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Cablegate: In Quick Count, Establishment Candidate Beats

VZCZCXRO4529
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJA #2156 2201044
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081044Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5709
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4195
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0981
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1310
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 3390
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0645
RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 0204
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHHJJPI/USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS JAKARTA 002156

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP
NSC FOR ECHU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL PINR ID
SUBJECT: IN QUICK COUNT, ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE BEATS
ISLAMIC PARTY CHALLENGER IN JAKARTA

REF: A. JAKARTA 2085

B. JAKARTA 1972

1. (U) According to a survey of 8000 voters by the well
regarded Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), Vice-Governor
Fauzi Bowo defeated former deputy police chief Adang
Daradjatun, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) candidate, 56
percent to 44 percent in Jakarta's August 8 gubernatorial
race. LSI reported a margin of error of plus or minus one
percent.

2. (U) Official results will be announced on August 18 and
the winner inaugurated to replace Governor Sutiyoso in
October. In the end, Fauzi's massive coalition of virtually
every mainstream political party appeared to have held off a
late surge by Adang and PKS, a well-organized Islamic party.
Despite the loss, political pundits expected PKS to spin the
respectable showing as a sign of the party's growth.

3. (U) The August 8 election unfolded peacefully and without
any reports of disturbances. The Jakarta metropolitan police
deployed 11,300 police across the city to maintain security
during the election and by all accounts, these measures
succeeded. According to the media, officials from both camps
expressed satisfaction with the transparency and integrity of
the polling practices. Embassy teams observed polling
stations throughout the city and reported no disturbances or
obvious signs of intimidation or coercion.

4. (U) As predicted, turnout for the election was low by
Indonesian standards (Note: In the 2004 parliamentary
election, 88 percent of eligible voters voted nationally.)
The respected Kompas newspaper estimated that only 60 percent
of registered Jakarta voters actually cast a ballot. As
outlined in reftels, conventional wisdom long held that voter
discontent with the limited options would translate into low
turnout.
HUME

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