Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 05/10/07

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 002102

SIPDIS

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DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/10/07

INDEX:

(1) Poll: 51% favor constitutional revision

(2) DPJ's Ozawa's strategy again suffers a setback with failure to
decide a joint candidate in talks with SDP for Upper House
representation in Oita Prefecture

(3) Upper House election in 2007: Postwar generation of LDP
lawmakers split over whether Abe should take reform line or
conservative policy

(4) Upper House election: Support organizations undergoing change;
DPJ seeking support from agricultural cooperatives, religious
circles; LDP approaching coops

(5) Former Prime Minister Koizumi may resume diplomatic activities

(6) Rumor that Vice Foreign Minister Yachi is most likely candidate
to serve as chief of the secretariat of Japanese version of NSC

ARTICLES:

(1) Poll: 51% favor constitutional revision

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 1) (Full)
May 3, 2007

Ahead of May 3 Constitution Day, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun conducted
a public opinion survey. In the survey, a total of 51% answered that
the Constitution should be amended, with 35% saying they would like
the Constitution to be upheld as is. As seen from these figures,
constitutional revision proponents outnumbered opponents. The survey
also asked respondents to pick one or more problems about the
Constitution. In response to this question, 29% answered that the
Constitution stipulates nothing to meet the changing times, allowing
for establishing environmental rights, including the right to enjoy
a better environment, and privacy rights, such as the right to
self-determination on private information. This answer topped all
other answers. Among other answers, 22% said Constitution Article 9,
which stipulates Japan's war renunciation, is no longer realistic.

In 2000, the Diet set up a research commission on the Constitution
in its lower and upper chambers. Since then, the Nihon Keizai
Shimbun has asked the same question. However, the proportion of
those in favor of revising the Constitution has been on the decline.
In the survey this time, their proportion was down 3 percentage
points from the last survey conducted two years ago on the
Constitution. Meanwhile, the proportion of opponents to
constitutional revision was up 6 points.

A national referendum bill, which stipulates procedures for
constitutional revision, is expected to get through the Diet
shortly, and constitutional revision has now become more likely.
However, the general public appears to have become somewhat
cautious.

The survey was taken by Nikkei Research Inc. on April 27-29 over the
telephone on a random digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey,
samples were chosen from among men and women aged 20 and over across
the nation. A total of 1,559 households with one or more voters were
sampled, and answers were obtained from 865 persons (55.5% ).

TOKYO 00002102 002 OF 007

(2) DPJ's Ozawa's strategy again suffers a setback with failure to
decide a joint candidate in talks with SDP for Upper House
representation in Oita Prefecture

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
May 10, 2007

Muryu Yamada, Daihaku Kasai

The major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto or DPJ)
yesterday gave up on the plan to field a unified candidate with the
minor opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the Oita
constituency for Upper House representation. With both parties'
prefectural chapters insisting on fielding their respective
candidates, the Minshuto leadership concluded that there would be no
election cooperation in the Oita constituency. Minshuto and the SDP
intend to field a joint candidate in the Akita and Toyama
constituencies. In the Okinawa constituency, opposition parties are
expected to back a joint candidate, but the failure in election
cooperation in the Oita constituency has come as a setback to
Minshuto President Ichiro Ozawa, who is in pursuit of cooperation
among the opposition parties, following his party's defeat in the
Upper House by-election in Okinawa last month.

Failure in fielding a joint candidate in Oita may affect other
constituencies

"I failed to pick a joint candidate," Ozawa said yesterday at a
press briefing in party headquarters and revealed his chagrin.
Coordination began last year behind the scenes to field a joint
candidate in the Oita constituency but the efforts for coordination
ran into trouble later. Oita Prefecture was the home prefecture of
former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama (former head of the SDP),
and perhaps for that reason, the region is the SDP's strong
electoral turf. In this past February, the SDP's Oita chapter
decided to support a medical doctor, Bunroku Matsumoto (64).
Meanwhile, Minshuto's chapter announced it would support Taiwa Yano
(50), a former official working for the Saeki city government in
Oita Prefecture to counter the SDP's move. SDP President Mizuho
Fukushima already implied the possibility of reviewing overall
election cooperation with Minshuto.

