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Cablegate: National Democratic Institute Poll From Gaza And

VZCZCXRO4209
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHJM #1562 2081141
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271141Z JUL 07
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8505
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0195
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 6663
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 001562

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, MEPI AND IPA. NSC FOR
ABRAMS/WATERS/SINGH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMPI KDEM PREL PGOV PHUM KPAL IS
SUBJECT: NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE POLL FROM GAZA AND
THE WEST BANK


1. Summary. According to a July 8 - 15 National Democratic
Institute (NDI) poll, Palestinians disapprove of the Hamas
takeover in Gaza, support early PLC and Presidential
elections, want to see Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, and
believe that Fatah is reforming itself. Marwan Barghouthi is
the political figure respondants viewed most favorably, with
Mustafa Bargouthi, Salaam Fayyad, Mahmoud Abbas, and Ismail
Haniyeh all enjoying significant support as well. End Summary.

2. From July 8-15, NDI conducted a poll in Gaza and the West
Bank to identify popular views on key political issues
following Hamas' takeover of Gaza. NDI is implementing a
Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) program focused on
political party reform and this poll will inform programming
and future focus groups. Through Alpha, a local polling firm,
1000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank were contacted by
phone. The sample size disproportionately represented Gazans.

3. Full poll data divided by districts and with cross
tabulation by gender and age was emailed to NEA/IPA and
NEA/PI. Below are some of the poll,s key findings:

- 73 percent of those polled hold a "very favorable" or
"somewhat favorable" view of Abu Mazen; 94 percent for Marwan
Barghouthi; 90 percent for Mustafa Barghouthi; 76 percent for
Salam Fayyad; 63 percent for Ismael Hania; and 51 percent for
Khaled Meshal;

- 75 percent of those polled support early PLC elections and
76 percent support early Presidential elections. A
significant portion of those polled (36 percent) would vote
for a third party if elections were held today. 42 percent
support Fatah, and 20 percent support Hamas.

- 61 percent of those polled say the emergency government is
legal (32 percent do not); 61 percent support the emergency
government (36 percent do not)

- 78.5 percent of those polled disapprove of the way Hamas
gained control of Gaza. 75 percent want to see Fatah and
Hamas begin unconditional negotiations with each other. 54
percent do not think the emergency government will be able to
resolve the situation in Gaza.

- 66 percent of those polled believe that Fatah is in the
process of reforming itself.

- 23.5 percent of those polled support a two-state solution,
7.5 percent support a bi-national state, and 65 percent
support "a Palestinian state on all the Palestinian land."

- 41 percent of those polld believe that Hamas is committed
to fighting coruption while 30 percent think that Fatah is
commtted to fighting corruption. 48 percent think thatFatah
will improve their quality of life, 24 perent believe that
Hamas will, and 17 percent thin that no one will.

4. Comment: This was a telepone poll, and there are no local
studies on the ipact of that bias on the data. In addition,
in NI,s words, "there are no neutral pollsters in
Paestine." Multiple questioners were involved in asing the
poll's questions and there is no way of nowing what sort of
inflection was used in asking questions, etc. There are
significant conflicts n the polling data (approval of
leaders for examle). As with all polling data in the West
Bank ad Gaza, we recommend that the results be viewed wih
caution.


WALLES

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