Cablegate: Election: Correa Wins Big, Noboa Fizzles

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 002898

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION: CORREA WINS BIG, NOBOA FIZZLES

1. (SBU) Summary: Leftist candidate Rafael Correa
(representing the Proud and Sovereign Fatherland
Movement-PAIS and Socialist Party) won the runoff round of
presidential voting decisively over rival candidate Alvaro
Noboa (PRIAN) on November 26, according to most exit polls
and quick count results. The most credible quick count put
the difference at 13 percent. One polling firm associated
with Noboa reported a Noboa victory; Noboa questioned poll
results and called on his supporters to wait for official
results (expected by November 28 at the earliest). Voting
proceeded normally on election day, with few unusual
incidents reported. Correa declared victory in a
post-electoral press conference, and cited vote results as
evidence of support for his proposed constituent assembly to
profoundly reform the state, including Congress. He
reaffirmed cabinet selections announced before the first
round of voting on October 15, but did not announce any new
names. We recommend the Department congratulate Correa on
his apparent victory on November 27; the Ambassador will call
Correa after that statement is issued. We recommend
postponing any presidential congratulatory call until after
results are official. End Summary.

Preliminary Results
-------------------

2. (U) Exit polls: Correa Noboa
--CEDATOS: 56.8 43.2
--Market: 57.9 42
--RTS/Teleamazonas: 57 43
--Consultar (Noboa-funded):36 42

3. (SBU) Quick counts:
--RTS/Teleamazonas: 56.35 43.65
(with 95.6% of sample)
--Citizen Participation: 56.40 43.60
(with 94.4% of sample)

4. (U) Official Count: No results reported from electoral
authorities (TSE) as of 10:00 pm on November 26. Official
results are due within 10 days. First round results took
over a week, but TSE officials hope to announce final results
by November 28 or 29.

5. (U) According to CEDATOS' exit poll/USAID-supported NGO
Citizen Participation's quick count, further breakdown of
results is as follows:
Correa Noboa
Coast (49.8% of population) 43.8/44.3 56.2/55.7
Highlands (44.9%) 70.8/68.7 29.2/31.3
Amazon (4.5%) 62.5/n/a 37.5/n/a

Rural: n/a/61.1 n/a/38.9
Urban: n/a/55.1 n/a/44.9

Null votes (Cedatos): 5.0%; Blank votes (Cedatos): 1.5%

Voting Goes Smoothly
--------------------

6. (U) Few incidents marred voting on November 26. As
usual, some voting booths were delayed in opening, due to the
tardiness of some volunteer election officials. Voting was
suspended in the canton of Portete, in Azuay province, where
protesters had blocked an access road with burning tires. An
individual posing as an election official in a Quito voting
station was identified by PAIS supporters and arrested;
another individual reportedly fled the scene. Also normal
were sporadic reports of multiple arrests for proselytizing
within voting stations, and more numerous arrests for
imbibing or selling alcohol during the election period
(violators are normally released after the dry period ends at
noon the day after elections).

7. (SBU) Embassy observers and media reported relatively low
turnout by voters in several areas (Cuenca, Azuay; Quininde,
Esmeraldas; Guayaquil) as of early afternoon. Hot
temperatures in Guayaquil may have affected turnout there.

8. (SBU) OAS election observation mission (EOM) Chief Rafael
Bielsa abruptly left Ecuador on November 25, after arriving

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in Guayaquil on November 24. An OAS statement claimed that
Bielsa had been called back to Washington to report on
election developments. Press here speculated about the
motives for Bielsa's departure. The OAS will issue a
statement about the electoral process on November 27. OAS
EOM Deputy Benamor (please protect) told us the OAS quick
count, using a small sample which will not be publicly
released, showed a 58/42 Correa victory. Results reported by
the Embassy's 19 volunteers observing as part of the EOM
correspond to the general trends reported by polling firms.

Reaction
--------

9. (U) Noboa immediately questioned the credibility of exit
poll results, pending official results from the TSE. He made
no claims of electoral fraud, but called on his party's
newly-elected congressional delegation to observe the
official count process in the provinces.

10. (U) An hour after the polls closed, Correa held a press
conference in which he declared victory ("David has slain
Goliath"), thanking his supporters, calling for national
unity and cooperation with Ecuadorians "with clean hands" and
pledging to "end the long sad night of neo-liberal policies."
Responding to questions, Correa repeated his general
campaign themes, including his opposition to an FTA with the
U.S. He expressed hopes for good relations with neighboring
Colombia, pledged to maintain dollarization, renegotiate
foreign debt, explore the possibility of re-joining OPEC, and
reaffirmed his earlier partial list of cabinet choices drawn
from key inner circle campaign advisors.

11. (U) Interviewed after quick count results were
announced, ex-president Lucio Gutierrez suggested that
Congress should be allowed time (up to six months) to act on
constitutional reforms. If Congress blocked needed political
reform, his party would join in support of convoking a
constituent assembly.

Comment and Recommendation
--------------------------

12. (SBU) Early results indicate a decisive win, reducing
the likelihood of post-electoral conflict. We do not expect
final results to differ much from Citizen Participation's
quick count, the most credible of all the polling
organizations in our view. The single anomalous result came
from the polling firm Consultar, which is in the direct
employ of Noboa and is not a credible source. If official
results confirm this early result, we would not expect
significant challenges or demonstrations from the Noboa camp.

13. (SBU) With results unlikely to change, we recommend the
Department issue or make a statement on November 27
congratulating Correa as the apparent victor, along the lines
of what was issued after the Morales victory in Bolivia. We
would gain points from many observers here for graciousness
in the face of what is widely assumed to be an undesired
result. Delaying such a statement would make us appear
grudging, and risks starting us off badly with the incoming
government to no benefit. The Ambassador proposes to
follow-up the Department's statement with a congratulatory
call to Correa on November 27. We recommend that a
presidential call be scheduled after results are official
(currently forecast for November 28 or 29.) Looking ahead,
we will seek to hold Correa to the more moderate rhetoric of
recent weeks. With very limited support from the new
congress, no alliances in place with major mayors or
provincial leaders and a wary business class, he faces far
from smooth sailing in his ability to pursue a radical
agenda.

14. (U) Suggested Press Statement
----------------------------------

The United States congratulates the People of Ecuador for
exercising their democratic rights at the polls and for
conducting peaceful elections.

While we are still awaiting the official results from
Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, preliminary results

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point to a victory by Rafael Correa during the November 26
second-round presidential election.

We offer our congratulations to Mr. Correa on his apparent
victory.

As we have said during previous conversations with Mr.
Correa, the United States will continue to build on its
successful cooperation with Ecuador, consistent with our
commitment to its democratic institutions and the prosperity
of its people.
JEWELL

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