Meeting the press, Ozawa emphasized that the party leadership would
neither adopt Yano as an authorized candidate nor recommend him.
Ozawa explained, "We won't bind the prefectural chapter whoever it
backs," in effect hinting that he would accept the failure of
coordination on election cooperation in Oita. Yesterday noon, Ozawa
telephoned SDP Secretary-General Seiji Mataichi and told him: "Our
party will not have our own candidate. You may feel dissatisfied,
but I hope you will understand this."

In the coordination process for fielding a joint candidate in Oita,
Ozawa himself took pains to engage in the process, out of concern
that his "strategy" aimed at reversing the positions of the ruling
and opposition parties by taking advantage of the upcoming Upper
House election would otherwise collapse if he failed to continue
election cooperation among opposition parties. But Minshuto's Oita
chapter refused to entrust coordination to Ozawa. On April 25,
Matsumoto and Yano were both called to Tokyo, and both were
persuaded by Ozawa and Mataichi in their last-ditch effort, but
their effort failed.

In Minshuto, a move is growing to seek to pursue the party's

TOKYO 00002102 003 OF 007

identity instead of election cooperation in part because the joint
candidate backed by opposition parties was defeated in the recent
Upper House by-election in Okinawa. Yesterday, Mataichi told
reporters, "I think this failure must not affect (election
cooperation in other constituencies), but the question lies with how
each constituency will take the failure," implying the possibility
that the failure will have an adverse effect on a united front among
opposition parties, possibly widening the rift among opposition
parties over election cooperation.

(3) Upper House election in 2007: Postwar generation of LDP
lawmakers split over whether Abe should take reform line or
conservative policy

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Slightly abridged)
May 10, 2007

The postwar generation of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members
have begun to move in an effort to make the Abe administration a
full-scale administration.

Lower House member Nobuhiro Oumiya suggested to LDP Federation of
Diet Members for Acceleration of Reform Chairman Yasufumi Tanahashi,
former science and technology minister, on the afternoon of May 8:
"Why don't we discuss what we should do to become lawmakers who are
respected by the people?" Tanahashi replied: "Let's discuss the
issue, including future options for the House of Councillors, prior
to the Upper House election."

By activating debates on reforms among mid-ranking and junior
lawmakers, Tanahashi aims to underscore the image of Prime Minister
Abe eagerly tackling reforms.

Tanahashi has been elected to the House of Representatives four
times. Encouraged by freshman lawmakers, including Oumiya, he
assumed the chairmanship of the reform panel last December. About
100 middle-ranking or junior lawmakers are members, and former Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi has joined it as an advisor.

When the panel was established, the support rating for the Abe
administration kept going down due to its decision to reinstate
so-called postal rebels in the party. Freshman lawmakers known as
"Koizumi children" were worried about the outcome of the Upper House
election, one member saying: "If the situation is left unattended,
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) will surely defeat the LDP."

Tanahashi highly evaluates Abe's efforts on party reform when he was
acting secretary general and secretary general. The Tsushima
faction, to which Tanahashi belongs, is also the home for Defense
Agency Director General Fukushiro Nukaga, who has prime ministerial
ambitions, as well. Tanahashi thinks that the faction should now
support Abe and not move for the sake of factional interests. He has
said to party members: "Middle-ranking and junior members serve as
the engine for reforms. If we advocate reforms, Mr. Abe will surely
respond.

On the Abe-proposed idea of setting up a new human resource agency
for public servants, an issue that split the LDP, Tanahashi made
efforts to build up support for the idea.

Tanahashi said: "In order to move reform plans forward, a long-term
administration is necessary. It is absolutely necessary for the
ruling coalition to maintain its majority in the Upper House

TOKYO 00002102 004 OF 007

election and make the Abe administration a long-lasting one."

