Search

 

Cablegate: Duma Ready to Back Cfe Suspension, Chairman Says

VZCZCXRO5656
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #5092/01 2951043
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221043Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4767
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 4638
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 2490
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2795

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005092

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCFE PARM MARR WTRO IR KV RS
SUBJECT: DUMA READY TO BACK CFE SUSPENSION, CHAIRMAN SAYS


MOSCOW 00005092 001.2 OF 002


-------
SUMMARY
-------

1. (SBU) In a meeting with NSC Senior Director Warlick and
EUR DAS Kramer, International Affairs Committee Chairman
Kosachev underscored the Duma's support for the suspension of
CFE on December 12, absent a change in the U.S. position and
reiterated GOR opposition to any linkage to Istanbul
commitments. Kosachev suggested that Putin's leadership of
United Russia did not guarantee a constitutional majority for
the ruling party, but did spell the end for Just Russia.
Kosachev underscored the Duma's readiness to move forward on
outstanding WTO-related legislation, support for negotiations
with Iran, and rejection of a U.S.-driven timeline for
Kosovo's independence. End Summary.

--------------
CFE SUSPENSION
--------------

2. (SBU) In a meeting with NSC Senior Director Warlick and
EUR DAS Kramer on October 10, Duma International Affairs
Committee Chairman Kosachev outlined the legislative steps
involved in Russia's proposed December 12 "suspension" of the
CFE Treaty. Kosachev said the Duma will discuss the CFE
treaty suspension in a plenary session likely to take place
the first week of November. This follows committee hearings
held September 19 and a decision in support of suspension
taken on October 10. A Duma resolution calling for suspension
of the treaty will go to the Federation Council for
ratification and then to the President for signature. The
Duma action follows a 150-day period from the day on which
President Putin issued the decree to suspend the treaty (July
13). Kosachev saw little room for maneuver and said changes
to Russia's current position would only occur if the U.S.
changed its position. "If nothing happens from the U.S. side,
then Russia will suspend."

---------------------------
CFE AND ISTANBUL AGREEMENTS
---------------------------

3. (SBU) Kosachev reiterated the GOR stance that the Istanbul
Commitments of 1999 are not linked to CFE. All issues
concerning Georgia are "completely settled," including
withdrawal from Gudauta, he said. On Moldova, Kosachev argued
that limits established in CFE were accomplished by Russia in
2002. In response to a suggestion that the Russian
peacekeeping force in Moldova be transitioned into an
international force, Kosachev stated that "this has nothing
to do with CFE." A proposal to have parallel actions
involving movement on the Istanbul Commitments, while allies
work to ratify the Adapted CFE, was met with a comment that
"the impression of the Russian Ministry of Defense is that
your country does not want to adopt (Adapted) CFE and this is
a pretext to avoid it."

4. (SBU) Kosachev warned that peacekeepers in Moldova should
be kept out of the discussion. In his view, peacekeepers are
separate from a discussion on Transnistria's political
status. "The issue of Russians guarding munitions is not
worth a loss of confidence, ruining a treaty and our
bilateral relationship."

-----------------
DOMESTIC POLITICS
-----------------

5. (SBU) Kosachev, a member of the ruling United Russia (YR)
party, said "everyone" had hoped Putin would join their
party's list but no one knew for sure -- including party
leaders -- until Putin made his announcement. It was a
"personal decision," Kosachev said. "It makes our life
harder, not easier, because we must meet a high level of
(expectation)." According to him, a simple majority was
realistic, but a constitutional majority will be more
difficult. He said internal polls have shown a 5-6 percent
increase in support which is not enough for a constitutional
majority.

6. (SBU) Kosachev predicted that the pro-Kremlin Just Russia
party could receive only 5-6 percent of the vote, according
to polls conducted by YR. "They are not popular and now it
will be even more difficult," Kosachev said. He attributed
the party's problems to the collection of diverse parties
that merged to become Just Russia. "They were not prepared to
compromise," he said.

MOSCOW 00005092 002.2 OF 002

7. (SBU) Although no one knows what the Duma will look like
after the election, Kosachev said there could be a merger of
the International Affairs and CIS committees. Kosachev would
not say for sure whether he would keep his position as
Chairman. He expressed continued interest in pursuing
interparliamentary contacts and said the Hyde/Lantos format
had worked well.

--------------------
WTO, IRAN AND KOSOVO
--------------------

8. (SBU) Kosachev said outstanding WTO-related legislation
will be in no danger when it comes to the Duma. Experts have
followed the discussions closely and are aware of the need to
ensure that Russian legislation is compatible with WTO
requirements, he said.

9. (SBU) On Iran, Kosachev characterized the IAEA "plan" as
"functional," noting that Iran has made progress on several
issues in the action plan. Kosachev asserted that as long as
Iran continued to cooperate with the IAEA, additional
pressure on the regime will only undermine the international
community's efforts.

10. (SBU) Kosachev criticized the U.S. timeline for Kosovo's
independence, arguing that fallout over the issue could
poison U.S.-Russian relations. He did not rule out GOR
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in response and
concluded that "you are trapped if you continue to approach
it this way."

11. (U) This telegram has been cleared by NSC Senior Director
Warlick and EUR DAS Kramer.
Burns

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
World Headlines

 

Gordon Campbell: On The Washington Riot And The Georgia Results
Hong Kong and Washington DC. On the same morning, the tyrants in power in Beijing and their counterpart in the White House have shown how they refuse to accept the legitimacy of any different points of view, and the prospect of losing power… More>>

WHO: Vaccination No Guarantee Of Virus Eradication

In the final World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 press conference of the year, on Monday, senior officials warned that the virus is 'not necessarily the big one', and that there is a real chance of another, more serious pandemic spreading ... More>>

Covid: Two Billion COVID Vaccine Doses Secured, WHO Says End Of Pandemic Is In Sight

The end of the pandemic is in sight but we must not let our guard down, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday, as he welcomed the news that the global vaccine partnership COVAX has lined up almost two billion doses of existing ... More>>

UN: Guterres To Seek Second Five-year Term
António Guterres will be seeking a second five-year term as UN Secretary-General, which would begin in January 2022.... More>>


UN Rights Office: Iran Execution Of Child Offender Breaks International Law

The execution of an Iranian man for a crime allegedly committed when he was 16 years old has been condemned by the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) and raised concerns over violations of his right to a fair trial. In a statement released on Thursday, ... More>>

UN News: Fighting Displaces Over 500,000 In Northern Mozambique, Reports UN Refuge Agency

Attacks by armed groups in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia and Niassa provinces have displaced more than 530,000 people, many of whom have been forced to move multiple times, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) said on Friday. According to ... More>>