Cablegate: Kenya Poll Results: Kibaki's Rating Up, but Not A

VZCZCXYZ0025
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #5231 3451346
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111346Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5988
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 8996
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY 5009
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI PRIORITY 4479
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY 1734
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2091
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 2061
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS NAIROBI 005231

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV KCOR KE
SUBJECT: KENYA POLL RESULTS: KIBAKI'S RATING UP, BUT NOT A
SURE BET FOR 2007

REF: A. NAIROBI 5207

B. NAIROBI 5129

This message is Sensitive But Unclassified. Please handle
accordingly.

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A recent national opinion poll shows that
more Kenyans approve of President Kibaki than earlier in the
year. However, although Kibaki came out far in front of a
field of six leading opposition candidates, he did not fare
as well in head-to-head races, in particular against
prominent Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya leader Kalonzo
Musyoka. Below is a summary of the results of the USAID
supported International Republican Institute poll. Due to
their sensitivity, the head-to-head numbers were not publicly
released. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) An International Republican Institute (IRI) poll,
conducted across Kenya from November 3-6, revealed increased
positive sentiments among Kenyans about the government and
President Kibaki since June, but also showed that Kibaki's
strong rating depends on how the opposition is configured.
After an extended bad patch - November 2005's referendum
defeat, February's public exposure of massive corruption
scandals, and the Standard raids in March - the President
received a boost. His October 20 Kenyatta day speech was
very well-received, and the poll, conducted less than two
weeks later, shows the President's image had improved by
November. In June, 46.5% of respondents felt the country was
moving in the right direction; this number increased to 59.5%
in November. Other performance indicators showed a similar
upswing: government job approval rating was 55.7% in June and
67.3% in November and the percentage choosing "done well" for
the government election promises rating increased from 44.7%
to 57.8% in November.

3. (SBU) Although it is widely held that President Kibaki
stands a good chance of winning the presidency again, the
poll results show a more nuanced calculus among voters. When
asked to choose between Kibaki and a slate of six leading
opposition candidates, 41.6% of respondents chose Kibaki as
their preferred presidential candidate (compared to 30.7% in
June). The next nearest candidate (in both June and
November) was Kalonzo Musyoka with 20.2% (down from 24.4% in
June). However, when Kenyans were asked if the election were
held today (in November) and the choice was between Kibaki
and another candidate, the President still fares well against
all candidates but one: opposition front-runner and Orange
Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K) leader Kalonzo Musyoka. In
the November survey, 49.7% percent of Kenyans selected
Musyoka compared to 48.2% for Kibaki (Note: the head-to-head
results were not publicly released per IRI policy. END
NOTE.)

4. (SBU) Parliament's approval rating also grew from 39.6%
in June to 49.3% in November. When asked about their own
MPs' performance, however, respondents did not report
progress. The number approving was virtually the same over
the period: 43.9% and 44.2%. Also unchanged was Kenyans'
plans not to send their MPs to Nairobi again: less than 40%
think their MP deserves to be re-elected. Although
respondents had strong views on corruption (only half thought
the government was committed to fighting it, unchanged from
June) fewer than 10 percent cited it as the most important
issue in Kenya (also unchanged from June). Creating
employment and poverty reduction were chosen as the top two
issues.

5. (SBU) COMMENT: The head-to-head results reveal the
difference in voters' minds between Kibaki facing a united
opposition behind a single contender, and a field of
candidates -- if the elections were held today. There is
nearly a year to go, however, before the general election,
and a few missteps by either side can make a great deal of
difference. Since the poll was conducted, the government has
been accused of monkeying with Kenya's political parties
(reftels) - an unpalatable throw back to the old days for
many Kenyans which may again hurt Kibaki's image. IRI, which
has a credible polling track record in Kenya, is scheduled to
conduct its next survey in February 2007. END COMMENT.
RANNEBERGER

© Scoop Media