Tanahashi belongs to the successor generation to Abe. He seems to be
motivated to wait for his turn to come, while pushing ahead with
generational change under Prime Minister Abe.

Abe installed Yoshihide Suga and other members in the Federation of
Diet Members for the Second Chance Program, which worked to boost
support for Abe in the LDP presidential election last September, to
key ministerial posts. A certain cabinet minister grumbled: "The
Tanahashi-led panel might be aiming at ministerial posts in a
personnel reshuffle to be carried out after the Upper House
election."

On the other hand, Lower House member Keiji Furuya of the LDP will
soon launch a parliamentary group to promote a values-oriented
diplomacy, with the aim of supporting the assertive diplomacy as
advocated by Abe. About 20 conservatives, including Lower House
members Kyoko Nishikawa and Kenichi Mizuno, plan to join the
Furuya-headed new group. Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi
Nakagawa, a friend of Abe, will become an advisor.

Furuya is one of the postal rebels who were reinstated in the party
last December. He has served as six terms in the Lower House, and he
was ahead of Abe at Seikei University. Both have worked together in
dealing with the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by North
Korean agents.

Furuya is concerned that Abe has tried to contain his conservative
favor since assuming the prime minister's post. A mid-ranking
official of the Ibuki faction also said: "Mr. Abe has been quite a
different person since he came into office. On the Yasukuni Shrine
issue and policy toward China, I am not fully satisfied with his
responses." The members of the Furuya-led parliamentary group are
determined to speak for Abe. Tanahashi and former Posts and
Communications Minister Seiko Noda, both of whom come from Gifu, his
electoral district, once served as cabinet minister, though their
numbers of elections are fewer than his. Bearing this in mind,
Furuya also seems to be aiming at entering the cabinet by making
efforts to give the administration a boost.

Will Abe take over Koizumi reforms as his successor or assume the
role of flag-bearer for conservatism? Middle-ranking and junior LDP
members expect Abe to take a different policy line. Attention is
being focused on which course he would take in the reshuffle after
the Upper House election.

(4) Upper House election: Support organizations undergoing change;
DPJ seeking support from agricultural cooperatives, religious
circles; LDP approaching coops

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
May 10, 2007

Ichiro Ozawa, head of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or
Minshuto), made his appeal to the audience at the first meeting of
the campaign headquarters held at the party headquarters yesterday:
"There are only two months and a half left until the Upper House
election. We must do our best just as we did when the election was
officially announced." The DPJ is ready to stake its fate on 29
single-seat constituencies, which are now part of the stronghold of
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The proportion of farm
households is high in those districts.

TOKYO 00002102 005 OF 007

Makes big leap-forward advance in isolate islands

DPJ Headquarters in late April received a letter of protest noting:
"Agricultural cooperatives are in a chaotic state. This could affect
future campaigns."

The sender was the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA). The
complaint was about the questionnaires the LDP Agricultural
Cooperatives Reform Headquarters headed by Masahiko Yamada) sent in
early April to agricultural cooperatives bypassing JA. The
questionnaires asked questions upsetting JA, including the propriety
of disclosing information on the use of subsidies granted to
agricultural cooperatives and their political neutrality.

There are about 9 million JA members throughout the nation. Ozawa
during the meeting yesterday harshly criticized JA, noting, "JA has
become overgrown, producing a harmful effect. I want it to return to
the starting point and have the party render services to farmers."

There are signs of changes taking place. In the Nagasaki Prefectural
Assembly members' election, the DPJ made a good show in a
constituency to which Yamada belongs, especially in areas including
isolated islands. Yamada analyzed the result: "Our party's
agricultural policy, such as an income compensation system for each
farm household, has filtered down among farmers." He will shortly
establish an agricultural policy forum bringing together former JA
officials from all over the country.

