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Cablegate: End of the Diet Session November, December Or

VZCZCXRO7436
OO RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #4678 2780357
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 050357Z OCT 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8297
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9370
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2386
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 5424
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 3574
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 5986
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 7233
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 4295
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 6691
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUETIAA/DIRNSA FORT GEORGE G MEADE MD
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DISA WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/USFJ

UNCLAS TOKYO 004678

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

OSD FOR S. BASSELLER, DEPT. PLEASE PASS TO USTR/MBEEMAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV JA
SUBJECT: END OF THE DIET SESSION NOVEMBER, DECEMBER OR
JANUARY 2008


1. (SBU) Summary. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has
declared its intention to introduce a new bill authorizing
the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of OEF.
The introduction and timing of this new bill create the
possibility that the current extraordinary Diet session will
extend into 2008. An extension also depends heavily on
tactics by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in
the Upper House. Three scenarios drawn from the Japanese
press for the end of the session are outlined below. End
summary.

2. (SBU) In the first scenario, the new anti-terrorism
legislation is submitted to the Lower House on October 10 and
the old legislation expires November 1. The Diet session
ends on time on November 10 without enacting the new
legislation, but discussions will continue when the regular
session starts in January.

3. (SBU) In the second scenario, the first two steps remain
the same -- new legislation is submitted and the old
legislation expires. The new legislation then is passed in
the Lower House but vetoed by the DPJ-controlled Upper House
without delay, after which it returns to the Lower House
where the veto is over-ridden by the ruling coalition's
two-thirds supermajority. This scenario likely would prolong
the session into mid-December.

4. (SBU) In the third scenario, the Upper House chooses to do
nothing on the new legislation, which triggers a 60-day
waiting period. After 60 days, the legislation is returned
to the Lower House where it is passed with a two-thirds vote.
The soonest the legislation is likely to go to the Upper
House is around November 10, which means the legislation does
not return to the Lower House until around January 9. A Diet
session running through the New Year and abutting the start
of the January regular session is virtually unprecedented.
DONOVAN

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