonez and
Wilfredo Navarro could divide the PLC, with Quinonez leading
the pro-Aleman faction. (NOTE: In October, Post submitted a
second advisory opinion recommending that the Department
revoke Quinonez' visa for facilitating trafficking in
narcotics. The case is still pending. END NOTE.) Fley
noted that the ALN continues to dispute Assembly seat
assignments for Boaco and Matagalpa, and possibly the North
Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN). He also shared that
within the next ten days, he will accompany Montealegre to
Matagalpa and Jinotega -- traditional Contra strongholds --
to continue efforts to gain support for the ALN in the
PLC-dominated rural parts of these departments. Fley
confirmed that the PLC's circulation of a fake resignation
letter falsely attributed to Montealegre did considerable
damage in these areas, as did false claims that Rizo was the
candidate favored by the U.S.

MRS Falls Victim to Assembly Machinations
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7. (C) Mario Valle, who won a seat the National Assembly for
the MRS, has rejected his alliance with the MRS in favor of a
possible alliance with President-elect Daniel Ortega's
Sandinista Front (FSLN) or with Salvador Talavera, the
break-away member of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN)
who signed a Peace Accord with Ortega and who may now form
his own "bancada" (caucus) in the Assembly. Valle's
defection leaves the MRS with only three Assembly seats, not
enough to form an official bancada. (COMMENT: Valle's move
marks the beginning of the political game of
alliance-swapping as deputies and parties evaluate their
options and maneuver for greater advantage. At this point,
it is unclear whether Talavera will attract enough members to
create a new caucus. However, with the Aleman-Ortega Pact
potentially weakened, it is clear that he sees potential to
sell his votes to the highest bidder. END COMMENT.)

Ortega Warns Rural Supporters against Land Grab
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8. (C) In apparent recognition of the concern amongst
landowners that the Ortega presidency will usher in a new
wave of land appropriations, Ortega met over the weekend with
representatives of rural collective organizations to warn
them that taking land is not acceptable. Ortega reportedly
asked the attendees to respect private property rights and
informed them that "titled properties will be handed out in
an orderly manner and those that receive them must make
payments." (COMMENT: In a meeting with investors in
mid-October, Ortega did not address pointed questions about
the court system's failure to resolve previous land seizure
cases and asserted that, while private property rights are
important, poor and indigenous people also have "rights that
must be respected." Thus, despite Ortega's initial
post-election statements, whether or not Ortega respects
property rights looms large in the minds of most Nicaraguans
and investors. END COMMENT.)

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TRIVELLI

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