Shinshuren to recommend DPJ candidate for first time in 18 years

Yoshito Sengoku, who called for the establishment of the DPJ
Buddhist Lawmakers' League (BLL), chaired by Secretary General Yukio
Hatoyama, made a speech at its inauguration ceremony, "It is a major
event for Japanese political circles that religious circles and the
DPJ have established a relationship like this." The secretary
general of the Japan Buddhist Federation (JBF) was seen standing by
him. The JBF is joined by 102 religious sects and groups, including
the Soto sect and the Jodo shin sect, which account for
approximately 90% of temples throughout the nation. The DPJ for the
first time recommended a priest belonging to the Honganji-ha of the
Jodo shin sect, which is said to have many DPJ supporters. The JBF
will likely support the DPJ in the upcoming Upper House election.
One senior BLL official has analyzed, "Dissatisfaction with the
LDP-New Komeito administration is mounting in religious circles due
to its proposal to amend to the Constitution and the Yasukuni shrine
issue."

The New Federation of Japanese Religious Organizations (Shinshuren)
with membership of 69 religious groups will recommend a DPJ
candidate in the Upper House election. This is the first time for it
to do so since the one in 1989.

LDP pins hopes on secret party members

The LDP is also doing its utmost. A meeting with the Pal System
Federation was held at LDP Headquarters on Apr. 18. The Pal System
is a home delivery service of food operated by the Cooperative
Association. One senior LDP official said, "Coops have the image of
being close to the DPJ or the Japanese Communist Party. However, LDP
supporters also shop at coops." The membership of the Coop
Association in seven prefectures and Tokyo totals 1 million. Kazuaki
Miyaji, head of LDP Party Organizational Headquarters, is trying to

TOKYO 00002102 006 OF 007

lure senior coop officials, saying, "We hope we can hold talks with
each block of coops throughout the nation."

Postal organizations, which appear to have given up on the LDP, are
showing moves to swing back to it. About 30% of special postmasters
are said to be hereditary postmasters who privately own post office
buildings. Some special postmasters who do not want to be
transferred to other areas have begun to appeal to the LDP for help.
A source related to postal policy said, "There should be quite a
number of special postmasters who are LDP members."

(5) Former Prime Minister Koizumi may resume diplomatic activities

SENTAKU (Page 44) (Full)
May 2007

Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reportedly will return to
the center of the diplomatic stage after the House of Councillors
election in July. He has shied away from the government of Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe, saying, "Prime Minister Abe should carry out
his own diplomacy as he likes." Abe has placed priority on diplomacy
toward China, South Korea, and the United States. Koizumi,
therefore, appears to want to complement Abe's foreign policy by
carrying out diplomacy toward the Middle East, which Japan has put
aside, and toward the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), where he achieved results.

Koizumi reportedly has said that he would like to be made an "envoy"
to lay the groundwork for Abe's diplomacy at the ASEAN summit to be
held later this year. He also wants to exchange views with the
leaders of ASEAN and Middle East, as well as economic officials. One
of Abe's brain-trust advisors said, "I wish he would not meddle in
our business."

(6) Rumor that Vice Foreign Minister Yachi is most likely candidate
to serve as chief of the secretariat of Japanese version of NSC

SENTAKU (Page 45) (Full)
May 2007

Under the auspices of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the government aims
to create a Japanese version of National Security Council (NSC) next
April. The rumor is that Administrative Vice Foreign Minister
Shoichi Yachi is the most likely candidate for chief of the
secretariat of the planned NSC. The reason for the rumor is that

SIPDIS
"Yachi, as Abe's brain-trust advisor on foreign policy, is most
trusted in the government office district of Kasumigaseki," said a
source familiar with the Prime Minister's Official Residence
(Kantei). Another reason is that at the prime minister's direction
Yachi's retirement was extended for a year until next March.

The secretariat, which would become the think tank of the NSC, will
be composed of 10 to 20 government staff and political appointees
from the private sector. It is responsible for analyzing economic
and energy issues by policy and foreign policy with China and North
by region so that it will come up with Japan's mid- and long-term
national strategy. All the more because the secretariat of NSC will
have great influence in order to set the direction of Japan's
national strategy, the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry and
the National Police Agency are reportedly having a close contest
behind closed doors in order to secure the post of chief of the
secretariat.

SIPDIS

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