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Cablegate: Sit Rep 7 - Nicaraguan Elections

VZCZCXRO2832
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #2537/01 3212142
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 172142Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8231
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002537

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 7 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

REF: MANAGUA 2531 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

1. (U) Summary: With the deadline to submit formal complaints
regarding the vote count fast approaching at midnight on
November 17, the political parties are rushing to check the
official numbers against the results provided by their poll
watchers -- a task made especially arduous because the
Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) has refused to provide
parties or observers with an electronic version of the
results. The CSE has already admitted to major counting
errors in Masaya. Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) criticized
the slow pace of the CSE's release of results, and called on
the Council to respect the will of the people when allocating
National Assembly seats. Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC)
Presidential candidate Jose Rizo has publicly blamed the
PLC-Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) pact for the FSLN's
victory and called for a full reorganization of the PLC
leadership structure, including the withdrawal of Arnoldo
Aleman from political life. End Summary.

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CSE Refuses to Share Actas
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2. (SBU) The CSE released the final provisional results to
the media on November 15 (reftel), giving the parties until
midnight on November 17 to register any formal complaints
regarding vote tallies. The parties are comparing their
results (actas) with the official CSE results, but are
inhibited by the CSE's refusal to release the final results
electronically. The CSE previously released a DVD with over
60 percent of the actas and posted over 91 percent of the
actas on its web site for only about one day before removing
them.

3. (C) The parties have alerted local and international
observer groups of the CSE's unwillingness to share the final
data with them. (Comment: The CSE has also refused to release
the actas to observer groups. CSE chief of staff Rodrigo
Barreto told poloff that the CSE will not provide the DVDs
because party poll watchers are using copies of CSE-provided
actas to file complaints instead of their own original
copies, which they must submit according to CSE regulations.
End Comment.)

CSE Admits Mistakes in Masaya
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

4. (U) Following an ALN press conference revealing major
inconsistencies in the departmental deputy vote count in
Masaya (reftel), the CSE released a statement admitting the
errors. Masaya Departmental Electoral Council (CED)
president Thelma Espinosa explained that the results of
certain municipalities had been omitted from the CED's
official tally. The corrected count added thousands of votes
to the totals for the ALN, FSLN and PLC, but do not appear to
change the outcome of the allotment of deputy seats for
Masaya. (Comment: ALN chief poll watcher Carlos Garcia
informed polcouns that the final results will probably not
alter the outcome for the ALN. End Comment.)

MpN Criticizes Slow Pace of Results
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

5. (U) The Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) released a
statement on November 16 criticizing the CSE for the slow
publication of vote results and the delay in defining the
distribution of National Assembly seats. MpN publicly
wondered why the CSE took eight days to release the final
eight percent of results after counting 92 percent in the
first three days. MpN encouraged the political parties to
issue formal complaints regarding inaccurate or manipulated
results and urged the CSE to "respect the will of the people"
when deciding the final distribution of National Assembly
seats.

6. (SBU) MpN also urged the new deputies-elect to appoint
qualified candidates for the Supreme Court and National
Prosecutor's office (Fiscalia). (Comment: Emboffs have been
working with civil society groups to pressure the National
Assembly to select qualified candidates for the governmental
institutions subject to Assembly appointments. Civil society
pressure resulted in the current Assembly's postponing the
selection of new justices and Fiscalia officials until the
newly-elected representatives can make the decision next
year. End Comment.)

MANAGUA 00002537 002 OF 002

Rizo Calls for Aleman's Resignation
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

7. (U) The internal PLC power struggles heated up on November
16 when PLC Presidential candidate Jose Rizo called for PLC
leader Arnoldo Aleman's withdrawal from the party. Rizo
blamed Aleman for the FSLN victory, stating that the PLC
should never have agreed to lower the threshold for a first
round victory from 45 percent to 35 percent. He claimed that
"intransigent attitudes" within the PLC drove the creation of
the ALN and the defection of many PLC members to the new
party. Rizo called for the "complete and total" renovation
of PLC leadership.

Meeting with ET and NDI
- - - - - - - - - - - -

8. (C) In Ambassador's November 16 meeting with National
Democratic Institute (NDI) country director Deborah Ullmer
and Etica y Transparencia (ET) director Roberto Courtney,
they shared ET's analysis of the assignment of National
Assembly deputy seats (based on 94.94% of the JRVs tallied).
Courtney explained that ET's numbers coincide closely to the
CSE's, except that ET results suggest that the MRS should
have a sixth seat and the FSLN should have 37 seats, not 38.
He acknowledged, however, that the ET count did not obtain
adequate information to fully assess the results in
Chinandega, Managua, Granada, Matagalpa, RAAN, and RAAS,
given the closeness of the races in those departments.
(Note: The PLC says it will challenge a seat in RAAN, while
the ALN expects to challenge seats in Chinandega and Managua.
End Note.)

9. (C) Courtney voiced concern that the CSE's final
provisional results by JRV had not been posted on the CSE's
web page. When he learned from us that the ALN and MRS had
not received the diskettes with this information, he was
alarmed, claiming that he had assumed the CSE had provided
the parties the information when it announced the results on
November 15. Courtney suggested that the parties call for an
extension of the November 17 deadline for parties to submit
appeals regarding the election results. He commented that
observers cannot intercede on behalf of the parties unless
the parties inform them of their problems; he promised to
follow up with the ALN and MRS on the matter. (Note: We
heard since that Courtney had talked to the ALN and MRS and
offered to assist them -- including providing the ALN with a
number of the 51 actas it is missing. End Note.)

ALN intends to submit appeals before the midnight deadline
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

10. (C) ALN administrator Kitty Monterrey confirmed with
polcouns on November 17 that she had met with Courtney and ET
had provided the ALN 29 of the 51 actas the ALN was missing.
She added that the ALN will submit all of its appeals before
the CSE in advance of the November 17 midnight deadline.
According to Monterrey, the ALN will include not only its
appeals regarding Assembly seat allocations in some of the
departments and on the national level, but also, its overall
observations of the irregularities it has detected in the
vote tally process. She will share an electronic summary of
the ALN's report.

Comment
- - - -

11. (C) The CSE's refusal to provide the parties with a final
electronic version of the actas has greatly impeded their
ability to compare vote results. The significant
inconsistencies (in Masaya, for example) and blatant attempts
at manipulation (in Carazo, for example -- see reftel)
suggest that the parties have ample reason to be suspicious
of the official CSE results. We will continue to monitor the
situation and facilitate communication between the parties
and observer groups.
TRIVELLI

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