Cablegate: Politics & Religious Identity in Kenya

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FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KE KISL PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: POLITICS & RELIGIOUS IDENTITY IN KENYA

REF: A. NAIROBI 424
B. 06 NAIROBI 5388
C. 06 NAIROBI 5393
D. 06 NAIROBI 5112

Note: Reftels discuss ethnicity and politics in Kenya. End
Note.

1. (SBU) Summary: We estimate Kenya's religious demographics
at 80 percent Christian, 10 percent Muslim and 10 percent
followers of traditional African religions and other faiths.
In the past, significant numbers of Kenyan voters have
responded to appeals by their religious leaders to rise above
ethnic identity in support of political positions of their
faith community. Religious identity over time erodes the
overwhelming influence of ethnicity on Kenyan politics.
Signs of increasing tensions over political issues between
Kenya's Christian majority and small, but vocal, Muslim
minority are cause for concern. End Summary.

2. (SBU) While estimates of Kenya's religious demographics
vary widely, our close examination of the best available
population data indicates a split of 80 percent Christian, 10
percent Muslim and 10 percent followers of traditional
African religions and other faiths. Attempts to organize
explicitly Christian and Muslim political parties have not
succeeded. Political mobilization is typically accomplished
through ethnic and regional identities. Certain religious
leaders and organizations have notable political influence
concerning specific issues and so are courted by politicians.

3. (SBU) The Inter-Religious Council of Kenya brings together
Christian, Muslim and Hindu leaders, but has a very limited
public profile, seldom commenting on current affairs. At the
local level, religious leaders of various faiths and
denominations often work together to address common issues of
concern, such as calming ethnic or religious tensions.

Muslim Kenya: Divided ethnically, regionally and politically

4. (SBU) Estimates of Kenya's Muslim population range as low
as 8 percent and as high as 25 percent. We are convinced
that 10 percent is the most accurate estimate. The Muslim
population consists of four ethnic/regional divisions,
discussed below. These four divisions normally unite over
specific issues of Islamic identity, but otherwise go their
own way politically.

5. (SBU) Coastal Muslims make up approximately 60 percent of
Kenya's Muslim population and 6 percent of Kenya's overall
population. They account for approximately 50 percent of the
population of Coast province. This community is ethnically
mixed and divided amongst competing sects and tendencies.
These various ethnicities, sects and tendencies usually unite
over issues of common concern, although they contend against
one another for leadership positions in mosques and Muslim
associations. Coastal Muslims dominate leadership positions
in Kenya's two main Muslim associations, the Supreme Council
of Kenyan Muslims (SUPKEM) and the Council of Imams and
Preachers of Kenya (CIPK).

6. (SBU) The Kenyan Somali population, centered on North East
province but with a substantial Nairobi-based component,
accounts for about 20 percent of Kenya's Muslim population
and 2 percent of Kenya's overall population. They are
overwhelmingly Sunni and have both a traditionalist/Sufi camp
and a Wahabist/radical camp. Of the 10 percent of top
government positions held by Muslims, Somalis predominate.

7. (SBU) The Borana (Oromo) and the closely related Orma and
Gabra make up another division of Kenya's Muslim community.
These Cushitic peoples live in remote and sparsely populated
north central Kenya. Their communities include a significant
minority of Christians and traditionalists. They make up
about 10 percent of Kenya's Muslim population and about 1
percent of Kenya's overall population. They tend not to
identify closely with fellow Muslims from elsewhere in Kenya,
due largely to their isolation. They are heterodox in their
Islamic beliefs and practices, mixing many elements of
traditional belief.

8. (SBU) The final 10 percent of Kenya's Muslim community
consists of small Muslim minorities among the predominantly
Christian Kamba, Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin, and Rendille,
among others. It also includes Nairobi's Nubian community
(Sudanese origin) and Muslim members of the South Asian
community outside Coast province. Also included here are
Kenya's Ismaili Muslim community, which is small, but
influential due to its charitable activities and strong

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presence in Kenyan commerce and media (the Nation group).
The Ismailis are a moderate branch of Shi'a Islam led by a
hereditary imam, the "Aga Khan."

9. (SBU) Given the ethnic and regional cleavages noted above,
no Muslim religious leader commands national influence among
all Kenyan Muslims. The two most influential leaders are
Professor Abdul Ghafar Busaidy, Chairman of SUPKEM, and
Sheikh Mohammed Dor, Organizing Secretary of CIPK. They are
both from Coast province and so have little influence with
Somalis in North East province or Boranas in Eastern province
and only limited influence with Nairobi's Muslim community.

10. (SBU) The Muslim leadership attempts to mobilize the
Muslim community around certain key issues, such as
preservation of "Khadi courts" (courts that decide issues of
personal status according to Shari'a law) and opposition to
some anti-terrorism measures (claimed to be discriminatory).
This mobilization is fairly effective on the coast, somewhat
less so in Nairobi and generally ineffective elsewhere.
Kenyan Muslims often complain of harassment by security
officials on false suspicions of holding "terrorist
connections" or sympathies. SUPKEM and CIPK, along with a
host of smaller, more radical groups, and Muslim NGOs (which
receive substantial support from donors in Arab countries),
often hold rallies to protest perceived anti-Muslim
international events, such as conflict in the Middle East or
recent events in Somalia. The United States is almost always
cited during these demonstrations for various alleged
anti-Muslim offenses.

