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Cablegate: (C) Yukos Finance Buyer: No Pre-Arranged Deal With

VZCZCXRO0388
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #5173/01 2991327
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261327Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4879
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHSL/AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA PRIORITY 0220
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005173

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
NSC FOR MCKIBBEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2017
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: (C) YUKOS FINANCE BUYER: NO PRE-ARRANGED DEAL WITH
ROSNEFT

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 561
B. BRATISLAVA 420

Classified By: Econ MC Eric Schultz for Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

1. (C) One of the major investors behind the August 15
purchase of Yukos Finance assets at auction told us October
23 that the investors hoped to "unwind" the various lawsuits
and other claims against the company. They planned to use
the $1.5 billion in cash assets and the 49% stake in
Slovakia's Transpetrol to settle the debt claims, leaving
them with a substantial profit. He added that the investors
intended to sell the Transpetrol stake but had no
pre-arranged deal with Rosneft. End Summary.

---------------------------------
VERY COMPLICATED, VERY PROFITABLE
---------------------------------

2. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX (Amcit, protect), XXXXXXXXXXXX of
Renaissance Capital, confirmed October 23 that Renaissance
and Amcit investor Richard Dietz were the financial backers
of Monte Valle, the investment firm which bought Yukos
Finance at auction on August 15. Monte Valle's owner, Amcit
Steve Lynch, had profitably purchased a previous Yukos lot.
XXXXXXXXXXXX said Renaissance had been brought in by Lynch.

3. (C) According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, the main assets of Yukos
Finance are about $1.5 billion in cash and a 49% stake in
Slovakia's Transpetrol, which XXXXXXXXXXXX indicated has a market
value of $100-150 million. Those assets are currently tied
up in lawsuits, including especially a suit by Yukos
International (former Yukos Finance) directors Dave Godfrey
and Bruce Misamore, both Amcits, who are claiming the Yukos
bankruptcy proceedings were illegitimate. The assets are
also offset by debt claims from creditors Rosneft and another
investment group, Menatep (reftels).

4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said Monte Valle already has an agreement in
place with Rosneft and Menatep to settle the debts and drop
various related lawsuits. He said it would cost about $1.25
billion to retire the debts. In addition, a Dutch court is
expected to rule on October 31 on Godfrey and Misamore,s
suit. If the investors are able to successfully "unwind" the
various claims and lawsuits, and to sell the Transpetrol
stake for market value, XXXXXXXXXXXX said they stand to make a
profit of $50 - $100 million on their approximately $300
million investment in the purchase.

-------------------------
SELLING TRANSPETROL STAKE
-------------------------

5. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that contrary to widespread speculation,
Monte Valle had not been acting as a proxy for Rosneft and
the deal in place was simply to settle the debts and related
lawsuits. There was, for instance, no agreement to sell or
turnover to Rosneft the pipeline stake. That said, none of
the investors were interested in keeping the asset. On the
contrary, XXXXXXXXXXXX said, they needed to sell it for a
"material sum" to realize their profits. Rosneft was a
potential purchaser of the stake, but it was just one of many.

6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that given the continuing uncertainties
surrounding Yukos Finance's assets, the investors have yet to
focus on the sale of the stake in Transpetrol. He indicated
the investors were wary of the political interest in the
pipeline stake. They might be interested in a "negotiated
solution" (as suggested in ref A) but only at a market price.
Moreover, they were also sensitive to the reaction of the
Russian government.

-------
COMMENT
-------

7. (C) The investors are planning on a quick and profitable
deal and in that regard selling the Transpetrol stake for
market value would seem to be a key. They are therefore
unlikely to be willing to sell to anyone at a discount and
would not want politics to interfere in their purely
commercial affair. On a general note, this complex deal is
typical of Yukos "auctions." The owners, purchasers and
details all tend to be very opaque, often deliberately, and
all involved tend to profit handsomely from the demise of
Yukos. End Comment.
Burns

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