Cablegate: Government Defeat in Chamber Vote May Foretell

VZCZCXRO0681
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #2578/01 3422000
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 082000Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7613
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5838
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4471
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6646
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5987
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 5995
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 3527
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 8835
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 002578

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT DEFEAT IN CHAMBER VOTE MAY FORETELL
SHAKY COALITION

1. (SBU) Summary. President Lula suffered a defeat in the
Chamber of Deputies on December 6 when his candidate to the
National Accounting Court, Federal Deputy Paulo Delgado, a
well-respected Workers Party (PT) deputy from Minas Gerais,
was soundly defeated by Federal Deputy Aroldo Cedraz (PFL -
Liberal Front Party ) Bahia state). Poloff spoke with
several deputies and journalists who unanimously agreed this
reveals significant weakness in the government's attempt to
construct a watertight coalition. They also thought the race
for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies, a job second
in line of succession to the president, is unpredictable.
Two traditions are set to clash: the largest party chooses
the president of the house, and the same party does not hold
both the Chamber and Senate presidencies. By most counts,
the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) will be the
largest party in both houses in the next Congress. The party
has not chosen its candidate yet. Federal Deputy Michel
Temer, PMDB president, told poloff the PMDB would not refrain
from running a candidate in the Chamber even though it is
well-positioned to hold on to the Senate presidency. Temer
also said he would be the candidate only if drafted. The
current Chamber President and Lula's declared favorite, Aldo
Rebelo, Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) from Sao Paulo, can
run again thanks to a December 7 Supreme Court ruling that
unanimously struck down the party threshold law that would
have disqualified him. But the leading coalition party, the
PT, put forward Arlindo Chinaglia, government leader in the
Chamber. The presidential palace promises there will be only
one government candidate in the end. End summary.

2. (SBU) Federal Deputies rebelled against the Lula
government on December 6 by electing Federal Deputy Aroldo
Cedraz to the National Accounting Court. Voting was by
secret ballot, as it always is, and afterward there were

SIPDIS
recriminations and accusations of betrayal, according to
press reports. Most finger-pointing by pro-government forces
was in the direction of the PMDB and the Liberal Party (PL).
(Note: The large but diffuse PMDB has both pro-Lula and
anti-Lula wings and is the biggest element in the coalition
Lula is trying to build. The small PL is supposedly
pro-Lula, but is unreliable. End note.) The victory was
interpreted by media analysts as revenge for the group around
Bahia's PFL Senator Antonio Carlos Magalhaes (the
"carlistas"), whose gubernatorial candidate, incumbent Paulo
Souto, suffered a humiliating and surprising defeat at the
hands of the PT's Jaques Wagner on October 1.

3. (SBU) The National Accounting Court (TCU) is not a true
court, but a fiscal oversight body with broad decisional and
advisory authority. Fernando Rodrigues, political affairs
writer for leading national daily Folha de Sao Paulo, told
poloff the TCU is shot through with partisanship, its
analyses are not reliable and its nine ministers, six of whom
are elected by Congress for life terms, are often senators or
federal deputies who failed in their reelection bids and are
then elected by their colleagues to carry on the partisan
battle in another forum. Cedraz is a "carlista" who was not
reelected in October.

4. (SBU) A number of coalition deputies had thrown their
hats in the ring for the TCU job, only to withdraw them later
to rally around Delgado, making his defeat even more of a
bitter pill, since it was clear from the numbers that many in
the government coalition had defected in the secret balloting.

5. (SBU) The defeat of the government's candidate now casts
doubt on whether the government can elect the Chamber
President, be it incumbent Aldo Rebelo or Arlindo Chinaglia
(PT), who is also the government leader in the Chamber. The
PT announced Chinaglia's candidacy just days ago, to the
apparent annoyance of the presidential palace, which firmly
backs Rebelo. The PMDB, although part of the coalition, will
almost certainly also run a candidate instead of backing
Rebelo. The coalition's cohesiveness is in doubt. Federal
Deputies Pauderney Avelino (PFL - Amazonas), Andre De Paula
(PFL- Pernambuco), and journalist Fernando Rodrigues told
poloff that Rebelo will be named Minister of Defense if he
loses.

6. (SBU) Poloff spoke on December 6 with Deputy De Paula
about the Chamber presidency before the TCU vote. He said it
is unlikely the PMDB could win the Chamber presidency because

BRASILIA 00002578 002 OF 002

of the tradition that the same party does not hold the
presidency of both houses of Congress, and the Senate
President, Renan Calheiros (PMDB), is steadfastly determined
to retain the post and has President Lula's full support. De
Paula thinks Chinaglia has a good chance of being elected.

7. (SBU) The Senate presidency traditionally goes to the
party with the largest delegation, which by number of sitting
senators is the now the PMDB. The second largest, the PFL,
just nominated Jose Agripino Maia, of Rio Grande do Norte, to
run for the Presidency and the PSDB has pledged to back him.
(Note: There is no unanimity over which is the largest party
because there are two ways of counting, by winning parties on
election day, or by current party membership of sitting
senators, whether principals or alternates. By the first
method the PFL is the largest, by the second, the PMDB.) De
Paula said he did not think Agripino's candidacy was viable
through February 2, when voting takes place. The swing votes
may be in the smaller parties and the six PMDB senators who
have declared themselves independent or in opposition, but it
may be several weeks before the picture is clearer.

8. (SBU) Comment: The PMDB is flexing its muscles and
reminding the government it must be reckoned with. With 89
deputies, it has the largest Chamber delegation, it won seven
governorships -- more than any other party -- and is arguably
the largest party in the Senate. But the PMDB is, in the
words of PMDB maverick Jarbas Vasconcelos, a "sack of cats,"
riven by internal divisions, with six senators openly
independent or in opposition, and a tradition of choices
based on spoils. As a whole, it is a sack of cats that
always lands on its feet. The Cedraz case reveals that the
PMDB and other coalition parties are not reliably in the
government camp. Andre de Paula told poloff that Lula said
he will not make cabinet decisions until after the Congress
elects the leaders on February 2, and Lula is therefore
exerting unfair and corrupting pressure on the parties to
make the "right" choices. Lula may have great difficulty
maintaining discipline in the coalition and getting the PMDB
to cooperate, and it may come at great cost in terms of
cabinet level appointments.

9. (SBU) Comment, continued. The unanimous Supreme Court
decision to strike down the party threshold law is a
lifesaver for scores of politicians. The members of Congress
elected from the smaller parties had been nicknamed "zombies"
because they were to lose so many political rights. Some
parties had already merged in order to retain their full
rights. Many people hoped the party threshold law would
eliminate the conditions that led to massive corruption in
Lula's first term, when bribery was the glue that held the
small mercenary and non-ideological parties in the coalition.
But now the rules will remain unchanged and Lula wills till
need some sort of glue to keep the coalition together. End
comment.

CHICOLA

© Scoop Media