11. (SBU) SUPKEM at times makes demands on the government to
address specific issues, and threatens to withhold support
should these demands not be met. Past practice, however,
indicates that, as concerns electoral politics, Muslim voters
listen more to their ethnic and regional community leaders
than to their religious leaders. Normally, all candidates
contesting elections in Muslim majority districts are
Muslims.

Christian Kenya: Organizing for Coordinated Engagement

12. (SBU) Kenyan official national identity is largely
Christian. Kenyan national public events typically open and
close with a Christian prayer and include Christian
references throughout the ceremony, without a nod to fellow
Kenyans who follow other faiths. Major political figures are
publicly favored by specific church leaders. Christian
leaders regularly speak out on political issues. Most church
leaders do not hesitate to instruct their flocks on how to
vote. It is common practice for ministers to yield their
pulpit to favored politicians during worship services.
Certain Christian leaders are able to attract larger and more
enthusiastic crowds of supporters than can any of Kenya's
political leaders.

13. (SBU) Roughly 58 percent of Kenyan Christians are
Protestant and the remaining 42 percent are Catholics (the
single largest Christian denomination in Kenya present
throughout the country). The most prestigious and
influential Protestant churches are the Presbyterians, the
Anglicans, the Methodists and the African Inland Church. The
Baptists also have a substantial following. Of growing
importance, especially in cities, are the large number of
small independent Pentecostal and "revivalist" churches.

14. (SBU) Of the 18 most influential Christian leaders in
Kenya (all denominations), seven are Kikuyu and two others
are from the closely related Embu and Meru communities.
Thus, while the Kikuyu/Embu/Meru make up 32 percent of
Kenya's population, they account for 50 percent of top
Christian leaders.

15. (SBU) The Catholic hierarchy in Kenya is widely perceived
to be pro-government (President Kibaki is Catholic), despite
the opposition of the Catholic Episcopal Conference to the
government's draft constitution (see below). Catholic
Archbishop Okoth of Kisumu is widely considered a supporter
of fellow ethnic Luo Raila Odinga, a prominent opposition
leader.

16. (SBU) There are three main Christian interdenominational
organizations in Kenya. The National Council of Churches of
Kenya (NCCK) brings together all the mainline Protestant
churches. The NCCK was considered anti-Government during the
Moi era. NCCK leaders were outspoken on human rights issues
and at the forefront of the movement for multiparty
democracy. Today, NCCK is not clearly identified as pro- or
anti-government, although several former NCCK leaders now

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serve in senior posts in the Kibaki administration. The
Evangelical Alliance of Kenya (EAK) was prominently
pro-government in the Moi era. Among its member churches is
the African Inland Church, of which Moi is a staunch member.
EAK took the position during Moi's rein that churches should
stay out of politics. These days, EAK leaders join NCCK
leaders and the Catholic Episcopal Conference in advocating
certain political positions while not identifying with a
particular party. The Organization of African Independent
Churches (OAIC) does not engage in political activity,
although some of its member churches do. The OAIC represents
independent African churches, mostly of a strongly
charismatic bent.

17. (SBU) A perceived threat from Kenya's small but vocal
Muslim community is the greatest spur to interdenominational
Christian political activism in Kenya. During the run up to
the November 2005 national referendum on the draft
constitution, the NCCK, EAK and the Catholic Episcopal
Conference all publicly opposed the draft constitution on the
grounds that it included provisions for "Khadi Courts" to
rule on personal status questions for Muslims. They objected
that the constitution should not provide institutions for one
religious community denied to others. While Kenya's
Protestant and Catholic leaders had worked together to
promote reconciliation among warring ethnic communities, they
had not previously collaborated on a national political
issue. "The Christian vote" played a major part in the
success of the anti-draft constitution forces in the
referendum vote. The concerns regarding the Muslim community
that led to the political position of the Christian churches
during the referendum vote have not dissipated.

Traditional Kenya & Others: Not Politically Engaged

18. (SBU) About 10 percent of Kenyans are adherents of
traditional African religions. They are found in small
numbers among nearly all of Kenya's ethnic communities. They
are not formally organized and have very little public voice
and practically no political influence.

19. (SBU) Kenya's Hindu and Sikh communities possess
prominent places of worship in Nairobi and Mombasa, but their
numbers are very small relative to the general population
(less than one-half of one percent). They are, however,
politically influential out of proportion to their numbers
due to their strong presence in Kenyan commerce and habit of
financing Kenyan politicians. Kenya also has a Baha'i
community (about 100,000 members) and a Jewish community
(about 100 Kenyans and 300 expatriate members), neither of
which engages in politics.

Comment: Religious Identity Contributes toward the Slow
Erosion of the Ethnic Factor in Kenyan Politics

20. (SBU) In the past, significant numbers of Kenyan voters
have responded to appeals by their religious leaders to rise
above ethnic identity in support of political positions of
their faith community. Religious identity over time erodes
the overwhelming influence of ethnicity on Kenyan politics.

21. (SBU) Signs of increasing tensions over political issues
between Kenya's Christian majority and Muslim minority are
cause for concern. The government is regularly accused by
SUPKEM leaders of possessing an anti-Muslim bias while
Christian leaders often complain of government "pandering" to
the Muslim leadership. Kenyan society would be well served
by a more activist Inter-Religious Council of Kenya to
promote peaceful coexistence and mutual understanding. We
will advocate a more proactive stance by the Inter-Religious
Council during our discussions with its leadership.
RANNEBERGER

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